MLB 2019

[GhostMachine]

True. Because unless something catastrophic happens, I don't see any other team winning that division. 

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

Yeah, except with two wildcards, you can finish well behind the Dodgers now and still make the playoffs. 

[Meacon Keaton]

Newest Met Jed Lowrie is gonna have an MRI on his knee. It doesn’t sound like they’re expecting a good result.

[Lowerdeck]

2 hours ago, Meacon said:

Newest Met Jed Lowrie is gonna have an MRI on his knee. It doesn’t sound like they’re expecting a good result.

 

That was fast

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

That's too bad. Their jerseys are fantastic. 

[VerbalPuke]

Tigers signed a guy named Josh Harrison from Pittsburgh. Our fans seem happy with it.

[gunnar hendershow]

7 minutes ago, VerbalPuke said:

Tigers signed a guy named Josh Harrison from Pittsburgh. Our fans seem happy with it.

Harrison fell off a cliff last year but he's a good bounceback candidate and if he does they have someone they could easily flip in July.

[Meacon Keaton]

I like Josh Harrison. I'm much more happy with DJ LeMahieu, but I would not have been upset with Josh Harrison had the Yanks gone that route. 

[gunnar hendershow]

Machado is officially a Padre. It's reported he is going to be the everyday 3B for them, which is a turn of events from an entire year of "I want to play SS". But I guess when you're offered $300 million you go where they want you to.

Also I saw a picture of a Machado jersey for sale and it was in the brown and mustard and I must say, quite beautiful. He's gonna look good in those come 2020.

[The Buscher]

5 hours ago, Meacon said:

Newest Met Jed Lowrie is gonna have an MRI on his knee. It doesn’t sound like they’re expecting a good result.

The MRI revealed no significant damage, so that’s good.  He estimated he’d only need around 40 plate appearances in spring to get ready so with five weeks to go until Opening Day there’s plenty of time for that.  I imagine they’ll hold him out of games for a few weeks.

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Meacon said:

I like Josh Harrison. I'm much more happy with DJ LeMahieu, but I would not have been upset with Josh Harrison had the Yanks gone that route. 

Well, DJ said he prefered the Yankees jerseys and Josh said, 'yeah, the Tigers are alright'. So that's how that worked out. 

But yeah, I think that's a great pick-up for the Tigers. He offers a lot of versatility and if he can bounce back with the bat, he's a fantastic trade chip for them. 

[VerbalPuke]

Ok, I’m really not quite used to how teams rebuild in baseball. If he’s young and plays good isn’t he worth building around? At some point shouldn’t they start setting building blocks in place?

[Gabriel]

Just now, VerbalPuke said:

Ok, I’m really not quite used to how teams rebuild in baseball. If he’s young and plays good isn’t he worth building around? At some point shouldn’t they start setting building blocks in place?

It all comes down to years of team control, basically. A guy can be younger, but if he's been playing long enough, won't have much team control left before he's eligible to be a free agent, and by proxy, rake in the big dollar contracts.

So a lot of teams now are looking at that when considering what their window for contention might be. If someone is young and a star, but they'll be making a lot of money before your window for contention opens up, under the current CBA rules, it just makes sense to ship them out for younger prospects who will be under team control for longer. The problem comes in being able to forecast that. Some teams end up in what seems like a never-ending rebuild because they misjudge their window, or because they panic and move out a player for a lesser return because they know that they won't want to spend what it costs to keep him when he hits free agency eligibility.

It's a very delicate balancing act, but it makes sense, because holding onto guys for too long has proven to set back quite a few teams. It's worth arguing that may actually be the reason for Toronto's decline, because they held onto guys out of loyalty or because they thought they were more likely to contend than they actually were, and when it came time to move those declining superstars, it was too little, too late, and the return was mediocre.

[gunnar hendershow]

9 hours ago, Gabriel said:

It all comes down to years of team control, basically. A guy can be younger, but if he's been playing long enough, won't have much team control left before he's eligible to be a free agent, and by proxy, rake in the big dollar contracts.

So a lot of teams now are looking at that when considering what their window for contention might be. If someone is young and a star, but they'll be making a lot of money before your window for contention opens up, under the current CBA rules, it just makes sense to ship them out for younger prospects who will be under team control for longer. The problem comes in being able to forecast that. Some teams end up in what seems like a never-ending rebuild because they misjudge their window, or because they panic and move out a player for a lesser return because they know that they won't want to spend what it costs to keep him when he hits free agency eligibility.

It's a very delicate balancing act, but it makes sense, because holding onto guys for too long has proven to set back quite a few teams. It's worth arguing that may actually be the reason for Toronto's decline, because they held onto guys out of loyalty or because they thought they were more likely to contend than they actually were, and when it came time to move those declining superstars, it was too little, too late, and the return was mediocre.

Baltimore did the same thing. In the summer of 2017 we could all see that the window was firmly shut. We had Machado with a year and a half left, Britton with a year and a half left, Brach with a year and a half left, etc. Waited a full year on all of them and diminished the return. In fact we had a deal in place with Houston to send Britton their way and it got vetoed from the top (as happens in Baltimore). We could have easily sent Machado to New York at the deadline in 2017 or that offseason and had our pick of the litter, but then the Stanton trade happened and blew up those plans. Now the Orioles are truly starting from square one, and while it's nice to completely bottom out and cling to nothing from the past it does mean it's going to take a lot longer than it otherwise would have.

Some of the more consistently average-to-good teams like St. Louis, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Cleveland have kept a regular cycle going where they have a pipeline of younger players set to come in regularly. But most teams just don't operate that way, gutting their farm system when they have "a window", misjudging it, and then cratering for half a decade.

And there are serious competitive balance issues with the way teams don't plan to compete for years on end. It screws with free agents, with veterans seeking long deals going unsigned well into February and March since teams don't want to commit money to anyone. It's more sound strategically to do a ground-up rebuild, giving you 4-5 years of full control for most of your entire core, but the years before that core is ready are rough for fans. While people like me are going to show up and watch the team anyway, most people are going to take their disposable income and use it on something else. And who can blame them?

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

This free agency debacle is a bit weird because guys are hitting free agency younger than ever. Someone like Machado does makes sense to sign and build around because he's young enough that he could feasibly hit free agency again when guys used to hit free agency. Teams used to sign guys in their prime and pay big, knowing there might be a significant drop off at the end of the contract (re: Pujols, Albert). I could see why teams would be more hesitant to give out those contracts but the Machado contract makes more sense I think. 

[The Buscher]

Marwin Gonzalez to the Twins.  2 years, $21 million.  He was said to be seeking north of $50 million at the start of free agency.

[Meacon Keaton]

Aren’t we all.

[Draevyn]

I feel like now that Machado has been signed, some people are going to start really settling so that they have a job this season at least.

[gunnar hendershow]

6 hours ago, Eric Buschenhagen said:

Marwin Gonzalez to the Twins.  2 years, $21 million.  He was said to be seeking north of $50 million at the start of free agency.

I thought for sure he'd get years and money. Twins might have gotten themselves a steal. Guy is a 2+ WAR player in 3/4 of the amount of PA as most guys.

[Meacon Keaton]

For an era where teams want guys that are versatile enough to play three or four different positions, it is odd that he didn’t get a better offer than that. Good for the Twinkie’s.