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2017 MLB Thread


Meacon Keaton

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11 hours ago, Astro Forky said:

Who can throw away wins better than the Blue Jays? NOBODY!

This team really needs a kick in the ass but I'm not sure what's going to help them. That management shake-up last year seems to have done them in at least for now.

Honestly, I think it's just been a bad year. There are definitely questionable moves last off-season, but I feel like the team they have is pretty solid overall. All they really have to do this winter is unload guys who just aren't contributing anymore and reload. There is a lot of talent on the farm, and despite what the media would have you believe, the new management team did a really good job of acquiring needed pieces without selling low on guys that could net a bigger return in the off-season, or who could bounce back next year.

Even with this awful season happening, the Jays are only five and a half games back of the Wildcard. They won't make it this season, but you don't blow up a team that is still that close to the playoffs, especially when their most talented players are still young enough to not be lumped in with any of the "age concern" players. I feel like letting Bautista walk in the off-season is the best move, unless he is willing to take a pay cut and not be an every day player anymore. I'd love to keep his spirit and leadership, but you can't pay and play him like he's hitting .275 and belting 30 homers a year.

My major focus in the winter would be adding established and consistent arms to the rotation and the bullpen, finding a set-up guy for Osuna who can step in and be a closer if Osuna falters temporarily, and adding some speed on the base-paths, and some pop from the batter's box. Luckily, teams aren't over-paying home run hitters anymore, so it should be a little bit easier this year to add that kind of player than previously.

Depth, speed, power and consistent pitching are the big needs for the off-season.

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Fun baseball facts. Mike Trout hit a home run on his birthday yesterday, the 4th time he has done so in 6 years.

Bryce Harper hit his 150th home run at 24 years and 295 days old, the exact same age as Mike Trout when he hit his 150th home run.

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1 hour ago, Meacon said:

I really, really, really hope both of those guys can stay healthy throughout their careers. They're both potential 3500 hits/600 home run threats.

Honestly, I expect Trout to break Rose's hit record. He's nearly half way there after six years and minus his thumb injury hasn't missed any significant time, he obviously looks after himself. If he stays healthy I'd put good money on that record falling.

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Speaking of records, I genuinely think Harper has got a shot at the all time HR record - even moreso if he goes to the Bronx after next year.  He'll only be 26 on Opening Day 2018 - give him a dozen years in that ballpark with that sweet left-handed stroke and he could be deadly.

For perspective, Bonds entered his age 26 season with 117 home runs.  Harper's already way eclipsed that.  Hell even if you add Bonds' age 26 season he's already eclipsed it.  If he stays healthy - look out.

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23 minutes ago, Meacon said:

He's not even a quarter of the way to Rose's hit record. :P 

I'd be very surprised if he broke it. But if he stays healthy and continues to take care of himself, four-thousand hits may not be out of the question, assuming he plays into his mid-40s.

Yeah. I got myself SUPER confused. Oops.

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That's what makes me even more sold on the possibility of Harper.  He's got more raw natural power than pre-roid Bonds did and he could put up several 50+ HR seasons in the right ballpark.

Frankly I'd just be happy to get him the hell out of the NL East after next year.  And he can take Murphy with him.

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Trout won't break Rose's record unless he hangs on for a few too many years as a compiler, like Rose did. But Trout getting to 4000 hits? It's in the realm of possibility if he stays healthy. I'm curious to see if Trout evolves into a late career singles hitter guy or if he's still expected to be contributing doubles and homers. Lot of that depends on the team and manager he has. But if he slots in as a leadoff singles hitter in his career's twilight he can reach 4000. All told, he probably comes to around a Hank Aaron total.

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So as a non-American fan of American sports I'll admit to not be fully clued up with a lot of the rules re: salaries and so on. Now I mention this as I assume GhostMachine's frustration with the Yankees comes from their 'buying' titles.

But given there isn't a salary cap in baseball to my eyes it has always been the most level playing field of North American sports (at least in terms of who wins/challenges each year). I've only followed the sports for about ten years though. Has it always been this way where a team can come out of no where to suddenly contend?

I can generally predict the top teams year to year for football, basketball, etc. but baseball? All I ever know with any certainty is the Angels won't give Trout the team he deserves.

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I had a very long, in-depth post written up going into the history of free agency and the amateur draft, but it somehow disappeared while I went to the bathroom. :( 

Basically free agency was the huge game-changer in regards to baseball. Teams like the Yankees, and Dodgers, and Red Sox will always be somewhat competitive due to the amount of money they're able to spend on free agents. But before free agency, it was 100% about scouting and player development. The Yankees were good because they had lots of money, so they could afford the best coaches to develop their young players, and they could afford hundreds of scouts to search every corner of the country for the very best players. 

Prior to the inception of free agency, the Athletics won three straight World Series titles in 1972, 1973, and 1974. They did that by building an incredible system with the likes of Rollie Fingers, Catfish Hunter, and Reggie Jackson. Of course in 1977, Reggie Jackson became the first "mega" free agent when he signed with the Yankees for a whopping (at the time) 5-year $3 million contract. It's no coincidence that the Yankees won the World Series in 1977, their first championship in fifteen years, thanks in large part to, you guessed it, former Oakland Athletic Reggie Jackson and his three home runs in the series clinching Game Six. From that point forward, free agency has pretty much ruled the roost. As for the Oakland Athletics? They've only won one World Series since free agency, and that was in 1989, compared to the eight titles they won prior to free agency. 

In short, have teams always been able to suddenly contend? No. Prior to free agency teams would have to trade for superstars if they didn't already have one, and if they hadn't scouted well, they wouldn't have had the players to trade them away for. Free agency, though favoring the wealthy teams (capitalism at it's finest), it has allowed teams a chance to at least jump in with both feet and try to push for a spot in the playoffs. Obviously proper scouting and player development is still essential, but if you pay attention to teams and their farm systems, you can kind of get an idea for how good a team can be in the future. When Theo Epstein took over the Cubs, all the moves he made to boost their farm system made it obvious that the Cubs were going to be good in the future. Just how good and how quickly they got really good was a surprise to most of us, but all the talent they had acquired made it seem like it was only a matter of time anyway. 

So if you follow minor leagues, and teams prospects, and the free agency signing period, it makes it a little easier to 'predict'. But at the same time, baseball is such a beautiful game of percentages that even the most likely of outcomes is very, very far from a guarantee. 

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25 minutes ago, Meacon said:

I had a very long, in-depth post written up going into the history of free agency and the amateur draft, but it somehow disappeared while I went to the bathroom. :( 

Basically free agency was the huge game-changer in regards to baseball. Teams like the Yankees, and Dodgers, and Red Sox will always be somewhat competitive due to the amount of money they're able to spend on free agents. But before free agency, it was 100% about scouting and player development. The Yankees were good because they had lots of money, so they could afford the best coaches to develop their young players, and they could afford hundreds of scouts to search every corner of the country for the very best players. 

Prior to the inception of free agency, the Athletics won three straight World Series titles in 1972, 1973, and 1974. They did that by building an incredible system with the likes of Rollie Fingers, Catfish Hunter, and Reggie Jackson. Of course in 1977, Reggie Jackson became the first "mega" free agent when he signed with the Yankees for a whopping (at the time) 5-year $3 million contract. It's no coincidence that the Yankees won the World Series in 1977, their first championship in fifteen years, thanks in large part to, you guessed it, former Oakland Athletic Reggie Jackson and his three home runs in the series clinching Game Six. From that point forward, free agency has pretty much ruled the roost. As for the Oakland Athletics? They've only won one World Series since free agency, and that was in 1989, compared to the eight titles they won prior to free agency. 

In short, have teams always been able to suddenly contend? No. Prior to free agency teams would have to trade for superstars if they didn't already have one, and if they hadn't scouted well, they wouldn't have had the players to trade them away for. Free agency, though favoring the wealthy teams (capitalism at it's finest), it has allowed teams a chance to at least jump in with both feet and try to push for a spot in the playoffs. Obviously proper scouting and player development is still essential, but if you pay attention to teams and their farm systems, you can kind of get an idea for how good a team can be in the future. When Theo Epstein took over the Cubs, all the moves he made to boost their farm system made it obvious that the Cubs were going to be good in the future. Just how good and how quickly they got really good was a surprise to most of us, but all the talent they had acquired made it seem like it was only a matter of time anyway. 

So if you follow minor leagues, and teams prospects, and the free agency signing period, it makes it a little easier to 'predict'. But at the same time, baseball is such a beautiful game of percentages that even the most likely of outcomes is very, very far from a guarantee. 

Thanks for this. :D

Also, as you seem to be a man in the know, where is the best place to find long form baseball journalism? I used to read a lot over at Grantland and visit The Ringer now but is there any other places I can find similar bits?

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1 minute ago, The Chiksrara Special said:

I used to "hate" the Yanks too but now that we finally won I don't really care. Plus we had a mutually beneficial trade with Meacon's boys that helped push us over the top :D 

 

Maybe GM is a Mariners fan? :P

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6 minutes ago, Twist said:

Thanks for this. :D

Also, as you seem to be a man in the know, where is the best place to find long form baseball journalism? I used to read a lot over at Grantland and visit The Ringer now but is there any other places I can find similar bits?

I guess it depends on what you're looking for, and if you're willing to pay for any of it. Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, Fangraphs, SABR, MLB Trade Rumors, Beyond the Boxscore, and it's not really journalism, but I think the only other website I spend as much time on as I do EWB, www.baseball-reference.com  Easily my favorite non-EWB website. It's not a website that will keep you update on the day-to-day goings on of 2017, but it's where I do a lot of studying on the history of the game. I know what I've seen in my lifetime, but I love going back and learning more about the unknowns of the 20's or 30's or even 60's and 70's. Everyone knows about Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle, but just studying up on the 60's Yankees has given me a love for the amazing defenseman that was Clete Boyer. :)

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