Ananas

4th place is still a stretch. With the culture shock of a management change now over, I'd expect them to regress to the mean unless guys like Jones and Markakis have rebound seasons. Not sure how much of an impact Vladdy is going to have given his numbers were significantly inflated by playing in Arlington. And Brian Matusz may very well be the David Price of 2011, but how's that going to make up the 19 game difference between the Jays and Orioles? With the Wells deal the Jays are a marginally worse team although just marginally. The platoon of Napoli, Lind and Encarnacion should produce more at 1B/DH than the absolute gong show of Lyle Overbay and Lind the previous year (more Lind's problem than Overbay's). Aaron Hill cannot possibly be worse than he was in 2010, the same could be suggested about a guy like Yunel Escobar. And as for breakout potential you'd say Matt Wieters and I'd say Travis Snider. Couple that with the depth the Jays already have in the rotation and the additions they made to the bullpen and I peg them as a slightly better than .500 team in 2011. The Orioles are better than they were last year, but I highly doubt they're as good as they were after Buck took over.

That 2-for-1 package they got is excellent value for the Rays. Damon plays as an inexpensive back-up plan in case Desmond Jennings isn't ready and the Manny signing has the potential to be the best club contract signed this off-season. This is a guy who has basically put up a .390 and up OBP like clockwork with good power. He can't field, but his bat has the potential to be worth 4 times what they signed him for. And if he flops, so what? It's 2MM.

The deal is official. Multiple sources including Keith Law confirming that there is NO money going LAA's way. I'm simply speechless. Alex Anthopoulos is a silent assassin.

And now Shi Davidi of the Canadian Press reporting that the Jays may not be sending any money in the deal. There are no words.

From Rosenthal:

" Sources: Wells and cash to #Angels, Napoli and Rivera to #BlueJays. #MLB"

So now the question is how much cash? Just from a value standpoint alone, it would have to be well into the 8 digit range for this to make sense.

If baseball writers didn't have moral superiority they'd have nothing to write about.

Given what the Brewers gave up, I'd say it makes perfect sense. Escobar is a serious prospect albeit one that's not likely to be an elite bat. He's got a great glove and fits the Royals needs for up the middle depth. Jake Odorizzi probably has the highest upside but he's 20 years old and is in A-ball. Lorenzo Cain is probably long term a 4th outfielder. Jeffress is a guy who has two drug test failures under his belt already and most likely a reliever long term. In return they have a top three of Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum that will be able to contend with any team in their division, and with the bats they have they very well could reach the post season in 2011. On the Royals end, I feel like they made the decision to try and fill organizational need rather than get the best possible package. They needed up the middle help and even in the short term Escobar is an upgrade over Betancourt, but I can't help but feel that there was a loss of value here. To me, given that the Royals are still a year or two away from serious contention, it would have been wise for them to take the strongest package possible and then try to find a fit with your package to address the organizational need a little more aggressively.

I'm going to go out and say that neither the Phillies or the Red Sox make the World Series! Who is with me?!

Odds are on your side.

I agree with damshow about the offseason. The Sox added offensive depth because they can reasonably expect their pitching to be better in 2011 given that Lackey and Beckett absolutely CANNOT get worse than they were this year. The Phillies have an aging core and they let one of their best bats walk in free agency. Every single one of their core players are either entering or approaching their decline phase, and several of the guys have injury histories. The offense wasn't particularly elite in 2010, and although some guys can probably be expected to have rebound seasons subtracting Werth and adding Brown isn't likely to make them better in the short term. This is more overcompensating for a deficiency than anything. I'd expect the Phils to win about as many games as they did last year, but the Sox probably went from 89-96 wins in the span of a couple weeks.

While we're talking Sherman tweets, he also raised another interesting question: what if CC opts out in 2011? I mean his current contract would take him up to the age of 35. Lee had offers that would have taken him to age 39. If CC has another Cy calibre season it'd make sense for him to opt out and look for slightly better terms and longer length. He'd probably end up going back to the Yanks like A-Rod did, but it'd be another guaranteed contract to a declining player. And it could be a distraction to the Yanks not unlike the one that Jeter was this year. Could cost them in their efforts to bring a Carpenter or a Buerhle in.

Anyone in a 5 or 7 game series does. That's just baseball. But over 162 games? The offence would have to REALLY suck.

This is a disaster for the Yankees. The Red Sox get much better, and then the Yankees don't get Lee. I don't consider Greinke a worthwhile Plan B. What I hate about this is now we're probably going to have to part ways with Jesus Montero to get a big arm which means I'm going to have to watch more of boring old Jorge.

You know how Jorge is a terrible catcher? Well, he's light years ahead of Montero. Montero might have to be moved just because of the eventual glutton of 1B/DH types with Tex under a long term deal and A-Rod's declining mobility likely necessitating a move to DH eventually (okay not so much glutton as two gigantic long term unmovable contracts that necessitate playing time). Trouble is, what impact starter is available? They're not sure Greinke is viable in NYC. King Felix just signed a long term extension so I can't imagine the M's would move him. Angels have no reason to move Dan Haren. Doubt the Tigers would shop Verlander given all the money they just spent. And obviously the glut of starters in the Sox, Giants and Phils rotations are off the table. Josh Johnson just got extended. Maybe take a flyer on guys like Brandon Webb to see if he still has anything? Pavano's obviously not a realistic target.

As for catcher, they probably sign Russell Martin and let him split duties with Cervelli while sticking Posada at DH. Doubt the Yanks will let themselves be outbid again for a player, especially by the Red Sox with those two being Martin's primary suitors.

Anyway I never followed up on Meac's post Friday, which was full of good points. I must also say that I'm not an irrational Yankee hater who can't see that they are most often a well run organization who builds in what really is the best way for them to build. They're the most iconic sports brand in the world, and to maintain that they have to maintain their status as the preeminent sports franchise in baseball. And understanding all those things, I must still conclude this post with a

THANK YOU CLIFF

People have been saying that the Yankees are too old for about a decade now. There will always be a Royal, or Athletic, or Pirate, or Marlin, or Oriole who becomes a free agent. We'll be alright.

I hope you realize you basically just made the case for not only why the Yankees are hated, but why they SHOULD be hated.

Rumor going around Philly is that the Phils are trying to get Greinke.

False rumour that was started by a fake Jon Heyman twitter account.

I dunno about the Orioles, but the Jays could and would find success in the NL East. Were it not for the absolute futility of trying to spend against the Yankees and BoSox, the Jays have a regional population that could quite easily support a payroll between 125-140 million. But keep being cocky. In a few years when the Jays, Red Sox and Rays all have rich minor league systems that consistently fuel their big league rosters with elite level players while the Yanks are struggling to finish 3rd because ARod's become a barely above league average player, Jeter is a corpse at short, Tex, CC and AJ are well into their decline phases and you traded away a future 50 HR hitter in Jesus Montero for some stopgap that'll break down in his mid-30s the turnaround will be orgasmic schadenfreude.

Remember when the Red Sox were the lesser of two evils? Yeah me too, but the memory's getting more and more vague.

Man, who'd have ever thought it would turn out that Gord Ash was an astute drafter?

Even a broken fat guy's right twice a day.

Nationals are supposedly in the Cliff Lee mix. Ken Rosenthal just sent out a tweet saying he thinks someone will go 7 years for Lee and that it won't be the Yankees. Nationals about to go big again?

Better yet, why didn't they just go big on Lee and save their money on Werth? Lee's the kind of arm that could actually not be a total disaster at the end of a 7 year deal and he's proven himself to be much more of a premium player than Werth.

So Shaun Marcum was traded to the Brewers for second base prospect Bret Lawrie. Rumours are that it's a prelude to a Greinke deal.

I don't get this logic, although I've heard it so many times. So you trade Marcum, a 3.5 win player, to the Brewers, then trade the return for Marcum along with Drabek and some other high ceiling prospects (Hechavarria/Gose/Stewart) for Greinke, a 5.1 win player. Lawrie is harder to project so if you consider taking Marcum out of the lineup as well as Drabek who could very well have been a 2.5 win player in 2010 (and substantially better over the 6 years you have him for), then you add one or two other players who if they hit their ceiling could be star level players, is Greinke worth the 2 year boost? Don't see it at all. A team knocking on the door of contention might make this move. A team that is missing 3 corner position players and just had its bullpen substantially depleted doesn't make this move, not if their heads are screwed on right.

With Adam Dunn leaving, the Nationals had to sign someone to try to replace those numbers. Plus, look at that team. They had to overpay to get someone to sign there.

If they had to cripple their team's payroll situation to get an A free agent to come to Washington, they should just stick to the draft. But there's no reason whatsoever to think they had to overspend that much. Werth is 31 years old. That gives them 1, maybe 2 years before the decline phase starts. Then you count in his VICIOUS home/away splits (OPS 161 points lower away from Citizens Bank) and the fact that he's actually going to a bit of a pitcher's park and this could get real ugly, real fast. And he's a right fielder! Did they not just draft Bryce Harper as a RF less than 6 months ago? Let's see where they are in 2013 when this contract makes it harder for the Nats to retain Ryan Zimmerman, a much more valuable player.

If they don't get Carl Crawford now the only way they get into the playoffs next year is if the Rays fall off dramatically. Which, of course, is totally possible and perhaps to be expected if they move Garza too after losing Crawford, Pena and Soriano.

The Cards have signed Lance Berkman to a 1 year deal worth $8 million. He'll play LF, with Matt Holliday moving to RF. With Holliday's arm in RF and Berkman in LF, that's gonna be a big time downgrade defensively from last opening day when they had Ryan Ludwick's glove in right. Given the defensive hit, I'm not sure that a marginal offensive upgrade over a Jay/Craig platoon is worth the defensive hit. Especially given how much of an off-year Berkman had at the plate in 2010.

You mean for next year? Why? Kelly wouldn't have been on the Sox OD roster. They've got Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Dice-K, Bowdon, Wakefield... I'm thinking it's more likely they go full steam ahead on Jayson Werth.

New York Post reporting that the Derek Jeter and the Yankees have agreed to a 3 year deal worth between 15 and 17 million per season. There is an option on a 4th year, although there's no explanation yet on what shape it takes.

Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo screams overspending to me. We're talking about a 1st baseman who would have been a free agent after 2011 (and he would have, it's not like the Padres could have afforded him and I can't think of another natural fit for him on a team that could have put together a prospect package like this while affording to re-sign him). We know Theo hordes his draft picks, but I hope that's not a motivating factor. Anthony Rizzo may end up having more power than Gonzalez, and Casey Kelly is a bonafide stud. This is a great deal for the Padres; especially to maybe get a guy like Casey Kelly into your rotation at a pitcher friendly park like PETCO by 2012. A-Gon is gonna fucking tear it up once he gets away from PETCO on a regular basis, but I can't help but feel that this is a little bit of smartest man in the room syndrome rearing its ugly head in Boston.

EDIT: The other thing I think is worth pointing out is that this move is designed to make you more competitive in the short term, but I'm not sure that it'll quite work that way. The end result of this is that you push Kevin Youkilis to third and let Beltre walk. Letting Beltre walk is probably advisable given the kind of market he has, but if you take out the Beltre of 2010 it's going to be next to impossible for the Gonzalez of 2011 to even be equivalent to Beltre, much less better. Offensively A-Gon is capable of putting up those numbers, but defensively? Not a chance. Then when you consider the transition of Youkilis to third it's a downgrade in his performance at a position he's been statistically worse at. I get that they weren't bringing Beltre back so it's at least a move to try to salvage the situation, but it's a lot to give up to still find yourself a ways away from closing that 6 game gap between them and the post-season in 2010.

Like those 2 are anywhere close to being the same thing.

They're both useless. To gauge defensive ability from fielding percentage is to assume equal ability to get to balls hit to their zone of play (or out of their zone for plus fielders). To gauge offensive ability from RBI's is to assume equal opportunity to drive in runners. Both are misleading and often used to perpetuate myths (listen to anyone try to justify Jeter's GG this year and they'll always bring up fielding percentage/look at this year's Carter-Batista Award at Fangraphs of how much RBIs can overstate a hitter's value).

Absolutely there is, but it's not "clutch". Jeter's gotten on base more and hit for less power in regular season high leverage situations (.317/.397/.431) over his career than his career norms (.314/.385/.452), and in the post season got on base less and hit for more power (.309/.377/.472). It all comes out in the wash, really. What's playing into his "intangible" value is sentimental attachment and his nearness to the 3,000 hit plateau, not on field value of any kind. There aren't baseball reasons to offer him 45 over 3, much less the insane figure he started out asking for.

EDIT: Also you're totally right about the RBI point, I was going to point that out myself if you hadn't hit the nail on the head already. A-Rod benefitted from people like Jeter hitting in front of him while Jeter suffered from having to deal with such luminaries as Bubba Crosby, Tony Clark, Enrique Wilson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Molina and Francisco Cervelli at the bottom of the lineup over the years.

The Yankees overpaid Jeter on his last deal. They'll cave in and end up overpaying again this time around. Jeter is an egotistical moron. Does he not realize that he'll lose most of his endorsements if he's not in a Yankee uniform? Does he not realize that the Yankees will keep him on the payroll for life? Jeter has never been able to accept that A-Rod was, is and continues to be the better player.

Except for the part where until VERY recently Jeter was "Mr Clutch" and A-Rod sucked more dick than Christy Canyon in the playoffs.

Derek Jeter's career post-season line - .309/.377/.472

Alex Rodriguez's career post-season line - .290/.396/.528

But if you wanna say very recently then fine, let's take the last two playoffs out:

Derek Jeter - .309/.377/.469

Alex Rodriguez - .279/.373/.483

So they're closer but still more production out of A-Rod (.843 OPS for Jeter to .856 for A-Rod).

And if you compare the regular season lines (I know you weren't talking regular season but it speaks to sahyder's point) over the period during which both have been Yankees:

Jeter - .310/.379/.442

A-Rod - .296/.393/.559

Alex Rodriguez always has been and always will be the better player. He was actually a much better shortstop too, only the Captain was anchored to the position when the Yanks traded for him. For Jeter to want to get dollars and years equal to the contract a better player signed when he was 4 years younger than Jeter is now is absurd.