Survivor - Blood vs. Water (SPOILERS)

[RPS]

It's funny, because as the episodes go on, Monica becomes Sherri from last season. Delusional, out of the loop, strategic dud.

[The Quasi Juice]

After Vytas, Tyson and Monica, Ciera has had the most confessionals actually. Katie is last with 7, such a wallflower.

[GoGo Yubari]

Oh, Tina

Even though she lapsed into the same "we have to vote out the bad people" self-righteousness that was at play with booting Jerri and Amber in Outback, I still love her.

[EddieG]

Oh, Monica, how can you look so smug knowing you're pretty much next (after Katie anyway)

[The Quasi Juice]

Strange that Vytas and Aras got so much air time early on and now they are both at Redemption Island already. Especially Vytas got WAY more confessionals than most. He's either the one returning to the game eventually or they are pushing hard for him to be a memorable cast member so he can return another time.

Meanwhile Tyson is playing an excellent game. Ciera turning on her mom, awesome. Why boot Katie next anyway? She's horrible at talking to people and not good in challenges either. Take out Laura M and Monica first.

Edited November 15, 2013 by The Quasi Juice

[RPS]

Monica is the goat. Everything about her screams "I WON'T GET A VOTE".

[GoGo Yubari]

Yeah, Monica is an amazing goat. She's Dawn without the genuine strategic contribution or likable qualities.

[EddieG]

Tyson is playing a great game, yet still gets a vote everytime, presumably from the same person as the hand writing looks similar.

[The Quasi Juice]

I thought it was from Tina?

[The Quasi Juice]

What a great season. This is why I said I like Ciera, she's savvy, she gets it and is a much better player than her mom. I love how she lied to Katie and found out about the idol. Next week looks good too

Edit: Holy shit, Todd Herzog was on Dr Phil this week, look at this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Vcj-wA9jaY . He's a hardcore alcoholic now, so unreal. He's been on podcasts the last few months and sounded just fine. He's drinking two bottles of vodka every day. He was on Jerri's podcast this week and passed out in front of everybody.

Edited November 21, 2013 by The Quasi Juice

[Blehschmidt]

If Ciera plays her cards right, I think she has a fantastic shot at winning.

[RPS]

I felt that was a bad move by Tyson and Gervase. Taking out Laura frees up Ciera to join with Caleb, Hayden and Katie. Especially when the game is presumably split up Tyson/Gervase/Monica and Caleb/Hayden and now Katie/Ciera. I would have probably targeted Hayden.

[Mr Evil Guy]

I love Tyson. He's the man. I like Ciera and Hayden too.

Watching that Todd Herzog video in complete disbelief

[GoGo Yubari]

Such a deserving end for Vytas. So many confessionals about being able to manipulate women culminating in two women conspiring to put him out of the game.

EDIT: Golly this season's good. This season's really good. Full-on Tyson vs. Ciera for the win now.

[RPS]

Ciera is a pretty terrible player.

And she gets dumber. There is a preview floating around for next week that explicitely spoils.

There is a tie between newbies and vets and they draw for rocks. So Ciera would prefer to not blindside a vet, vote off someone from her original tribe, than flip back to the people she just bertrayed even though it goes to a tie. Dumb dumb dumb.

[EddieG]

I watched Redemption Island, aaaaaaaaaand I'm done.

[GoGo Yubari]

Ciera is a pretty terrible player.

And she gets dumber. There is a preview floating around for next week that explicitely spoils.

Yeah, the preview is baffling if it's seriously that exact configuration on the vote next week. I still think her edit is implying she's got the second-best shot, though.

The best move she could have made was using knowledge of her and her mom's position in the tribe to try and get Hayden/Caleb to flip last week and bring Katie along. But I guess she figures she has guaranteed F4 with the veterans and thinks she has a better shot vs. Tyson and Gervase, also assuming that Tyson is basically playing a Kim Spradlin game where he's not actually that concerned about bringing goats (which given that he's written off the possibility of Monica going to the final in confessionals repeatedly isn't an unfair read). Unfortunately she can't really play the "I didn't screw anyone" game that she might have before this week, which puts her in a bad spot if she actually makes it to the end with Tyson.

Is it explicitly said it's a newbies/vet split? Because Monica flipping on her alliance makes waaaaaay more sense than Ciera flipping on her alliance.

[RPS]

Ciera is a pretty terrible player.

And she gets dumber. There is a preview floating around for next week that explicitely spoils.

Yeah, the preview is baffling if it's seriously that exact configuration on the vote next week. I still think her edit is implying she's got the second-best shot, though.

The best move she could have made was using knowledge of her and her mom's position in the tribe to try and get Hayden/Caleb to flip last week and bring Katie along. But I guess she figures she has guaranteed F4 with the veterans and thinks she has a better shot vs. Tyson and Gervase, also assuming that Tyson is basically playing a Kim Spradlin game where he's not actually that concerned about bringing goats (which given that he's written off the possibility of Monica going to the final in confessionals repeatedly isn't an unfair read). Unfortunately she can't really play the "I didn't screw anyone" game that she might have before this week, which puts her in a bad spot if she actually makes it to the end with Tyson.

Is it explicitly said it's a newbies/vet split? Because Monica flipping on her alliance makes waaaaaay more sense than Ciera flipping on her alliance.

Not explicitly, no. But I just can't see it being Monica. I mean, she's playing a scatterbrain game, but I think it would make more sense for Ciera to be like 'oh, wait... maybe Tyson will win?' and realize that her move was stupid than for Monica to flip. Though, given the edit of Monica being paranoid, maybe it builds to Monica ditching Tyson and Gervase? I thought intuitively it was vets versus newbs, but it could be Monica going apeshit. The video does, however, spoil who loses the duel.

Re: edits to win... I think Hayden's got an alright shot too. If I were to rank it, it'd likely go Tyson, Hayden, Ciera, Gervase, Katie, Monica, with Katie and Monica having no chance of winning and Hayden and Ciera being quite close in ability to win. I don't think any of the returnees have a chance at winning, either.

[snakesonaplane]

From his 'confessionals' Hayden has always struck me as thoroughly naive, he has a lot of enthusiasm for strategic play and wants very much to be a memorable player, but I don't think he's sharp enough. I feel like his [attempted] play with Caleb on the last episode exposed his poor strategic sensibility (such a rookie error). I think he'll be lucky to continue further and defininately does not have the cunning to make final three (unless things fall apart really badly for the sharper and better organised players).

Too hard to pick the winner at this stage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Tyson and Gervase in two of the final three spots if they keep their pairing strong. The main problem they have at this stage, particularly for Tyson is that as the numbers thin the votes become much closer affairs, and although Ciera seems to be a reliable vote, Monica is sort of crazy and more unpredictable.

I want Tyson to win it because he is the most likable and has played a tight game. I like Gervase now too, but he was such a dick at the start and hasn't played as good a game and is sort of in a lackey role (which may lead to him betraying Tyson?).

Edited November 29, 2013 by snakesonaplane

[Alex.]

im going for gervase, was always my favorite from the first season!