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The 2018/19 NHL Thread!


Ruki

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The Flames had an awful game last night. Game two wasn't one they necessarily deserved to win, but they played well enough to keep it close. Last night, they stopped skating as soon as the two man advantage hit in the first period.

Going back to what I mentioned prior to the post-season, Bill Peters hasn't been juggling his lines enough to get something going. For tomorrow's game, I'd split everyone. Derek Ryan should center a top line of Gaudreau and Tkachuk... get Monahan working with Sam Bennett and Garnet Hathway... Jankowski can center James Neal and Elias Lindholm.. see if something works.

The only change made from game two to three was moving Andersson to the top pairing with Giordano... which blew my mind. Not that he doesn't deserve it, but more in the sense that, it's been more about needing to get guys going, as opposed to anything else, and keeping the same forward lines together, while mixing up two of the defense pairings, isn't really going to generate much spark to ignite the offense.

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13 hours ago, damsher hatfield said:

I don't even know why you do that if you're Svechnikov. You're the young future of an entire franchise trying to prove what exactly? Ovechkin doesn't fight because he's too important to the team, you should go out there with the same mindset. His head smacked off the ice when he fell so I hope he's okay.

Also welcome to the NHL Cale Makar, scoring a goal in his debut. Love the rare instances of a guy going straight from his college team into the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hockey's the only sport where it happens.

Calgary really crapped the bed last night too. Letting Colorado get off 50+ shots is going to end badly no matter who is in goal. Smith didn't play poorly judging by the box score but there's only so much you can do when you're under a constant barrage all game.

Game worked out for the Canes after the fact though. Hopefully he isn't too hurt.

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Flames played much better in game 4 than game 3, but at the same time, they're not playing anywhere near the level they did during the regular season. The only player matching or outplaying his regular season is Mike Smith. You could make an argument for Giordano and Bennett as well, but everyone else just isn't going like they can.

Now they're on the brink of elimination. Winning three in a row to take the series is going to be very difficult, but the Avs just won three in a row to put us in this spot, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

The major thing I've noticed is that they're trying to be too pretty in the offensive zone. Grubauer has been every bit as good as Smith in this series, but the Flames miss too many chances by holding the puck too long, or passing instead of shooting. Coaches say it all the time, but just get the puck on net. Especially in the playoffs. Get the puck on net, cause havoc for the goalie, look for deflections and rebounds... and stop passing the puck when you have traffic and a lane to get the shot through. Just get it there.

Even if the Flames wind up losing this one, it's still been a great season, and with the lack of playoff experience on the roster coming in, it will be good for a lot of these young guys to know what it feels like. Most of the team that got swept by Anaheim last go around isn't here anymore, and maybe a disappointing exit is exactly what they need to really push them to step it up next season. That said, I'd love to see them make a series out of this, and love even more if the Flames can pull out the series win here. The skill is there, but the compete level has not been good enough.

Minor gripe time: TJ Brodie got called for a slash on Landeskog in the third period. Letter of the law? It was absolutely a penalty. Problem? They'd been letting it go all game, and if you measured that slash up to what Gaudreau's had to deal with in the first four games, it's not even top five in terms of severity. I know it's a human issue, but the officiating in the NHL this season has seemed less consistent than it has since the last major change to the rulebook. I'm not saying that a penalty in the regular season should be the same in the playoffs. The intensity ramps up, and you should absolutely let the players dictate the outcome of the game as much as possible. But they really need to find a way to be more consistent. Don't call something in the third period, that you weren't calling in the first two.

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He built the juggernaut that is Tampa Bay (recent results notwithstanding) so it's pretty exciting for sure. Not to mention he's the 2nd greatest player in franchise history, that helps too.

Considering how average-to-bad the entire Detroit sports scene has been this decade I think it's a nice shot in the arm for a lot of sports fans up there.

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2 hours ago, damsher hatfield said:

He built the juggernaut that is Tampa Bay (recent results notwithstanding) so it's pretty exciting for sure. Not to mention he's the 2nd greatest player in franchise history, that helps too.

Considering how average-to-bad the entire Detroit sports scene has been this decade I think it's a nice shot in the arm for a lot of sports fans up there.

Yeah, he’s arguably the most beloved sports figure in Detroit sports history. You could argue others but I think it’s probably Yzerman. Hopefully he’s more Joe Dumars 2004 then Alan Trammel or Joe Dumars 2008. 

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Leafs got away with one. Absolutely interference on their go ahead goal, that the goal stood was brutal.

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Colorado played a really good series, minus game one, and deserve to move on. They've carried their momentum over from the regular season very well. They were a team playing with desperation to make the post-season, and they were a team playing with desperation to move forward. Great last four games from them.

I've still got Leafs games to watch here moving forward, which is great, but it's definitely frustrating. The Flames have no one to blame but themselves, because we all know how playoff hockey is played and they weren't prepared. I'm still aggravated as all hell with the inconsistent calls though. Gaudreau took a pretty heavy slash early in the game, away from the play while he was heading off for a line change. It hurt just to watch it. No call. Third period, Flames are out of it for sure, but Hathaway gets called for a slash to put us down two men, they show the replay, and it's a love tap compared to what's been allowed all night.

Officials need to be held more accountable for consistency. It's an issue that needs to be addressed by the league.

Again though, nobody to blame but themselves. They didn't handle the pressure well, got frustrated when blatant calls were neglected and they just imploded. They're a young team though, and these guys are going to learn a lot from this experience. I mostly just feel bad for Mike Smith, who played the best hockey he's played in years. Now he's headed into free agency, and it wouldn't be smart to re-sign Smith without some type of out clause or crazy good pricetag... and at his age, with the issues he's battled the last two years, I can't see him signing anywhere that will play him even just 41 games, that won't be a total disaster of a team. He deserves better, but the business of hockey dictates that he's close to done, and he probably won't ever get another chance to get the Cup.

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Now that the Flames' season is over, let's take a look at who is staying and who is going for next season.

As of right now, the team is projected to have about $10.1 million in cap space under the current Salary Cap. With it going up to about $83 million next season, that could open up an extra $4 million. Let's meet in the middle and say they have $12.1 million to play with.

UFA Forwards: Garnet Hathaway

-Hathaway is definitely due for an increase in pay. Our fourth line this season was the most consistent. He tallied 11 goals, 19 points and a +14 rating. Players like that are in demand through free agency, but unless someone overpays considerably, I would imagine he is returning to the Flames for the 19/20 season. I would estimate a deal at around $1.7 million per season, so that leaves us with $10.4

UFA Defensemen: Dalton Prout, Oscar Fantenberg

-With 7 NHL defensemen and Oliver Kylington potentially ready to make the jump full time, I don't see Dalton Prout returning to the team. An under the radar acquisition at the trade deadline, Fantenberg acclimated himself quite nicely to the Flames system, pairing up with Rasmus Andersson mostly to provide a very steady third pairing. Even though re-signing Fantenberg would make him the 8th NHL ready defenseman on the roster, his big body, quick thinking and vision should be enough to push someone out. We'll get to that in a bit. I would re-sign Fantenberg. He made $650,000 this year. Despite his rock solid play, Fantenberg's not done anything to warrant any crazy dollars, so let's bump him up a bit past what Prout was making and say it's a one year deal at $900,000. Now we're down to $9.5 million.

UFA Goalies: Mike Smith

-Smith made $4.25 million this season. For the entire body of work, it's a steep price, but he played his best when it mattered most, and his early struggles gave David Rittich a chance to establish himself as a future number one. Smitty has made no secret of his displeasure with how Bill Peters handled him this season. I believe that is the reason he doesn't return. Smith wants to play the bulk of the games, and it's just not going to happen in Calgary. If he were willing to take a mentors role and play between 25 and 41 games as needed, letting Rittich take the reigns, I'd be interested in bringing him back at a cap hit of around $2.5, but he's not going to go for that. Smith doesn't return. We still have $9.5 million.

RFA Forwards: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk, Andrew Mangiapane, Alan Quine

-Benny and Tkachuk are two of the hardest working guys on the roster. Bennett was a beast against Colorado, throwing his body at anything that moved, and Chucky is a future captain who does it all. Both of those guys get re-signed, no doubt. Mangiapane was a standout for the team against the Avalanche, and Quine fit in very nicely when he did get a chance to play. I keep both of those guys also.

Tkachuk is set to become the highest paid Flames player this season, but Treliving has been very good about making that happen for guys without causing too big of a pay gap. Gaudreau and Giordano make $6.75 million to set the bar right now. Tkachuk will come in higher than that, but I'm not sure he's going to get $10 million. So let's say $8.8 for Chucky on a bridge deal. We now have $700,000 in space.

Bennett made $1.95 this year. While he hasn't worked out to be the offensive force that he looked like he could be when drafted, Bennett has become a very integral part of the Calgary roster, and is probably our most aggressive player when it comes to taking the body. I'm projecting him at about $3.5 million a year. We now are over the cap by $2.8 million.

Mangiapane and Quine will probably come in at a combined $1.5 million. We are now over the cap by $4.3 million.

RFA Goalies: David Rittich

-The Chronicles of Rittich look like they will be continuing in Cow Town. He made $800,000 this year, almost completely stole the starting job from Mike Smith, but faltered down the stretch as the team began to have some issues. Ideally, I'd be looking at a one year "Prove Yourself" deal worth $2 million, but there will be interest in his services if he's dicked around by the Flames. Rittich will want term, and with the way he is in the locker room with his teammates, and what he showed he is capable of this season, I'm willing to gamble on him. Rittich pulls $4 million a year on a deal between three and six years. We are now over the cap by $8.3 million.

Getting Under the Cap

-The team still needs another goalie. So not only do we need to get under the cap, but we need to get under enough to sign another netminder.

After the season he had, it would be amazing if we could get out from under James Neal's $5.75 million contract, but the only interest in him after this year is going to be from teams looking to buy low. They'll want us to eat salary or take back an equally bad contract, and that's not something we're interested in. Maybe Neal bounces back, or maybe injuries after the start of the season force someone to make a more intriguing offer, but for the time being, he's a Calgary Flame.

Michael Frolik's $4.3 million can be shipped off. He's still a very capable player, but consistency and attitude were an issue this season, and if someone wants him, it just opens up room on the depth chart for Derek Ryan or Garnet Hathaway to get an extended opportunity at the third line, and for guys like Dillon Dube or Austin Czarnik to find a full time roster spot. Moving Frolik gets us to just $4 million over the cap.

TJ Brodie returned to form this season, making this summer a perfect time to move the defenseman. I love Brodie for what he brings to the game, but he's guilty of making dangerous plays too often when the safer play is right there. He's also struggled when not paired with Giordano, which makes him expendable. Especially since Rasmus Andersson's time on the top pairing with Gio worked out so well. Brodie makes $4.65 million. We are now $600,000 under the cap.

Michael Stone's $3.5 million contract is a fairly good price-point for what he brings to the game, but his absence from the lineup this season and the arrivals of Juuso Valimaki and Oscar Fantenberg, the quick rise of Andersson from 3rd pair to Giordano's partner, and the need to clear some room has made him expendable. With free agency typically encouraging over-spending, there should be lots of interest in Stone from teams looking to upgrade without spending a lot of money. We are now $4.1 million under the cap.

Moving these guys out will likely mean bringing other players back, but Treliving will be doing his best to off-set costs by packaging some of the desirable returning players with those we are okay with moving. So unfortunately, some of our choices to stay will probably end up being dealt to facilitate the shaping of next season's roster. For the purposes of this though, I'm not going to worry about that.

What We Need:

-A goalie. With $4.1 million to spend and only one position of need, let's look at the market and see who's available. To get someone under the $4.1 million we have available, it's not looking like a legitimate number one guy is on the radar. That's okay though. David Rittich is our number one goalie going forward. We're just looking for someone who can play between 25 and 41 games if needed.

If Anaheim moves on from Ryan Miller, I'm making a call to his agent. He only made $2 million this season, posting a save percentage of .912 with the lowly Ducks. He's older than Mike Smith, but he's a good mentor and played better hockey more consistently this season. Smitty had an .898 save percentage, for comparison, with a better team. Rittich's posted save percentage was .911

Miller is a good fit if Calgary is a destination he likes.

Rittich's fellow countryman Petr Mrazek is having a good season for the Hurricanes, making $1.5 million. If he becomes available, and we're not as worried about having a more experienced guy, a 1A/1B of Rittich/Mrazek could see both guys push each other to try and take the number one job.

Either of those plans works for me. Whether it's bringing in a mentor to work behind Rittich, or bringing in a challenger to create an ongoing battle for the net. However, Rittich just went through a year where Smith was given the nod despite Rittich's better play at times, and a post-season in which he sat on the bench and watched his team fall apart. He's going to need that vote of confidence that this is his team moving forward. It also helps make the decision easier that Petr Mrazek is going to be looking for bigger dollars and longer term than Miller.

If Ryan Miller is open to it, Calgary signs him to a one year deal at $4 million, matching Rittich's dollars in case he ends up playing the bulk of the games for some reason, but sticking to a one year term so that Rittich knows that the number one job is his to lose.

What the Team Looks Like Now:

-Forward lines of: Johnny Gaudreau / Sean Monahan \ Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk / Mikael Backlund \ Sam Bennett, James Neal / Mark Jankowski \ Andrew Mangiapane, Austin Czarnik / Derek Ryan \ Garnet Hathaway

-Defense pairings of: Mark Giordano & Rasmus Andersson, Travis Hamonic & Noah Hanifin, Juuso Valimaki & Oscar Fantenberg

-Goaltending duo of: David Rittich & Ryan Miller

Why Aren't We Spending in Free Agency?

-There isn't a need beyond acquiring a goalie. This is a team that led the Western Conference in points in the regular season, and we haven't subtracted anything from it that would suggest that they can't churn out a comparable year next season.

The post-season ended on a very down note, but it's easy to over-react. This Flames team was filled with players who hadn't experienced the NHL post-season yet, and the embarrassment of being ousted in five games by a wildcard team should help them be prepared for next year.

My only areas of concern are whether or not James Neal can rebound, or if he's destined for the press box with that big money, and whether or not we'll see any regression from Giordano. Signs point to no on Giordano, as he's consistently gotten better over his career and is a workout machine, doing everything he can to keep his body in top shape. As for Neal, I doubt that we'll see a similarly bad season next year, but maybe the wheels fell off the vehicle and he's done. Maybe he can't get going again in the same environment where he struggled so badly. James Neal is the big question mark for next season, but Bill Peters has shown that he won't handle him with kid gloves. If there's someone else who is going to give us a better chance to win, Peters has already proven he doesn't mind sending almost $6 million to the press box.

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You can have Semyon Varlamov, who is almost certainly leaving in FA.

 

Also, pretend I wrote a smug paragraph beginning with "Is it really so interesting that I thought Calgary would be our best matchup?" here, and that can be the extent of my R1 victory lap.

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