2008 MLB Season

[Ananas]

We do need a starter though. As of right now, we're starting the year with Halladay, Litsch, and nobody else.

Yeah, ya'll need some help

Jesse Litsch's career stats:

20-18, 3.67 ERA, 149 K, 75 BB, 1.286 WHIP

Very solid #2 numbers and comparable to several aces (i.e. Jeremy Guthrie). We do need help, but Litsch is not even the slightest bit an indication of that. He's got excellent control and a great command over his breaking pitches, which he can throw for strikes in tough situations. And he's 23, so he has the potential to continue to improve.

[HailtotheYo]

meh, you can spin the stats and all but those K's are in 287 innings just saying. I'm not downing the guy, but as you said he's only 23. I don't buy stock in just accepting a young kid like that as my "solid #2" and moving on.

It'd be different in say a Tampa Bay case where you're going with all of your young kids, and saying fuck it and letting them play now and getting their lumps out of the way. Litsch being young and considered "solid" as the #2 guy is putting quite a bit of stock in him when he's still at a point in his development where he can still fall off the wagon just as easily as continue to progress. Going with the young guys is much different than banking on one of them as a piece of the puzzle you don't have to worry about.

To me, I'd still rather go and get someone that is at least on an equivalent level so I'm not banking on him and then, oops ... there goes our number 2 guy, now what ?

That's just me though. Which is why I'm so pissed at the A's for this retarded ass trade for Holiday. Yeah, he's great, but who's to say he's not a "coors field" guy ? (vinny castilla anyone ?). I mean they gave up TWO of their best prospects and a great young bullpen guy for someone that may/may not be any good away from Coors, and may/may not even make it past july with the club. What the fuck ? They're banking on Barton and Buck to play to their potential next year (like Toronto banking on Litsch). Doesn't make sense to me. Either go young, or don't.

Oh, and since when was Jeremy Guthrie an Ace ? 10-12 is an ace ? I mean yeah, he's in Baltimore and all, but nobody there qualifies as an ace.

[gunnar hendershow]

I lol whenever I think of Guthrie as our "ace". It's almost as funny as when I remember the times Jay Gibbons was our "future".

[Ananas]

meh, you can spin the stats and all but those K's are in 287 innings just saying. I'm not downing the guy, but as you said he's only 23. I don't buy stock in just accepting a young kid like that as my "solid #2" and moving on.

Spin the stats? Did I avoid something? His numbers are great. And as for the lack of strikeouts, Cliff Lee won the fucking Cy Young award this year with a career high of 170, which is an average of just over 5 per outing. I used the strikeout stat as an indicator that Jesse Litsch strikes out two batters for every walk he surrenders. In fact, he had a stretch of something like 4 starts without a walk. This kid's got amazing control and at 23 is already able to locate late in the count.

It'd be different in say a Tampa Bay case where you're going with all of your young kids, and saying fuck it and letting them play now and getting their lumps out of the way. Litsch being young and considered "solid" as the #2 guy is putting quite a bit of stock in him when he's still at a point in his development where he can still fall off the wagon just as easily as continue to progress. Going with the young guys is much different than banking on one of them as a piece of the puzzle you don't have to worry about.

Did I ever say we should stick with him as a #2? I'm saying his stats are very solid for a #2 and if we do choose against getting into the free agent sweepstakes for a top two guy then we wouldn't be in terrible shape with him. And Tampa is a terrible example as it's an economic necessity as opposed to a choice. If Ted Rogers were to want to do so, he could match the Yankees in spending dollar for dollar. He'd just rather not lose a hundred million dollars per year.

To me, I'd still rather go and get someone that is at least on an equivalent level so I'm not banking on him and then, oops ... there goes our number 2 guy, now what ?

That's fine. What I was reacting to was you basically implying that we have Halladay and nothing else. Perhaps Litsch isn't ready for the #2 spot, although his two year performance would suggest he is and his numbers have been vastly superior to Burnett's over the same period. He's a very solid major league pitcher, and we're anything but in a position where we have to rebuild from Halladay up. If anything, Halladay and Litsch are the locks. It's McGowan and then whoever you get for 4 and 5 that are the big ifs.

Oh, and since when was Jeremy Guthrie an Ace ? 10-12 is an ace ? I mean yeah, he's in Baltimore and all, but nobody there qualifies as an ace.

He's Baltimore's ace until they develop/acquire someone better. And also, win/loss for a starter is a stat mindless baseball journos drag up when bereft of any useful insight. It's bullshit, and not in the slightest a reasonable indicator of skill. So some guy who can throw six innings, give up five runs and leave with the lead has put in a superior performance to say, Roy Halladay throwing nine and losing 1-0?

[HailtotheYo]

Wow, talk about over reacting. Holy shit.

If you were paying attention you'd notice that I was even poking at myself in the whole "spin" thing with his stats. But I do have to disagree that 2 games over .500 is not great. It's a hair above average. And are you talking about the same Burnett that I'm thinking of ? Because the one I'm thinking of was tied for 4th in wins, led the league in K's and K's per 9, was third in innings, and tied for first in games started. That sounds like reliable and much closer to a solid number 2. Again, that's just me. I mean, I guess that Litsch has been vastly superior to that over the last two years but I just can't seem to do that math. Oh, and Lee's 170 were 9th in the league. Yes, it's 5 per .. but Litsch was under 4 per last year. So I'm not sure where that's going.

As for Guthrie, you can say what you'd like about the guy but I'm just not buying him as an ace, that's all. Yes, he's talented but on a shitty team or not I still don't feel he's an ace. The O's went 14-16 in his starts. They gave him 4.28 runs per game in support, which an Ace should be able to cover more often than not I'd think. He only went the distance one and only got into the 8th innning one other time. He's barely 2/1 in K/BB and hasn't ever blanked anyone. None of that says Ace to me but hey, I'm sure it isn't useful insight anyway.

But seriously, you went way overboard up there. I really wasn't intending to dig into anything at all. I just don't see Litsch the same way you do (or Guthrie for that matter), nothing more.

[Toe]

Burnett was not as good in the year before this one, and he was as likely to go out and be lights out as he was to go out and struggle. Litsch was more consistent, although not nearly as good as Burnett when Burnett pitched at his peak. Burnett was just away from his peak a lot during his time in Toronto.

I read on ESPN that Brad Penny would be a smart choice for Toronto. Someone answer me this - who is Brad Penny?

[Lowerdeck]

He's like the #3 SP on the Dodgers, nothing spectacular.

More info: http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pennybr01.shtml

Edited November 18, 2008 by Lowerdeck

[gunnar hendershow]

Brad Penny would work to deepen a rotation... I guess. He'll cost more than he's worth though.

[Ananas]

HTTK, what the fuck are you talking about? I wasn't "overreacting" to anything, or going "overboard". All I did was take your argument and address it point by point. If you don't like having your opinions rebutted, don't give them.

[HailtotheYo]

HTTK, what the fuck are you talking about? I wasn't "overreacting" to anything, or going "overboard". All I did was take your argument and address it point by point. If you don't like having your opinions rebutted, don't give them.

Yeah I'll get right on doing what you tell me to. No, I won't. It's a discussion forum. I'll give my opinion all I want. But thanks though.

Now, on to baseball, the actual subject of the thread here.

Penny is a decent enough guy to round out a rotation but nothing spectacular. He'll undoubtedly be overpriced unless maybe you're team with no pitching like Baltimore .... or the Rangers.

I had a discussion with a friend earlier this morning about Pujols being the NatMVP. Curious as to what some of you think.

[GhostMachine]

HTTK, what the fuck are you talking about? I wasn't "overreacting" to anything, or going "overboard". All I did was take your argument and address it point by point. If you don't like having your opinions rebutted, don't give them.

Yeah I'll get right on doing what you tell me to. No, I won't. It's a discussion forum. I'll give my opinion all I want. But thanks though.

Now, on to baseball, the actual subject of the thread here.

Penny is a decent enough guy to round out a rotation but nothing spectacular. He'll undoubtedly be overpriced unless maybe you're team with no pitching like Baltimore .... or the Rangers.

I had a discussion with a friend earlier this morning about Pujols being the NatMVP. Curious as to what some of you think.

The problem with the MLB awards is that they only take the season into account, so some awards look ludicrous when players on teams that don't even make the postseason win awards over players on teams that do. Funnily enough I don't have a problem with that when it comes to the Cy Young award, but I do when it comes to the MVP award. Ryan Howard deserved the MVP over Pujols, even if you don't consider the post-season. And I don't even like the Phillies.

[HailtotheYo]

That's why there's an NLCS/ALCS/World Series MVP award as well. The MVP is designed for the regular season, so the post season SHOULDN'T count considering there's POST SEASON awards. So what if one team goes to the playoffs and one doesn't. That doesn't mean that an individual player is more valuable than another.

I especially have an issue with that in this case. Ryan Howards isn't even the MVP of his team in my opinion. Utley did much more for them than Howard did. I mean, Howard STUNK out loud for the majority of the season. He was hitting .236 as late as September 7th. That is not MVP worthy. Sure, the guy hits HR's but he also K's more than Rob Deer. Utley, Burrell, Moyer, Lidge, and Hamels were all more important (Utley/Hamels/Lidge for sure) to the Phillies than Howard was. Yeah, he had a nice run to end the season, but did dick all until that last bit. I mean, if you're 3/4/5th valuable to your team you sure aren't the most valuable player in the league.

I guess it depends on your take on value though. I could replace Howard with more people to fit his role than I could say Utley/Hamels/Lidge. Being that replacable doesn't exude value.

[CQI13]

Dustin Pedroia was announced as AL MVP.

Didn't watch too many Sox games this year, but I'm assuming he had a good enough year.

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Dustin Pedroia was announced as AL MVP.

Didn't watch too many Sox games this year, but I'm assuming he had a good enough year.

I'm a Sox fan, and I love Pedroia, but I don't think he deserves the award this year. It's close; but I would've gone with Joe Mauer.

Mauer's OPS+ was 137, compared to Pedroia's 122, and Mauer did that whilst a catcher. Also, Mauer was 2nd in the league in OBP; which a lot of people have argued is slightly under-weighted by OPS.

VORP actually gives the edge to Pedroia, narrowly: 60 to 57. But, looking at PMR (the only advanced defensive metric I have to hand), Pedroia places 19th out of all Major League 2B; Mauer is 13th out of the league's catchers. FRAA also likes Mauer a lot for what that's worth (not a lot). I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that Mauer's slightly superior defense at a slightly harder position bridges the gap. And, having endured Varitek as my starting C all season, and looked with some apprehension at the possibilities for replacing him, I really have started to appreciate the value of a good-hitting catcher. I wonder if the modifications to replacement level made by VORP and similar stats sufficiently apprehend the current dearth of offensive talent behind the plate.

WARP has the two as barely different (Pedroia at 9.8; Mauer at 9.6), but its fielding component is all buggered up, so I'm not sure how useful that is.

For you fans of context-specificity, Mauer led the AL in WPA at a stroll, beating Pedroia by 4.88 to 3.29 (Pedroia ranked 6th). As far as I'm aware, WPA does not make a positional adjustment.

Of course, almost all advanced rate stats (MLVr, VORPr) have Mauer killing Pedroia. Pedroia played eleven more games than Mauer; but 146 GP is still pretty damn good for a catcher. I'm not sure if I'd want to discount the difference in PT, as it seems like giving Mauer a double advantage, but it's something to think about.

EDIT: For clarity, PMR ranks Pedroia 8th out of the AL's 2B, Mauer 5th out of its catchers.

The problem with the MLB awards is that they only take the season into account, so some awards look ludicrous when players on teams that don't even make the postseason win awards over players on teams that do. Funnily enough I don't have a problem with that when it comes to the Cy Young award, but I do when it comes to the MVP award. Ryan Howard deserved the MVP over Pujols, even if you don't consider the post-season. And I don't even like the Phillies.

Ryan Howard ranked 29th (!!!!) in the NL in VORP. 47th (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) in OBP. Even in SLG, he was only 6th. 21st in WPA. Didn't crack the top 10 in OPS+, and BB-Ref's leaderboards don't go any further (I doubt he'd make the top 15 either). He did all this whilst playing below-average defense at the diamond's easiest position. Ryan Howard was the Philadelphia Phillies' 4th Most Valuable (Position) Player. If you want to make the 'the MVP must come from a successful team' argument; then I will disagree with you but concede that it has some validity. Bloodying Heck, though, at least choose a good player from a winning team.

Interesting factoid: Of the 11 full-time 1B in the NL with 500 PA or more in 2008, Howard had a better OBP than only two: Mike Jacobs and James Loney. And how many points did RH whip Loney's ass by? 1. 1 'points'.

For the record, anyone who doesn't think that Albert Pujols was the 2008 National League MVP is a gluebag. He led the league in VORP, SLG (by 62 points!), MLV, OPS and OPS+. He trailed Chipper Jones in OBP by a barely-significant 8 points. He was second in WPA to Lance Berkman. He is by far the best defensive 1B in the league. If you're into trad stats then (I pity you but) he was the only player to finish in the top 5 of all three Triple Crown categories. The man pisses value.

Penny is a decent enough guy to round out a rotation but nothing spectacular. He'll undoubtedly be overpriced unless maybe you're team with no pitching like Baltimore.

I don't necessarily think that Penny will be over-priced (well, most free agents are technically 'overpriced', but he won't be a Zito or even a Sabathia). His injury worries are likely to scare off GMs, and there's a crop of pitching talent above him (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett, Lowe, Peavy via trade). I think he could be a great option for a team looking to add some pitching to an already effective rotation. That's why I don't think the O's are the best destination for him, although I know where you're coming from. He intrigues me as a Sox fan: we already have Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester penciled in, but could be looking for at least one extra arm. We could throw some money at him, and not worry too much if he underperforms, because we have other options (Wakefield if he returns, Bowden, Buchholz if he's still here, there's talk about re-signing Byrd, Masterson could go back to the rotation in a pinch). I'm not sure that he's fallen far enough to take a big-money one-year deal. But a short-term commitment like maybe 2/16 - 2/20 would interest me.

Edited November 18, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Just as a little addendum to my previous post, I'd like to invite you all to play a little game. It's called the 'Name Baseball Playing Men Who Were More Betterer at Playing the Baseball Game in the 2008 National League of National Baseball Playing Competition than Mr. Ryan James Howard Was' game.

Anyone can join in the fun! (I've bolded first basemen and italicised Phillies. I have also included players who were traded into / out of the league in midseason -- just because they split time between two teams, it doesn't make Howard any better than them).

Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, David Wright, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Ludwick, Brian McCann, Nate McLouth, Manny Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Lee, Andre Ethier, Stephen Drew, Prince Fielder, Dan Uggla, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Delgado, Russell Martin, Troy Glaus, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Shane Victorino, Derrek Lee, Chris Iannetta, Mark Teixeira, Randy Winn.

More debatable inclusions:

Cristian Guzman: Depends how much you think mediocre defense at a premium position is worth over bad defense at a low-end position.

Ryan Braun: How bad does a slugger's defense have to be before he's not really that valuable?

Geovany Soto: Does horrible defense mitigate itself somewhat if you get it from a good-hitting catcher? Can a catcher redeem himself through vital, yet intangible, contributions to a team?

Alfonso Soriano: Defense?!

Conor Jackson: Is the gap between a mediocre defensive 1B and a bad one enough to bridge the gap in their relative offensive production? A lot of 'flattening' must occur at first: not many guys are really that great; not many will really kill you.

Jasyon Werth: I'm actually almost sure he's better.

So, there you go: Ryan Howard -- one of the most valuable 40 players in the NL this year! Probably! Excluding pitchers!

Sure, the guy hits HR's but he also K's more than Rob Deer.

I don't think there's anything wrong with striking out in and of itself. It's just another way to make an out, largely. If you look at the top 20 seasons for strikeouts in ML history, the names on that list are pretty mercurial: Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, Bobby Bonds, Mike Schmidt, Jim Thome, Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughan can play for me any day. Jose Hernandez, Preston Wilson and Mark Reynolds a little less so. The problem with him is plate discipline. A .339 OBP is unlikely to make you an above-average Major League 1B, no matter how hard you slug (within reason, obviously).

Utley, Burrell, Moyer, Lidge, and Hamels were all more important (Utley/Hamels/Lidge for sure) to the Phillies than Howard was.

Burrell and Howard had similar offensive seasons in the last analysis. Unfortunately, Burrell put up those numbers whilst playing the worst LF in the National League. Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth were both better than Howard, though.

Edited November 19, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[gunnar hendershow]

Pujols definitely deserved the NL MVP. I had this debate earlier, and I simply said that if you put Pujols on first for the Phils and Howard for the Cards, the Phillies win more games than they did with Howard and the Cards lose more than they did with Pujols. As a result, it is pretty obvious Pujols was more valuable to his team doing much of anything this year. "The best player on the best team" idea is pretty ludicrous. It's the player most valuable to his team having the season it did, and remember, the Cardinals were in playoff contention for awhile. And the Howard had a big slump and the Phillies were just fine during it. Hell, he slumped through most of the playoffs and they won the World Series. Chase Utley AND Cole Hamels AND Brad Lidge were all much more important to the Phillies this year than Howard was. The RBI is the most overrated stat in sports.

Pedroia, well, the AL MVP race never had a clear-cut winner. He and Youkilis could have both taken it from the Red Sox and I don't see a large cause for complaining. Josh Hamilton tailed off or he would have been a lock. If Ian Kinsler or Carlos Quentin hadn't gotten hurt, either of them could have made a strong case too. It was basically a case of Pedroia being the win to stay healthy and stay consistent throughout the season that proved the difference.

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Pedroia, well, the AL MVP race never had a clear-cut winner. He and Youkilis could have both taken it from the Red Sox and I don't see a large cause for complaining. Josh Hamilton tailed off or he would have been a lock. If Ian Kinsler or Carlos Quentin hadn't gotten hurt, either of them could have made a strong case too. It was basically a case of Pedroia being the win to stay healthy and stay consistent throughout the season that proved the difference.

There's this guy named Joe Mauer...

EDIT: Probably should be a bit more substantive... Josh Hamilton is great. 6th in VORP; great offense for a CF. His SLG is only good for 9th in the league, though, and his on-base skills leave a lot to be desired (.371; barely above Chone Figgins and David DeJesus). What's more, he's not a very good defensive CF. PMR has him in the bottom 10 for the MLB as a whole, which isn't definitive, but isn't a good start.

I think you're right about Quentin and Kinsler -- it's basically a PT issue for those guys. The only guys ahead of Kinsler in VORPr (VORP figured as a rate stat) are Milton Bradley and A-Rod. He played a mean 2B in 2007, but his PMR is down a little this year. Might be noise, or just year-to-year differential.

A-Rod himself is interesting. It almost seems like he has to have a superhuman year to be in contention; it's not enough for him to just hit rockets. He missed some time this year, but still leads the AL in VORP. I think the defense argument (EDIT: and WPA, if you're into that) is the only reason I can deny him the hardware; it's so hard to look past Mauer on that score.

Grady Sizemore hasn't gotten much play; probably because he was on a bad Cleveland team. Great offense from CF, but his defense looks to be only mediocre.

Edited November 19, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[Lowerdeck]

Good for Pedey. There was no clear cut favorite in the AL this year, especially when Hamilton faded and Quentin got hurt. But Pedey had a great year, and is deserving of the honor.

[Emperor Fuckshit]

There is a baseball team in Minnesota.

Joe Mauer is their Catcher.

He is good.

#5 on the OPS+ leaderboard behind a balky DH, a first baseman, a left fielder and Alex Rod (we'll get to him).

#2 on the OBP leaderboard behind Bradley, who played in 5 games this season and WAS A FUCKING DH. (Remember: Not making outs is absolutely the most important thing a hitter can do.)

#4 on the VORP list behind Rodriguez, Sizemore and Pedroia, all of whom provided average defense (going by PMR) at positions easier than catcher, to a lesser or greater degree.

#5 defensive catcher in the AL by PMR. The only other candidate who was in the top 5 at his position by PMR was Kevin Youkilis, who plays first base. Catcher is the hardest position to play. First is the easiest (other than DH, obviously).

#1 by WPA. #1 easy. Context-specific king. If you believe in 'clutch', he's your guy. For the record, Rodriguez was #7 in WPA... on the Yankees.

Mauer also had more PA than Rodriguez, despite being a catcher.

In short, Mauer put together one of the top-five offensive performances in the AL whilst providing above-average defense at the game's toughest position. I don't know how to put it any simpler than that.

(I'm kind of loathe to overstate the WPA argument, even though it helps my case a lot. I don't really believe in 'clutch' as a real phenomenon. But, nevertheless, I think that something like WPA can be useful in making reactive decisions about performance. It's useful for awards voting; less so or not at all for deciding where to spend free agent money, for example. Little to no predictive value, sure. But, like it or not, getting hits in big spots is valuable, and we are measuring value. I would never argue that a context-affected stat like WPA should be the be-all and end-all in such a debate. But we can never take performances out of context entirely, so we may as well use something like WPA as *part* of the equation -- it's at least far more sophisticated than something gauche and useless like RBI or even RISP or Close and Late or something.)

Joe Mauer, guys. Joe Mauer.

Edited November 19, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[MyKILLv2.0]

Bye. Bye Coco a couple years in Boston and only a handful of meaningful moments. Blah... I thought he would be better.