2010/2011 NBA Thread

[Lowerdeck]

But a "Big 3" of Paul, Anthony, and Lopez in 2 years will definitely be a contender in the East.

Oh that would be lovely. Especially when Boston falls off, the Nets can once again take their place as power of the East.

[Trey]

Looking at Anthony and Deng in isolation like that is bad for two reasons. Luol Deng probably hasn't drawn consistent double teams since HS, and Carmelo can pretty much get to the line at will in the playoffs. In terms of being a HUGE upgrade in the regular season, Anthony probably isn't, but if you can give up some spare parts and a draft pick you won't need to get Carmelo you pretty much have to do it because he can be the difference between a second round loss in 6/7, and a shot at the NBA Finals.

Yeah, but Chicago has their own budding superstar in Derrick Rose who is still getting his playoff chops but has shown signs of being a guy that could be a #1 on a contending team and while obviously Carmelo is an upgrade, I just don't think it's worth the risk of hurting our defense to pick him up for what it would cost. Deng/Gibson/1st is about my limit on what I'd give for him and I'm a huge Carmelo fan, I just think that Deng fits in better with what the Bulls have put together.

I also came across another post about Deng on that same Bulls blog ranking him against the other small forwards. Deng may not be the #1 guy or have a flashy game, but he's a very solid player. Again, spoilered due to length.

According to Kelly Dwyer of Yahoo!’s Ball Don’t Lie, Luol Deng is the eight-best small forward in the NBA, behind LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger and Paul Pierce.

Here’s Dwyer’s commentary: “After a year or two in the wilderness, Luol finally got his wits about him in 2009-10, averaging 17.6 points and 7.3 rebounds alongside his typically sound defense. Deng also chipped in about a steal and block per game, and this is important: Luol came in at under two turnovers a game for the sixth time in a six-year career. I understand that his midrange, rarely dribbling game doesn’t see him taking many chances, but to be able to field a solid-scoring forward for nearly 38 minutes a game and see him turn the ball over just 1.9 times per? Good stuff.”

That seems fair. Now let’s take a quick peek at the comparitive 2010-11 salaries of Dwyer’s top eight SFs (from ShamSports): LeBron ($14,500,000), Durant ($6,053,663 from his rookie contract but jumping to $13,603,750 in 2011-12), ‘Melo ($17,149,243), Wallace ($10,500,000), Iggy ($12,345,250), Granger ($10,973,202), Pierce ($13,876,321) and Deng ($11,345,000).

This biggest knock against Deng is his supposedly cap-killing contract. And yet based on Dwyer’s rankings, Deng’s pay is roughly commensurate with his standing among the league’s elite small forwards.

This — in addition to all the recent talk about potentially trying to flip Deng (and other assets) for ‘Melo — got me to wondering how Luol ranks statistically compared to the league’s other small forwards.

Deng versus the Average Small Forward:

According to Hoopdata, the average NBA small forward gives his team 9.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG (2.7 DR and 0.8 OR), 1.4 APG, 0.7 SPG and 0.4 BPG while shooting 44.9% from the field, 34.9% from downtown and 78.6% from the line (on 2.2 FTA).

Last season, Deng averaged 17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG (5.4 DR and 1.9 OR), 2.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 and 0.9 BPG while shooting 46.6% from the field, 38.6% from beyond the arc and 76.4% from the line (on 4.7 FTA).

At a glance, it’s clear that Deng is solidly above average. But let’s delve further. The following comparitive rankings also come from Hoopdata. I have compared Deng to other “full time” small forwards — that is, SFs who played 40+ games and 30+ MPG — across several categories.

Basic:

Deng ranked 4th in RPG, 4th in Offensive RPG, 4th in Defensive RPG, 4th in BPG, 8th in FTA, 8th in FG%, 9th in PPG and 10th in 3P%.

Defense / Rebounding:

Deng ranked 4th in Offensive Rebounding Rate, 5th in Total Rebounding Rate, 5th in Charges Drawn, 6th in Defensive Rebounding Rate and 7th in Defensive Plays (Steals + Blocks + Charges Drawn).

Shooting / Scoring:

Despite ranking 8th in FG% and 10th in 3P%, Deng ranked only 13th in FT%, 14th in True Shooting Percentage and 16th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. He ranked 8th in Field Goals Assisted, but that means he didn’t really create his own shots. He was also 9th in Times Blocked.

Believe it or not, Deng ranked 8th in And1s (times scoring a basket while also drawing a shooting foul) and 8th in And1% (And1s / Field Goals Attempted). He ranked 9th in Free Throw Rate.

Shot Locations:

Deng ranked 9th in FG% at the rim (61.2), 4th inside 10 feet (47.3), 9th from 10-15 feet (39.4), 6th from 16-23 feet (40.0).

He ranked 10th in attempts at the rim (4.3), 10th inside 10 feet (1.3), 10th from 10-15 feet (0.9), 3rd from 16-23 feet (6.7) and 18th from three-point range. So as we already knew, Luol “specializes” in chucking from 16-23 feet…the least efficient shot in basketball.

Advanced:

Deng ranked 4th in Win Shares, 6th in NBA Efficiency Rating, 7th in Adjusted Win Shares, 8th in Player Efficiency Rating and 8th in Adjusted Player Efficiency Rating.

Random:

Deng ranked 4th in Double-Doubles (13), behind only Gerald Wallace (33), LeBron James (31) and Kevin Durant (25). He had two more Double-Doubles than Carmelo Anthony.

Final thoughts:

Note all the top 10 and even top five rankings. These seem to synch up pretty well with Dwyer’s assessment. The reality — and Bulls fans would do well to realize this — is that Luol Deng is one of the best small forwards in the league. Analysis and statistics bear this out. There’s no denying it.

Are there gaps in his game? Sure. Deng takes too many long-range, contested two-pointers and doesn’t do much to create shots for his teammates. He’s also had his share of injury problems: Other than the 2006-2007 season — during which he appeared in all 82 regular season games and 10 playoff games — Deng has missed 21, 4, 19, 33 and 12 games.

But when he’s healthy, Deng provides consistent and solid (if not spectacular) production. If you parse the numbers and really examine what Luol brings to the team, it becomes strikingly obvious that he’s not the wildly overpaid bust that many people think he is. His status among the top 10 small forwards is well-deserved.

Edited October 16, 2010 by Trey

[Colossus]

Deng, Taj and a 1st? I am jumping at that. The rumored Deng, Noah, Taj and a 1st would have been an terrible deal. Yeah, you add Carmelo, but you lose an top 10 Defensive Center, a guy that will do absolutely everything to win, a perfect compliment to Booz and the centerpiece for the new coach's defense

[naiwf]

The problem I have with those posts about Deng is that he's not a # 1 option in the playoffs on a team with a shot at winning anything. Carmelo on the other hand can fill that role. I know that the teams are not exactly comparable, but David Lee averaged 20.2 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 3.6 APG, shot 54.5% from the field and 81.2% from the line last season. Statistically that probably ranks him in the upper echelon of PF in the game, but he's not nearly as valuable to a winning team as his stat line would suggest.

[Trey]

The only thing you can take from New York is percentages due to their style of play. And I think Carmelo could be the #1 guy, but I keep coming back to I just don't think there would be enough shots to go around for it to make a huge difference and Rose is the #1 guy in Chicago, they aren't lacking an alpha dog.

[Mofoticon]

The Bulls were dying to get rid of Deng for salary relief and nobody was buying this summer...

That says it all to me

[Colossus]

The only thing you can take from New York is percentages due to their style of play. And I think Carmelo could be the #1 guy, but I keep coming back to I just don't think there would be enough shots to go around for it to make a huge difference and Rose is the #1 guy in Chicago, they aren't lacking an alpha dog.

I think that 'Melo could be willing to have the ball in his hands a little less, to be apart of a pseudo Big 3

But I would only want Melo if the price wasn't too high. Like Simmons said:

6. Chicago

Love the Rose-Noah-Boozer trio. All three play hard and complement each other. Actually, that's the biggest reason I didn't want Chicago to make a run at Carmelo. On paper, yeah … Carmelo is a better player than Noah. But why break up the Boozer-Noah combo just to get a crunch-time scorer when you already have a creator in Rose? Lose Noah and you're losing a top-3 rebounder/shot-blocker, a total gamer, one of the most unselfish players in the league, and -- most importantly -- someone who allows Boozer to defend the other team's inferior big guy and just worry about scoring and crashing the boards. The dirty little secret of the 2010 Finals was this: Size does matter. When two teams crank up the defense in a Game 7 to "WE ARE TRYING AS HARD AS WE POSSIBLY CAN" heights and the pressure rises accordingly, suddenly it's about protecting the paint, the rim and the boards. That's it. The Celtics couldn't do it. That's why they lost. And that's why they got bigger this summer.

Back to the Bulls: You can't tell me that shaking things up so Carlos Boozer is your No. 1 rim/paint/backboard defender was a smart direction. Especially after we watched what happened with Utah these past few years. You win titles with rebounding and defense, and also with one guy who can create offense when you absolutely need it. Knowing this -- and we know this -- how does it make sense to trade Noah and Deng for Carmelo when you already have Derrick Rose? And by the way, when does Carmelo's NBA résumé of inspiring playoff flameouts start to override his Syracuse title during a horrible college basketball year? Aren't we there? Or close? I like that the Bulls stood pat. Smart move.

[Trey]

They were trying to move Deng that hard because they wanted the cap space for this last free agency, not because the guy is the next Jerome James/Eddy Curry.

[Colossus]

Yeah. And because he is vastly overpaid. I really really like Deng, but he gets what, 13\14M a year? That's too much for him, IMO

[wrathofcarnage]

After this summer (specifically contracts like the ones given to Rudy Gay and Travis Outlaw) Deng's contract is actually reasonable for a three of his caliber. His long range shot has kept improving and he looks good in Thibodeau's offense so far. Not to mention he's one of the best rebounders for his position. #1 offensive option? Never. Great third scorer behind Rose and Boozer? Definitely.

[Lowerdeck]

How long before Outlaw gets cut anyway?

[Panni]

Seeing as how the season is now just a few days away here's some predictions.

Eastern Conference Finals - Miami Heat d. Orlando Magic (7 games)

Western Conference Finals - Los Angeles Lakers d. Oklahoma City Thunder (6 games)

NBA Finals - Miami Heat d. Los Angeles Lakers (5 games)

Surprising Playoff Teams - Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, & Golden State Warriors

MVP - Kevin Durant

Rookie of the Year - John Wall

[gunnar hendershow]

Since it's time...

Eastern Conference

Miami

Boston

Orlando

Chicago

Atlanta

Milwaukee

Charlotte

New York

------------

Washington

Indiana

Philadelphia

Toronto

New Jersey

Cleveland

Detroit

Western Conference

LA Lakers

Oklahoma City

San Antonio

Utah

Portland

Dallas

Houston

Denver

----------

New Orleans

Golden State

LA Clippers

Phoenix

Minnesota

New Orleans

Sacramento

NBA Playoffs

Eastern Conference

Miami over New York

Chicago over Atlanta

Boston over Charlotte

Orlando over Milwaukee

Miami over Chicago

Boston over Orlando

Boston over Miami

Western Conference

LA Lakers over Denver

Utah over Portland

Oklahoma City over Houston

Dallas over San Antonio

LA Lakers over Utah

Oklahoma City over Dallas

LA Lakers over Oklahoma City

NBA Finals

LA Lakers over Boston

[naiwf]

Playoff teams in alphabetical order

East - Atlanta, Boston (Atlantic winners), Charlotte , Chicago (Central winners), Miami (SE winners), Milwaukee, New York, Orlando

West - Dallas, Houston, LA Lakers (Pacific winners), New Orleans, Oklahoma City (NW winners), Portland, San Antonio (SW winners), Utah

Eastern Conference Finals: (head) Miami def. Boston in 7, (heart) Orlando def. Boston in 6

Western Conference Finals: (head) Lakers def. Utah in 6, (heart) Thundah~! def. Lakers in 7 on a last second three by the Durantula

NBA Finals: Lakers def. Miami in 6 because Miami has no size

MVP: Kevin Durant based on his 28-31 PPG, 8 RPG and Oklahoma City winning 55 games.

ROY: Blake Griffin nips John Wall

DPOY: Dwight Howard yet again

All NBA 1st Team: Bryant, Durant, Howard, James, Wade

All NBA 2nd Team: Anthony, Nowitzki, Paul, Stoudemire, Williams

[phatman]

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat 64-18

2. Boston Celtics 56-26

3. Orlando Magic 53-29

4. Chicago Bulls 49-33

5. Atlanta Hawks 51-31

6. Milwaukee Bucks 47-35

7. New York Knicks 43-39

8. Indiana Pacers 41-41

----------

9. Charlotte Bobcats 41-41

10. Washington Wizards 40-42

11. New Jersey Nets 40-42

12. Detroit Pistons 36-46

13. Philadelphia 76er's 31-51

14. Cleveland Cavaliers 26-56

15. Toronto Raptors 24-58

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers 55-27

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 54-28

3. Dallas Mavericks 52-30

4. Utah Jazz 51-31

5. Portland Trailblazers 50-32

6. Memphis Grizzlies 48-34

7. San Antonio Spurs 46-36

8. Los Angeles Clippers 46-36

----------

9. Houston Rockets 44-38

10. New Orleans Hornets 41-41

11. Denver Nuggets 40-42

12. Phoenix Suns 30-52 ()

13. Golden State Warriors 29-53

14. Sacramento Kings 27-55

15. Minnesota Timberwolves 25-57

Playoffs

1. Miami Heat def. 8. Indiana Pacers 4-0

2. Boston Celtics def. 7. New York Knicks 4-2

3. Orlando Magic def. 6. Milwaukee Bucks 4-3

4. Chicago Bulls def. 5. Atlanta Hawks 4-2

1. Los Angeles Lakers def. 8. Los Angeles Clippers 4-3

2. Oklahoma City Thunder def. San Antonio Spurs 4-1

6. Memphis Grizzlies def. 3. Dallas Mavericks 4-3

5. Portland Trailblazers def. 4. Utah Jazz 4-2

---------------

1. Miami Heat def. 4. Chicago Bulls 4-1

2. Boston Celtics def. 3. Orlando Magic 4-3

5. Portland Trailblazers def. 1. Los Angeles Lakers 4-3

2. Oklahoma City Thunder def. 6. Memphis Grizzlies 4-2

--------------

2. Boston Celtics def. 1. Miami Heat 4-2

5. Portland Trailblazers def. 2. Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3

--------------

Boston Celtics def. Portland Trailblazers 4-1 and win NBA Title

[gunnar hendershow]

The only team with the size to take on LA this year is Boston, let's not forget they were a Perkins injury away from probably beating the Lakers in Game 7 last year. I'm sure DMN would disagree though haha.

That said, the additions of Steve Blake and Matt Barnes just take an already solid Laker team to a new level for the playoffs. I also can't envision the veterans on Boston staying healthy all season.

[maninblack]

Hmm...the Celtics pummeling the Heat in the first half of opening day.

I'd be surprised to see the Heat lose badly in this game, but it's just the first day.

EDIT: The Celtics win it.

Edited October 27, 2010 by maninblack

[gunnar hendershow]

Eventually they'll set it up so LeBron plays Point, then they just need someone to fill the mid-range game. They lack size, but this squad will still win 60 in the regular season. If Wade were doing just a little better tonight they probably would have won.

In the playoffs though? Too many holes. Not enough size.

Edited October 27, 2010 by damshow

[Trey]

Bulls have looked really good all season I've thought except for their lack of ability to contest 3 point shots. Still, once Boozer gets back this could be a championship caliber team. Oh, and just for kicks, Cleveland's response to the LBJ video courtest of Matthew Berry's twitter account.

Edited November 5, 2010 by Trey

[Colossus]

I have been wondering, if LeBron, instead of leaving for Miami left for, let's say, the Bulls, would it be the same reaction from Cleveland. Probably yes, but just wondering