2008 MLB Season

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Bye. Bye Coco a couple years in Boston and only a handful of meaningful moments. Blah... I thought he would be better.

The return is a little disappointing to me. Coco has not lived up to expectations since acquired, but I still think he would've been valuable to have around in 2009: Ellsbury had a streaky rookie campaign; we have to contend with Drew's likely off-days in the outfield; we now have no source of speed on the bench (particularly if Lugo is dealt or starts).

Nevertheless, I'm going to hold off evaluating this trade for a little bit. Ramirez looks like he could be an excellent late-innings option, and the bull-pen was a major weakness last year. What's more, I think this is the sort of move that facilitates another. Is Masterson flipped? Does Buchholz go, and Masterson return to the rotation? Does Delcarmen get packaged to bring something back? Could Ramirez himself be turned right back around?

The sine qua non of this Sox offseason is finding the catcher of the future. I think that all other moves can be linked to that end in one way or another. (Well, except maybe signing Paul McAnulty to a minor-league deal...)

Edited November 20, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[Lowerdeck]

Joe Mauer, guys. Joe Mauer.

Any of us here are voters?

Speaking of which, Mauer didn't even get the most votes of guys on his own team.

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Joe Mauer, guys. Joe Mauer.

Any of us here are voters?

Sadly not. But we're 'people having a discussion about the 2008 AL MVP Award', and no-one other than me (as far as I can see) has made a strong case for Mauer, which is pretty ludicrous.

Speaking of which, Mauer didn't even get the most votes of guys on his own team.

No. Are you lamenting this, using it as evidence that Mauer is a bad choice, or just saying it? In case you're arguing that Morneau was better than Mauer:

Mauer and Morneau had exactly the same OPS+; but Mauer played catcher and Morneau is a first baseman.

Mauer had a much better OBP than Morneau, which OPS undervalues. Morneau was 16th in the AL in OBP; not quite Howard-ian, but not great either.

Mauer was ten runs more valuable by VORP; they are basically equal by MLV. Whether or not you want to give Mauer some extra credit when dealing with counting stats because he plays C, which requires more days off and so creates less playing time, is up to you. (I'd say not, actually, considering that there are guys like Russell Martin and Jason Kendall out there showing some serious durability. Then again, if I'm a Brewers fan, Kendall's durability might not be something to celebrate too vigorously.)

Mauer led the AL (by a considerable margin) in WPA, Morneau was 3rd.

Mauer was an above-average player at the hardest defensive position; Morneau is a bad defensive 1B (2nd worst in the league behind Giambi by PMR). EDIT to note: David Pinto, who compiles PMR, express some surprise about Morneau's ranking. Maybe there are gremlins in the system there -- God knows you can never rule that out when dealing with defensive metrics -- but the analysis would have to be very, very wrong to give Morneau an edge defensively considering the positions the guys play. (In fact, I'm not even sure how possible it is for a 1B to provide more defensive value than an above-average C).

WARP favours Mauer, but I don't know by how much because I don't have Morneau's value to hand. Existing FRAA disclaimers apply again.

Sorry if this seems defensive, and if you weren't arguing for Morneau's superiority then disregard. But Morneau really shouldn't have even been a serious contender (off the top of my head, MAUER, A-Rod, Sizemore and Pedroia are all better choices. So, probably, are Youkilis, Kinsler, Hamilton and Quentin. Maybe even Bradley, but I'm never sure how to handle DHs as regards defense).

Edited November 20, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[HailtotheYo]

I have no problem with Pedroia over Maur. The "best" player doesn't and shouldn't always win the MVP. It's all about your personal meaning of Value.

Pedroia was more valuable to the Red Sox than anyone else was to their team (in regards to those in the discussion). With the injuries they faced this year they could have easily tanked. Pedroia was the spark that kept that team alive and not only got them the wildcard, but nearly got them back on top to take the division. They moved him to cleanup for crying out loud, and the man delivered. While his defense wasn't spectacular (and barely good at all) it wasn't a detriment to the team. He never had a "cold" streak of any significance and like Maur, did many things very well with the bat. If he doesn't have that two month run, the Sox would have spiraled out of the playoff race.

Hamilton - it's hard to be impressive by mashing the ball on a team where everyone else mashes the ball. Had it not been for the injuries on the Rangers, he'd have been one of 4 guys with 30 hrs rather than the only one. If you take him away from that lineup it isn't going to mean much because they're still going to mash the ball and score over 5 runs a game.

"Value" is the key here. EF already made an extinsive push for Maur. He was the leader on a team that pushed for the playoffs and didn't make it. Pedroia was the makeshift leader of an injury laden team that pushed for the playoffs and made it. To me, he's got more "value" in this instance.

Best player =/= always equal most valuable.

Edited November 20, 2008 by HailtotheKing

[CQI13]

HttK, I would say that Youkilis was more valuable to Boston. In a year when Manny gets traded, Ortiz is hurt, Lowell gets hurt, and Bay comes in and has a nice season, Youkilis batted in how many spots in the line up? Played great defensively at 1st base, and considering it's not his natural position, did a very good job at third base. I haven't looked at the batting numbers, but I would venture a guess that they might be better than Pedroia's. I have heard from the Boston media that they were pretty sure that Pedroia would win (given how any time they were on national tv, it was all about Pedroia for the announcers), but they didn't think the margin would have been that great over Youkilis (who I believe finished in third).

Also, I thought Morneaux finished second, not Mauer.

[Lowerdeck]

Joe Mauer, guys. Joe Mauer.

Any of us here are voters?

Sadly not. But we're 'people having a discussion about the 2008 AL MVP Award', and no-one other than me (as far as I can see) has made a strong case for Mauer, which is pretty ludicrous.

Speaking of which, Mauer didn't even get the most votes of guys on his own team.

No. Are you lamenting this, using it as evidence that Mauer is a bad choice, or just saying it? In case you're arguing that Morneau was better than Mauer:

Just saying it. I mean, any of the top four guys were definitely worthy this year. There was no clear cut winner in the bunch, all of them helped their teams greatly and put up solid numbers all around.

[MyKILLv2.0]

"Value" is the key here. EF already made an extinsive push for Maur. He was the leader on a team that pushed for the playoffs and didn't make it. Pedroia was the makeshift leader of an injury laden team that pushed for the playoffs and made it. To me, he's got more "value" in this instance.

Exactly. There was little doubt in the National League that Albert SHOULD have won. He had a 'superman' year (to use EF's term). He was obviously better then anyone else in the NL this year, so the fact that he couldn't lead his team to the playoffs isn't as big of a deal to me, as it is in the AL where as there isn't that one singular 'superman' performer. So in this case, I think carrying your team to the playoffs should mean more then in the NL, which is why I like the MVP going to Pedrioa. You could argue that Youk was as good as Pedrioa, but not better.

[Vendetta]

Mike Mussina retires...

Chicago resigned Ryan Dempster to a 4 year deal worth $52M.

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Pedroia was more valuable to the Red Sox than anyone else was to their team (in regards to those in the discussion). With the injuries they faced this year they could have easily tanked. Pedroia was the spark that kept that team alive and not only got them the wildcard, but nearly got them back on top to take the division.

But it's not like Pedroia was the only consistently good thing about the Sox this year. Aren't we arguing in this thread that Youkilis himself is an MVP candidate? Why was Youks any less sparky? There were also a few sparks emitted by J.D. Drew (137 OPS+ in 109 games) or Jason Bay (128 OPS+ down the stretch). Sure, those guys played fewer games (in Bay's case many fewer), but that's no reason to dismiss their contributions -- you just have to temper them somewhat. Besides, how can one explain the Sox' success this year without reference to Jon Lester's 210 IP of 144 ERA+ work; or Daisuke Matsuzaka 168 innings of 159 ERA+ pitching? Both really valuable.

If you replace any of these players with a replacement-level guy, then the Sox are unlikely to make the playoffs. To single out Pedroia in this regard is weird.

[Pedroia] never had a "cold" streak of any significance

I don't think this should be a relevant consideration, but just for the record:

Pedroia in May: .260/.295/.374 for a .669 OPS.

Mauer in April (his worst month): .295/.357/.387 for a .744 OPS.

Hamilton - it's hard to be impressive by mashing the ball on a team where everyone else mashes the ball.

Why so? Because of Arlington? That's fair enough; but even context-neutral stats love Hamilton. 6th in the league in VORP, 136 OPS+. The only Ranger to put up anything like Hamilton's numbers was Milton Bradley, and he missed a ton of games and was a DH. I'm agreed that he's not the MVP, but more for reasons of defense.

If you take him away from that lineup it isn't going to mean much because they're still going to mash the ball and score over 5 runs a game.

PMLV, a stat designed to measure just this very thing, has Hamilton as #6 in the AL. He's tied with Pedroia and not too far behind Mauer. A team's goal is to score as many and to give up as few runs as possible, by any means. Just because Hamilton's contributions are largely offensive, and the Rangers have a strong line-up, that doesn't make his value any less. Besides which, Hamilton did this whilst playing centerfield; it's incredibly hard to replace his production from that position, unless you have Grady Sizmore hanging around on your bench.

[Mauer] was the leader on a team that pushed for the playoffs and didn't make it. Pedroia was the makeshift leader of an injury laden team that pushed for the playoffs and made...

So, you're saying that you'd be convinced about Mauer if the Twins had won their one-game playoff against Chicago? That if John Danks had had a slightly worse outing, Jim Thome's fly in the 7th had been a little less deep, or Cuddyer had run down the paths a little quicker in the 5th; Joe Mauer would be the MVP?

And how are you defining 'leader'? Just 'best player'? OK, but why bother making that distinction? Players just contribute value by helping to score or prevent runs. Anything else is irrelevant.

Anyway, Pedroia isn't a bad choice. I just don't think he's the best. Enough little things about Mauer add up that I'm certain he should take the award, and I'm yet to be convinced otherwise.

Youkilis batted in how many spots in the line up?

Youks played significant games at 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th, and also some at 3rd and one at 1st. Is this really a major thing to consider, though? It's interesting and kind of cool, but does it make him any more valuable?

Played great defensively at 1st base, and considering it's not his natural position, did a very good job at third base.

No doubt Youkilis is a great defensive 1B; one of the best in the AL. He gets credit for that, but you also have to consider that playing first i) limits his value defensively and ii) makes it easier to find a replacement for his bat. Incidentally, 3rd is definitely Youks' natural position. He played 272 minor league games there, compared to 58 at 1B.

I haven't looked at the batting numbers, but I would venture a guess that they might be better than Pedroia's.

It's close:

Youkilis does have a better OPS+, 143 to 122. However, the difference in positions bridges that gap and maybe more, I'd say.

Youkilis also has a better OBP, which is valuable.

VORP has Pedroia as 6 runs better, which shows you how difficult it is to get great offense from 2B as compared to 1B. PMLV also prefers Pedroia for the same reason.

Pedroia was better by WPA, ranking #6 in the AL compared with Youkilis' 13th. Not definitive, but something to consider.

Basically, Youks has the better raw numbers, but Pedroia plays a more difficult position (and does so respectably). I'd maybe give the edge to Pedey, but it's essentially a wash.

Anyway, I'm bored of looking through these numbers now. Mikel, HttK and LD are right in that it was a very close race. I favour Mauer for a lot of reasons I've already outlined. If you don't, and prefer Pedroia, then that's great. I'm a Sox fan so I'm not going to get too mad about it, and the race is really tight. I just think it's sad that Mauer gets overlooked because his raw numbers aren't as good as some of the bad-glove 1Bs that people love talking about, and because he plays for the Twins.

Edited November 20, 2008 by Emperor Fuckshit

[CQI13]

Saw about Mussina's retirement. Good logic too. He said something along the lines that he didn't want the game to hold on to him for 2 or 3 more seasons. I'm assuming he means that the closer you get to 300 wins, the more you end up having to stay. Randy Johnson is at what...295? At this point he HAS to stay to get to 300. Mussina would need at least 2 years to get to that. I think he falls into the Hall of Very Good.

[Emperor Fuckshit]

Seeing Mussina go pleases me. He's not too much of a weapon at this stage, but his long-time association with the Yanks and general personal disposition just generally make me vomit. It's a little surprising, but I think CQI is exactly right -- as soon as you decide to make that run at 300 (and HOF certainty) you can be hanging around forever and ever indefinitely. He was pretty strong at the end of last year, but maybe that helps him make this decision in a 'go out on top'-type way.

Glad to see the back of him. I'll look into his Cooperstown worthiness when I get more of a chance, but my instincts say 'no' at this point.

[GhostMachine]

Saw about Mussina's retirement. Good logic too. He said something along the lines that he didn't want the game to hold on to him for 2 or 3 more seasons. I'm assuming he means that the closer you get to 300 wins, the more you end up having to stay. Randy Johnson is at what...295? At this point he HAS to stay to get to 300. Mussina would need at least 2 years to get to that. I think he falls into the Hall of Very Good.

Yep. On 1st and 10 yesterday, Skip Bayless and Scoop Jackson talked about Mussina (the topic was whether he's a future Hall of Famer or not) and they both thought he was borderline for the Hall. Personally, I hope he doesn't get in, myself, or that if he does its not on the first or even second try.

Mussina was never a dominant, elite pitcher people would talk about all the time like say Curt Schilling and he has a lousy postseason record (7-9, if I remember right), which should go against him.

[HailtotheYo]

I disagree. I think he should be in, but barely. I've looked over the lifetime stats and in all honesty Schilling doesn't just jump out over Mussina. He does in everyone's mind because of the post season. That in of itself is a different discussion because I feel that your post season performance shouldn't over/under shadow your actual career.

Mussina actually was pretty dominant early on (67-25) his first four full years in the bigs. His first ten seasons in the bigs he had 3 or more complete games. 11 seasons of 15+ wins. People also forget that he went to college rather than straight to "professional" baseball. He got a later start than most in regards to "professional" coaching. Peter Gammons pointed out that of his era only two other pitchers did that and were better or as good (Clemens/Johnson). Mussina also has the longevity factor and how much that plays in but his last season was a 20 win one and arguably his best. Mussina was also robbed of 20 win seasons in the strike years of '94/'95.

When you put him up against Schilling the only big difference is the post season record. Yes, Schilling had the stretch with Arizona but other than that was a pretty mediocre pitcher the rest of his career. Schilling's 162 game avg for his career are 14-9 with a 3.46 ERA. Mussina's are 17-9 with a 3.68 ERA. Schilling was a 6 time all star, Mussina a 5 time all star. Schilling doesn't even know what a Gold Glove is, Mussina has 7 including 4 in a row. Schilling was in the top ten in ERA 9 times, Mussina 11. Schilling was top 10 in wins 5 times, Mussina 9 times. Schilling top ten in WHIP 11 times, Mussina 12. They both finished in the top 10 in K's per 9 innings ten times. Mussina was top ten in innings 8 times, Schilling seven. Schilling finished top ten in K's 9 times, Mussina 10. Mussina was top 10 in K/BB 15 times, Schilling 11. Mussina had one losing season as a full time big leaguer, Schilling had two (granted one was partly due to injury shortened but he still started 24 games).

So, when you go up and down the line, Schilling is not that much, if any better at all. You can make the argument that he was on horrible Philly teams, but Mussina was on horrible Baltimore teams as well. So it goes down to the post season. After looking at the career numbers it is very clear that neither Schilling nor Mussina's performances are actually indicative of how good of a pitcher they are. Schilling overperformed and Mussina underperformed. That doesn't elevate Schilling's actual ability nor does it diminish Mussina's.

If Schilling is in the HOF, Mussina is in.

EDIT - Skip Bayless if a fucking moron.

Edited November 21, 2008 by HailtotheKing

[gunnar hendershow]

I hope if Mussina goes to the Hall he goes in as an Oriole. His best years were in Baltimore.

That said, I'd put him on the borderline, but with so many players in his era on the "Balco blacklist" I can see him getting him largely as a reward for staying clean and clearly being capable of 300 wins if he wanted to hang on long enough.