The Cycling Thread

[Animal]

That was a really fun stage, Cav did really well, smart victory for him. Contador and Mollema were very good too.

Froome still has quite a big lead but his team seems to be the biggest problem now. Doubt he'll ease to a victory. I really hope Mollema can be a serious threat but he probably can't follow Froome uphill. Contador is another story though, he seems to be getting in top form and if Froome ends up alone on a big climb or two, Contador might just take this one.

[ChrisSteeleAteMyHamster]

Going back a couple of days....Cavendish was not to blame as such. It was Veelers' fault for deviating. Cavendish did what similar sprinters (such as McEwen) have done in the past - gritted his teeth and kept to his line. He was just as likely to crash. It's not up to him to have to deviate a long way off his line after Veelers LOOKED BACK and saw him and so swerved into him after peeling off from setting up Kittel (who, by the way, is immensely likeable and very talented). All the old pros and cycling gurus will say the same. That was Veelers' fault and that is why he got into trouble for it.

The problem is, everyone who just watches the Tour and nothing else all season jumped on the incident when then have no idea of how sprinting (including rules and etiquette) works. So I'm going to pull the "I know what I'm talking about" card.

Although having said that, half of my top ten predictions have totally cracked and bottled it, especially on that first day in the mountains. Taaramae hasn't been on form recently and has looked useless. Pinot is now apparently scared of descents (and lost all his time on a couple), Van Garderen was found out early on, Evans is too old for explosive climbing (but can still hang on in a grind), Sanchez went to the Giro instead and did some good stuff there, Cunego will now be looking for stage wins in the Alps, Rolland has decided that the polka dot jersey is more likely (although that's mostly down to Europcar deciding whether to renew their sponsorship and so the team need coverage and jerseys to sway them - don't be surprised to see Voeckler making an attack in the final week), Schleck was looking good (MUCH better than the last 12 months) but time trialled worse than ever. De Gendt had problems early on so slipped back to chasing breakaways and so on. Rodriguez and Contador are performing but not quite sparkly enough. Valverde has been annoyingly good. I hope he fades in the Alps.

Froome has looked good. He's likeable and climbs far better than Wiggins can. I'll admit that he can probably win now but I'll still expect him to crack on one of the days in the Alps, or maybe up Ventoux. Dan Martin has been great and the two Belkin riders in the top five is lovely - I'm a big fan of Ten Dam especially. Mollema is a lovely rider too. Hope to see them there or abouts at the end.

[ChrisSteeleAteMyHamster]

My last week predictions are:

Garmin do something groovy on one of the days.

Cavendish wins another stage but only one more (hopefully the final one).

Sagan wins green (he can actually hang around on mountainous days to get the points).

Contador tries something (dunno if it will work though).

Quintana continues to look exciting, in the tradition of Columbian riders.

Valverde cracks at some point (hopefully).

Voeckler makes a big attack and wins or nearly wins a stage (with his tongue dangling out and riding as ugly as always if he's caught).

Rolland takes polka dots (in the last two years he's proven that in the Alps he's a stunning climber).

One of the Belkin riders makes the top five (but not both).

Rodriguez finishes top five.

Voigt gets into an attack in the Alps but doesn't win.

Cunego also takes on an attack and possibly DOES win as he can actually sprint....but probably won't win.

Check them off as we go folks!

[ChrisSteeleAteMyHamster]

Seeing as how I'm watching the Tour on a day's delay due to downloading stages from the internet to watch at my leisure, I just watched yesterday's stage 13 where Omega-Pharma Quickstep blew the peloton apart, dropping Kittel, before Valverde got a puncture and lost 9 minutes (huzzah) and Contador tried something which DID work....and Cavendish won the stage from the break. His first win from a break in the Tour. Lovely stuff and he spotted the move excellently. Loads of riders I like made that final break (as well as Contador).

So I can already check a few things off my list from yesterday:

Contador tried something (it worked).

Cav won a stage.

Valverde (kinda) cracked (well he lost time at least).

Stage 14 to catch up on and then the trip up Mont Ventoux which always blows the field apart. Four guys at most will make it up to the top together.

[GoN_]

Christopher Armstrong Froome... Even his time was similar to Lance's 2002 climb.

[ChrisSteeleAteMyHamster]

You do realise that technological developments and aerodynamic research in the last 10 years have increased efficiency by about 15%, especially among the UK/US/Australian teams who aren't so oldschool and stuck in the old ways as the European teams. The average rider can now post better times and speeds than 10 years ago, purely down to the equipment they use.

Also, we don't know how "good" the doping riders of the past actually were without doping. If I doped and blood transfused and rode up a mountain I'd still be minutes and minutes slower than the weakest rider at the Tour de France this year.

If you really really want to make doping comments, if anyone at Team Sky is doping then it's probably Brad Wiggins if you look at the numbers, development etc.

[GoN_]

You do realise that technological developments and aerodynamic research in the last 10 years have increased efficiency by about 15%, especially among the UK/US/Australian teams who aren't so oldschool and stuck in the old ways as the European teams. The average rider can now post better times and speeds than 10 years ago, purely down to the equipment they use.

Also, we don't know how "good" the doping riders of the past actually were without doping. If I doped and blood transfused and rode up a mountain I'd still be minutes and minutes slower than the weakest rider at the Tour de France this year.

If you really really want to make doping comments, if anyone at Team Sky is doping then it's probably Brad Wiggins if you look at the numbers, development etc.

Actually, this time I wasn't talking about doping. I really got vibes of Armstrong, who until recently was probably the guy I had the fondest memories. The biggest difference was just that Froome did it all almost without taking his ass off the seat. The guy as probably the oddest way of climbing I've seen for a while. Even the way he positions is hands in the bike is different of most riders. But his speed was amazing.

But, yes, I have a hard time trusting Froome's results, like I had with Wiggins or Contador. Explosive evolutions from one day to the other are usually what makes me doubtful. Which is a shame, because tonight was a really great mountain stage.

Edit: This might be the reason that my favorite tour since Armstrong's first retirement was the one that Evans won. That and probably the last two mountain stages with attacks from afar by Schleck and Contador.

Edited July 14, 2013 by GoN_

[ChrisSteeleAteMyHamster]

2011 was an absolutely stunning Tour that was sadly followed by 2012 which was a bit of a procession.

The best stuff about 2012 was what went on outside of the yellow jersey competition - the fight for the polka jersey, Sorensen off attacking every day, Millar's victory, Pinot's victory, the sprints, Rolland's climbing...

As for Froome, he is the ugliest climber out there right now. Soler (who won the polka jersey in 2007) was even worse to watch. Soler was all hunchbacked while Froome climbs like an octopus trying to peel an orange.

[Adam]

If you aren't going to be able to believe the results of the top riders at all then I'm not sure how you can even watch it anymore GoN. Might seem rich for me to stick up for the leaders in this sport on this day that Tyson Gay and Asafa Powell have been caught out but I remain optimistic when it comes to cycling.

Great ride by Froome today, he proved he can win this Tour with that performance today in my book.

[EddieG]

I'm not sure if it's just the fact the 2 of you are British that you are both 100% sure there's no doping involved, aren't you even the slightest bit suspicious?

[Adam]

Like I said, I don't feel there'd be much point watching if I thought that Froome/Wiggins or anyone were. I don't believe that these professional athletes would be stupid enough to dope now considering all that's come out in the last few years regarding the doping culture. I say this fully knowing that it hasn't stopped morons like Tyson Gay right in the very current day.

[EddieG]

Have there been any tests yet that have proven doping use? As far as I'm aware, it was Armstrong coming out and admitting, and then everybody else coming out and admitting/pointing fingers.

[GoN_]

I love to watch cycling. I've had years where I watched all the Ardennes Classics, the three GT's, the Tour of Portugal, the Tour of California... It's a blast to watch it, but yes, I've grown cynical over the years. I loved to watch Armstrong, Ullrich, Rasmussen, Vinokourov... Maybe that's the problem.

To me this tour is just like 2009. Amazing performances, that ten years ago would get me all pumped up, but now I just keep tracking the race, not believing in some of those guys. I still have a lot of fun most of the time (hell, I have a lot more fun watching sprint finishes now than before), but stages like today or the ITT to me were just too much.

[Adam]

Have there been any tests yet that have proven doping use? As far as I'm aware, it was Armstrong coming out and admitting, and then everybody else coming out and admitting/pointing fingers.

Tonnes of positive tests and clear truths about it - look up the details of the Operacion Puerto case.

Also, can see why you're cynical GoN certainly. I just think if it was me I wouldn't be able to still watch the sport if I had doubts over all the top riders. Got to believe that the current crop do, by and large, want to change that doping culture.

[ChrisSteeleAteMyHamster]

In answer to Eddie, I'm massively cynical about doping. Of course not as much as you should be with all the stuff coming out about Rabobank!

Thing is, I take a French perspective - rejoice in the panache and the beauty of cycling. Choose my heroes and support them and celebrate in mighty victories and near-misses. Then, if someone you support fails a doping test, you drop 'em. The apologetic lot (like Millar) deserve their one second chance that cyclists get. The unapologetic (Valverde, Contador, Ricco, Vinokourov etc) get no love from me.

However there are patterns you can look into with regards to training, peaking, oxygen, heart rate etc so there are certainly riders you can tell ARE clean and those who are more suspicious.

[EddieG]

Rabobank? What's that? Never heard of it.

[GoN_]

I miss one stage and this happens...

[GoN_]

[Lineker]

Chris Froome has effectively won the Tour.

[GoN_]

Yes, and Nairo Quintana got second, and the white and polka dot jerseys.

It was a really great Tour, even with the first place known since the ITT.