MLB 2019-2020 Offseason Thread

[The Buscher]

Nats:  We just won the World Series, gave Strasburg $245 million and are highly active on the market
Braves:  We won the division last year, signed a bunch of good relievers and are active in pursuing a frontline starter and bat
Phillies:  We're trying to get over the hump by spending big money on a manager, giving Wheeler $118 million, signed Didi, and are still in on the big name 3B in free agency and trade
Mets:  We need to clear salary if we want to trade for Starling Marte or sign a reliever

[Meacon Keaton]

3 minutes ago, Ct1021 said:

I guess I just tend to be a little pessimistic about contracts like this. Everything may seem great now but injuries, slumps, performance declines, etc can always derail even the most stacked teams.

While, yes, he's not going to be the same player he is for nine years, he can be the same guy he is for the next three or four years, and win two or three rings, then it's worth it. Don't worry about what's going to happen in 2028, and instead be excited about what can happen in 2020!

[Gabriel]

5 minutes ago, Forky said:

So maybe I'm an idiot when it comes to baseball but the Jays had both Happ and Price in the past and they didn't exactly like the world on fire. I mean Happ more so than Price but I'm not sure why we'd want them to come back at this point in time.

The Jays need arms in the rotation that can provide average or better innings. Happ and Price are both on the decline, but are better options than a lot of the guys who are still left in free agency when you factor in talent versus acquisition cost.

The only remaining name that would be worth overspending on in free agency is Dallas Keuchel. You can include Hyun-Jin Ryu in that discussion, but it is heavily believed that he will be re-signing with the Dodgers. Everyone else who is still left as a free agent would cost us more than Happ and Price would, and they wouldn't provide much better pitching. It's also worth considering that Happ only has the one season left on his deal, so his spot would be free next off-season for another potential free agent pickup when the team has a better idea of what the kids can do with a full year on the team. Price is signed for three more seasons, but the Red Sox are committed to cutting their salary and would likely pick up a large portion of the $32 million per season that he is owed. I believe his opt-out clause has expired, so if they acquired him, the Jays would more or less be stuck with him.

That being said, Price pitched to a 4.28 ERA last season in the AL East, which would be a fine average for a 3-4 starter on the Jays this year. There's also the possibility that last year was an anomaly and that he'll slide back down below the 4.00 mark. He's 34, but Happ is 37 and proven that aging pitchers can still deliver the goods.

Slight correction... Happ has one year left, but the contract has a vesting option for an additional year if he throws 165 innings or starts 27 games. Still though, even if it's Happ for two years, if the Yankees eat a large portion of his remaining money and/or send a quality prospect or two along with him to Toronto, it's a steal of a deal.

The Jays need guys who can eat innings and not put the kids in bad positions every other game. They also need to make sure that they aren't over-spending in money and contract length for guys who won't be around when the window of contention re-opens. Most of the guys who are still available through free agency are looking for dollars and term that would put the Jays in a bad position when they believe they can contend. Better to find some stop-gaps now who won't hamper us long-term, than to just throw money and term at guys who won't be part of the future in hopes of fielding a competitive starting staff in 2020... or worse even, not even try for 2020 and stick to the same old method of waiting out the market and signing guys who become desperate for a contract.

It's a delicate balancing act right now. They need to provide quality teammates for the core group who can help cultivate them as professionals and keep the team from being a complete loser... but they also need to worry about not putting themselves in any sticky contract situations with guys who won't be able to contribute come contention time, or whose contracts would basically be blocking the team from being able to add meaningful free agents in future off-seasons.

Like I mentioned earlier, they should back up a truck of money to the Keuchel house-hold... but in regards to what's remaining out there on the market, Happ and Price would provide better value overall to the Blue Jays due to their past history, ability to eat innings, veteran leadership, controllable cost and short-term contracts at 1 or 2 years for Happ, and 3 for Price.

[Meacon Keaton]

I can almost guarantee you that Toronto will not get a 'quality prospect' along with Happ in a trade deal. Cashman is shrewd with prospects. He'd most likely rather keep Happ another year than give up a worthwhile prospect. It's not like Happ has three or four more years on the contract. It's up after next year, since they won't be using him as a full-time starter. They'd ride out the last year of his contract, because injuries happen after all. 

But I also don't understand your pitch for Keuchel though. I don't think Toronto is close to competing, so giving up a "truckload of money" for him doesn't make any sense. Toronto needs to stay on the course they're on and go big on a free agent pitcher in two or three years when they're closer to competing in the East. 

[The Buscher]

Houston has been reaching out to virtually every marquee free agent and they've been getting told flat out that the players aren't interested.

For a team that was a win away from a second World Series in three years, the fact that nobody wants to play there which speaks volumes about how much concern there is on the potential sanctions.  I wonder if MLB actually would enforce a postseason ban.

[Meacon Keaton]

The Mets are close to signing Michael Wacha Wacha

[Gabriel]

11 minutes ago, Meacon say “Feliz Navidad” said:

I can almost guarantee you that Toronto will not get a 'quality prospect' along with Happ in a trade deal. Cashman is shrewd with prospects. He'd most likely rather keep Happ another year than give up a worthwhile prospect. It's not like Happ has three or four more years on the contract. It's up after next year, since they won't be using him as a full-time starter. They'd ride out the last year of his contract, because injuries happen after all. 

But I also don't understand your pitch for Keuchel though. I don't think Toronto is close to competing, so giving up a "truckload of money" for him doesn't make any sense. Toronto needs to stay on the course they're on and go big on a free agent pitcher in two or three years when they're closer to competing in the East. 

Happ at half his salary is a good target for the Jays if the Yankees are looking to unload him. A prospect would be nice, and that's been rumored in the dirtsheets, but getting a guy like Happ at $7.5 for one or two years is better than what remains on the market.

Keuchel is 31 and may not be a top arm when the Jays are ready to contend. I am fully aware of that, but the Jays need to give something to their roster to show them that they aren't content with just waiting. The young offense that we have, with a full season under them, could potentially break out as a wild card team with the proper pieces around them... of course, if all that the Jays do is plug holes with the leftovers again, that is going to make life incredibly more difficult for these guys who should be given the confidence of their management.

You can't build a losing culture around a rebuilding team. Yeah, they're going to lose. Probably a lot. But those players need that vote of confidence from their management. They need to believe that they can compete with any other team. I can't imagine it's easy to ward off any potential negative effects of being a top graded young talent on a team that won't add because they essentially just don't believe in you.

Keuchel would be a huge "vote-of-confidence" signing for the Jays' young players. If it doesn't work out, maybe they can flip him to a non AL-East team for prospects at some point. Not going out and adding an impact arm for these guys is just asking for trouble. At best, the offense delivers and the pitching sinks the team. At worst, the pitching sinks the team and the young bats lose confidence in themselves, further pushing the window of contention into the future.

We got a pro-rated look at the Blue Jays offense last season, as most of our starters didn't play the full year with the club. These guys are dangerous. They have consistency issues, but those wouldn't be anywhere near as apparent if the team had any kind of pitching outside of Shoemaker and Giles. If they ensure that the team feels like they are believed in by the management, and they bring in a big addition for them, they won't win the AL East, but they very well could surprise and be playing meaningful baseball in late-August.

[Meacon Keaton]

I think if Toronto was closer to competing, I'd be with you. But I still don't think they'll be better than, at best, third in the AL East. Boston is shedding salary, but they're not going to fall off the face of the Earth. And Tampa and NY will be competing for the division. I think Toronto is a fourth place team again in 2020, which is why I don't see the sense in going for Keuchel. But you are thinking of a much higher ceiling apparently, so from your standpoint it does make sense. I just can't see them being as competitive as you do next year. 

[Your Mom]

Baseball owners are stupid and I hate them

[Gabriel]

13 minutes ago, Meacon say “Feliz Navidad” said:

I think if Toronto was closer to competing, I'd be with you. But I still don't think they'll be better than, at best, third in the AL East. Boston is shedding salary, but they're not going to fall off the face of the Earth. And Tampa and NY will be competing for the division. I think Toronto is a fourth place team again in 2020, which is why I don't see the sense in going for Keuchel. But you are thinking of a much higher ceiling apparently, so from your standpoint it does make sense. I just can't see them being as competitive as you do next year. 

Which is totally fair. I feel like they have an offensive potential this season that could overcome regular defensive shortcomings... but if they don't have a rotation good enough to limit the damage against, I feel very strongly that it would be detrimental to the development of the young core. If I were betting, I'd put them at fourth in the AL East to finish the year. They could wind up in last if the pitching is atrocious... but with the potential that they have on the team, and the results we've already seen from the lineup, I do believe that they could be in the hunt for a Wild Card spot as late as August if they get the pitching they need.

More so than immediate results, I think you have to look at the development of the core group of Jays players. As management/ownership, you absolutely cannot allow them to become used to a losing culture. Look to the NHL and the Edmonton Oilers. Look at how long it has taken them to steady the ship, and how many franchise altering prospects they brought in along the way who fell by the wayside or never reached their full potential. It's great to have one of baseball's top ranked prospect groups, and it's even better to see them breaking out in the Majors... but you need to be careful with how you cultivate them. They need a guy in the rotation who can be counted on to course-correct every five games if necessary.

Plus, it's not like they're spending much money right now anyways. Half the team is making peanuts. So bring in that course-corrector.... that guy whose addition shows the young players that management believes in them. At worst, they pay a bunch of money for a guy who gives the team the belief that they can win when he's out there, and it helps with their development. At best, he pushes them a little further along the rebuild by allowing those young players to have that swagger and that vote of confidence from the team.

Whether it's Keuchel or someone else. The Jays cannot allow their rotation to be as abysmal as last year, and they absolutely have to do something to show the young players that they believe that they can win now. Winning now isn't the necessary end-game here. What's important is that the team legitimately believes that they can compete with anybody, whether or not the results are there, and that they aren't playing behind a rotation that can't break the losing trends that will inevitably happen. They need guys on the mound who can stop a downward spiral before it gets out of control.

[The Buscher]

Blue Jays sign Tanner Roark.  2 years, $24 million.

[Gabriel]

16 minutes ago, Carlos Buschtran said:

Blue Jays sign Tanner Roark.  2 years, $24 million.

Not a bad start. Maybe a bit of an overpayment, but we knew that was going to have to happen for them to bring in any legitimate starters. The term is good too. He will be able to give the team solid innings over the course of the year. If he bounces back from last season, this could be a major steal for them. If he provides what he did last season, it's still better than what we had in Toronto.

So the rotation now looks like Roark, Chase Anderson, TBD, TBD and TBD.

They say they are wanting to get at least one more starter added. Keuchel would cost a lot, but would be the best possible addition. Happ and Price are more likely, given that they could be had for very little, and the Jays have a decent stockpile of position prospects.

[The Buscher]

Angels reportedly closing in on Rendon

[Meacon Keaton]

And it's official: 7-years $245 million for Rendon to the Los Angeles Anaheim California of Los Angeles Angels. 

[gunnar hendershow]

Wait since when is Rendon a starting pitcher?

[The Buscher]

Boras clients have combined to earn almost $900 million so far this offseason.

[Meacon Keaton]

That's almost $90 million in commission. So Merry Christmas, Scott Boras, as much as anybody. 

[gunnar hendershow]

He's the best to do it for a reason.

[Meacon Keaton]

No deferred money, no trade clause, and no opt-out for Rendon. 

[The Buscher]

When the Mets signed Michael Wacha to a 1-year deal yesterday, BVW identified him as "starter depth" which was odd as everyone assumed he was being signed to be the #5 starter.  Now today those comments make more sense as they've signed Rick Porcello to a 1-year, $10 million deal.

Wacha will presumably be going to the bullpen and be the swing guy who will jump into the rotation when someone gets hurt.  Either that or we're about to hear yet another round of Syndergaard trade rumors.