2021 MLB Season / 21-22 Offseason Thread

[Draevyn]

13 minutes ago, Meacon Keaton said:

Is it inning count or is it more times through the order? Because there is a pretty strong amount of data on how much worse your average pitcher does his third time through the order.

I assume that would be a timing issue? Batters would tend to catch on to a pitcher by the third time they see them? I heard that mentioned during the first game between Yankees/Jays on the weekend. It was mentioned how the Jay's pitcher needed to change his cadence.

[Meacon Keaton]

2 minutes ago, Forky said:

I assume that would be a timing issue? Batters would tend to catch on to a pitcher by the third time they see them? I heard that mentioned during the first game between Yankees/Jays on the weekend. It was mentioned how the Jay's pitcher needed to change his cadence.

Yeah, by the third time you can get a pitchers timing down and you have the two previous at bats to analyze how he approached your at bats. You’re able to pick up maybe an arm angle or the way he holds his glove or just what pitch he or where he likes to put the ball on certain counts. There’s just so much more information to consume and help you prepare.

[The Buscher]

My question was specific to player health for this year.  I think even the top flight pitchers might struggle to hit 200 innings this year because of how careful teams reportedly want to be after last year messed up everyone's schedules.  My point was more that innings counts feel arbitrary vs. number of pitches thrown but clearly front offices are seeing other data.  When deGrom was pulled yesterday he'd thrown just 77 pitches over six innings, had retired the last nine batters he faced and the last pitch he threw was a 100 MPH heater to the best hitter on the squad.  Opening Day or not, there was a time you never dream of pulling someone in that spot.

But I do understand the hook for the younger, inexperienced pitchers.  Generally the front line rotation pitchers are the ones know how to vary their approaches each time through the order to keep hitters guessing.  But even the great pitchers who come up from the minor leagues need some time in the big leagues to learn that lesson the hard way.  All through their high school, collegiate, minor league career they've been able to blow opposing hitters away purely on their stuff, the big leagues is the first time they're met with competition who begin to pick up on their tendencies.  For some of those guys, the bigs is where they learn how to actually pitch.

[Gabriel]

Innings count does have some effect. The start/stop can wear down your arm. You go from throwing heat to sitting down, and back and forth. Eventually, there's a point where you can notice the effects of that on your performance.

Everybody is different, but I used to hate going back out to pitch after a long half inning just sitting in the dugout. Your muscles aren't as loose, and you lose the momentum you'd been riding because of an extended break between pitches. The last year that I played, I would actually throw side sessions in-between innings if I wasn't scheduled to bat. Just to keep my arm warm and ready to go.

[gunnar hendershow]

There's certainly a mix of multiple factors, but the biggest thing dictating decisions now is the 3rd time through the order data. It's relatively solid that, all things being equal, you have a higher probability of winning if you don't let your starter see the batters for 3 times in a game. Obviously with regards to aces this might not be completely true, but it's how teams frame their decisions.

Health will have some to do with how pitchers are managed but it's the 3rd time through the order that is chiefly affecting decisions.

[The Buscher]

Game 6 of the World Series was fascinating because even some of the most vocal stat supporters out there were like "wait, they're pulling Snell, really?"  Like everybody knows the third time through the order penalty but there is still a human element to the game and that's one of the rare cases where it seems like everybody was turned off by the computers making that decision.  Well, except Dodgers fans.

I'm certainly not old man yells at cloud but there are some aspects of current strategy where I think "are we sure this is more fun to watch?"

[Meacon Keaton]

There’s definitely a human element to it, which is exactly why the stat heads were so vocal about the Snell decision. There’s a gulf of differences between taking your ace out in Game Six of the World Series and taking your ace out in the first game of the season. 

And managers don’t care about what’s fun to watch. They care about having their best players healthy.

[gunnar hendershow]

One of the biggest points that constantly gets brought up about data-driven decisions and teams built on analytics is that they're really basing everything on the 162-game season. Pulling your starter might backfire 10-15% of the time but you look at all those situations in a regular season and it still winds up winning you, say, 10 more games than it would otherwise.

In the postseason there's a lot less room for error and there's a human element of nerves, etc. you don't see during June games. That was probably the biggest reason I had for keeping in Snell, he was clearly locked in and there's no guarantee your reliever of choice is coming in as locked in. 

Earl Weaver's Orioles were a very early adopter of using statistics to inform decision making, and they absolutely ran roughshod over the AL for a number of years. But when they were ahead of the curve with stats they still only won 1 World Series because postseason baseball doesn't have the same cushion that the regular season provides.

[Draevyn]

1 hour ago, Gabriel said:

Innings count does have some effect. The start/stop can wear down your arm. You go from throwing heat to sitting down, and back and forth. Eventually, there's a point where you can notice the effects of that on your performance.

Everybody is different, but I used to hate going back out to pitch after a long half inning just sitting in the dugout. Your muscles aren't as loose, and you lose the momentum you'd been riding because of an extended break between pitches. The last year that I played, I would actually throw side sessions in-between innings if I wasn't scheduled to bat. Just to keep my arm warm and ready to go.

It's like wrestling matches with commercials between them  

[The Buscher]

13 minutes ago, damshow said:

One of the biggest points that constantly gets brought up about data-driven decisions and teams built on analytics is that they're really basing everything on the 162-game season. Pulling your starter might backfire 10-15% of the time but you look at all those situations in a regular season and it still winds up winning you, say, 10 more games than it would otherwise.

In the postseason there's a lot less room for error and there's a human element of nerves, etc. you don't see during June games. That was probably the biggest reason I had for keeping in Snell, he was clearly locked in and there's no guarantee your reliever of choice is coming in as locked in. 

Earl Weaver's Orioles were a very early adopter of using statistics to inform decision making, and they absolutely ran roughshod over the AL for a number of years. But when they were ahead of the curve with stats they still only won 1 World Series because postseason baseball doesn't have the same cushion that the regular season provides.

Ditto for the Davey Johnson-led 80s Mets, he's one of the first known managers to run lineups through a computer.  Of course, the lineups that resulted looked a lot like what you'd expect for the era anyway as there wasn't quite the same level of detailed stats available at the time.

Aside from wins and losses, I can't pretend that modern baseball is the best product I've seen.  I mean there are a lot of games that consist of almost nothing but strikeouts, walks, and home runs.  It can be downright tedious to watch at times, tbh.  But that's all the more reason to savor any chance I get to watch a star player perform, the guys who are 5-tool players and can excel at everything even when a lot of the hitters around them have become one dimensional.

[Maxx]

Despite my obvious issues with the Rangers crowd capacity limits, I am still almost certainly going to buy a $6 ticket and go see them play some other shitty team on a Tuesday night at some point .

[Meacon Keaton]

2 minutes ago, Maxx said:

Despite my obvious issues with the Rangers crowd capacity limits, I am still almost certainly going to buy a $6 ticket and go see them play some other shitty team on a Tuesday night at some point .

Great news! They play Boston on the 29th. It is a Thursday though. 😕

[Maxx]

Should be a cheap ticket, sadly it isn’t.

[The Buscher]

My dad’s getting his second Pfizer shot tomorrow and I’ll get my second Moderna shot on May 1st, so maybe by June we’ll try to get to a game at Citi Field.  I miss live baseball for sure.

[gunnar hendershow]

Depending on how capacity limits are I'll probably try to hit up a game during the summer. I'm not particularly uncomfortable being outside, it's more being outside in a packed stadium that would make me anxious. So hopefully they keep it around 25%.

[MalaCloudy Black]

Is the MILB having a season this year?

[Meacon Keaton]

Yes, supposed to start in May.

[The Buscher]

Rougned Odor to the Yankees

He's been terrible for 4 years but even then he's got 88 home runs in that span, so he adds lefty pop in a lefty-friendly stadium.  Rangers are eating all the cost so no harm in this move.

[Meacon Keaton]

I’m curious as to who gets let go. It has to be Jay Bruce or Mike Tauchman. I hope it’s Bruce. But we can’t send anyone else down or release another position player while carrying six outfielders (Bruce is technically OF playing 1st).

Then Odor slots in at second and DJ moves to first while Tauchman continues practicing there, as back up.

[Meacon Keaton]

4 hours ago, Meacon Keaton said:

I’m curious as to who gets let go. It has to be Jay Bruce or Mike Tauchman. I hope it’s Bruce.

And then he hits a home run. I call that the Meacon Juju.