2011 MLB Season

[Ananas]

The Orioles have an interesting line-up going into the new season. If Derek Lee can have a comeback year, then mixing him in with Vlad, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts could create a very potent offence. Mark Reynolds is a slugger, but we will see if he can adjust to AL pitching. I don't like his 200+ strikeouts each year, and it could go even higher against pitchers he hasn't seen. Adam Jones and Matt Weiters could also improve as they continue to grow into top level players.

I think the Orioles will struggle a bit, since they haven't improved the bullpen and their pitchers are all young. I think the Orioles will be much better then last season and take a leap, becoming a 80 win team. I also see Toronto pushing 90, with Tampa coming down to 80.

Where do the 16 wins lost come from for Tampa? The only substantial loss they suffered was Carl Crawford, and although the Damon/Jennings platoon won't recoup all of that value I'd predict they get more out of Ramirez than they did Pena last year. They lost a couple of bullpen pieces but replaced them wisely with Farnsworth and Peralta, and moved Garza because he's kind of superfluous with all of Tampa's live arms and stacked their farm system more than it already was. IMO they set themselves up brilliantly with an absolute ton of picks (11 of the top 75) and aren't significantly worse than they were the year prior. I see them as a 90 win team so long as they don't run into significant injury trouble, should be in the discussion come September.

[The Buscher]

I really love spring training. Just knowing that baseball is right around the corner makes me a happy camper and fills me with optimism.

I'm a more optimistic Mets fan than most. Just about everybody from newspapers to MLB Network to other Mets fans have them ticketed for a 4th place finish. The Phillies obviously have the best team on paper but I really don't see what the big deal is about the Braves and especially the Marlins. Alderson and Collins get a pass this year no matter what but I can't write them off - if everybody stays healthy the Mets should have their best lineup since 06/07. I also like their 1-3 starters and have a good feeling that one of Young or Capuano, probably Young, will have a serviceable year since his game works well for Citi Field. I'd argue it's a better looking rotation than the '06 one that got them to the playoffs. If nothing else I think the Mets can stay in contention for longer than anybody is giving them credit for.

Lineup

SS Jose Reyes

RF Angel Pagan

3B David Wright

CF Carlos Beltran

LF Jason Bay

1B Ike Davis

C Josh Thole

2B Daniel Murphy/Brad Emaus

Rotation

RHP Mike Pelfrey

RHP R.A. Dickey

LHP Jon Niese

RHP Chris Young

LHP Chris Capuano

Bullpen

RHP Francisco Rodriguez

RHP Bobby Parnell

RHP D.J. Carrasco

RHP Taylor Buchholz

LHP Taylor Tankersley/Tim Byrdak/Michael O'Connor

RHP Manny Acosta/Pedro Beato

LHP Pat Misch

Bench

C Mike Nickeas (Ronny Paulino when he gets off suspension)

IF Daniel Murphy/Brad Emaus

IF Chin-lung Hu

OF Scott Hairston

OF Willie Harris/Nick Evans

Edited February 14, 2011 by kbusch22

[sahyder1]

I agree with you. I'm not saying the Mets will go out and win the division but they will surely be better then what people are giving them credit for. The lineup is pretty good. Beltran in a contract year should be a big boost for you guys. Reyes starting a year healthy will be huge. Ike Davis really impressed me last year Bay should have a bounce back year as well. The progression of Niese and Pelfrey will be a big key. Bold Prediction: Oliver Perez 10 wins.

As for my Angels, I am expecting them to win the division this year. Losing Morales was huge last. I think Vernon Wells will be helped by the change in scenery. I love the starting pitching and like having both Downs and Takahashi in the bullpen. I'm not sold on Rodney as the closer though.

Edited February 14, 2011 by sahyder1

[gunnar hendershow]

I can't see the Angels missing out on the West crown in back-to-back years either. Rangers had a very good team last year, and would have made the playoffs with or without Cliff Lee. He was that added incentive that sent them to the Series however. This year I just can't envision the pitching being on the same level, though they and the Angels will be battling into the final weeks. Pitchers and catchers just reported so it's a bit early on the prediction front though.

As for the Mets. Anywhere from 2nd to 4th is a distinct possibility, and not a lot will separate the teams in those positions. Barring injury, the Phillies are going to run away with the division and have it locked up rather early into September. That doesn't mean another team from the East won't be getting the Wild Card, and the Mets are a team who (if the pitching performs) can do it as realistically as Atlanta and Florida.

[The Buscher]

Bold Prediction: Oliver Perez 10 wins.

Wow...that IS bold. Frankly I don't even think Perez is going to make the Opening Day roster. Alderson has said that Castillo and Perez will be released if they don't earn their way onto the roster, and I just feel like there are too many guys ahead of Perez on the depth chart. If he looks even remotely like he has the last 2 years during ST, he's a goner.

[naiwf]

That EWB Mets kool-aid sure does taste sweet They'll be fortunate to win 80 games this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade off key pieces to cut payroll since the Wilponzis have made it clear that they want the payroll to be significantly lower than it's projected to be this year.

If the rumors are true that Pujols is looking for upwards of $300 million, then I think he's going to be mighty disappointed when no one comes within $100 million of that number in the offseason. The Yankees, Phillies and Sawx don't need a 1B, I doubt that the Mets or Dodgers could afford him, I don't know that the Angels will ever outspend anyone to get a big name player so he's faced with going to the Cubs for less than he wants or staying with the Cards after basically slamming the negotiating door shut on them.

[sahyder1]

Bold Prediction: Oliver Perez 10 wins.

Wow...that IS bold. Frankly I don't even think Perez is going to make the Opening Day roster. Alderson has said that Castillo and Perez will be released if they don't earn their way onto the roster, and I just feel like there are too many guys ahead of Perez on the depth chart. If he looks even remotely like he has the last 2 years during ST, he's a goner.

I agree, him getting cut is a very real possibility but I think he can win the 5th starter position. He's not exactly competing against a strong slate for the 4th/5th starter job.

We've had 4 straight posts praising the Mets....it is about time for Naiwf to come in with a "poor old Mets fan" post.

Edit: And there it is.

Edit2: Pujols and Cardinals have set a Wednesday deadline to agree on an extension. After that Pujols is not negotiating until the offseason. I don't blame him for seeking a 10 year/$30 million deal given what other guys are getting on the market.

btw, if Pujols' name is on that BALCO list now would be a good time for someone to leak it.

Edited February 14, 2011 by sahyder1

[naiwf]

How can you not blame a guy who will be 32 years old at the time for asking for a $300 million contract extension? He could get either 10 years OR $30 million per, but not both. The Cardinals screwed themselves when they paid Holliday way too much money, but compounding that for Pujols isn't the answer. They're not the type of team that will invest $50 million per on 2 guys. When the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies won't be in the bidding process, it's foolish to think you can get that kind of money.

[HailtotheYo]

Part of the problem for the Cardinals is that they do have money, and everybody knows it.

[sahyder1]

How can you not blame a guy who will be 32 years old at the time for asking for a $300 million contract extension? He could get either 10 years OR $30 million per, but not both. The Cardinals screwed themselves when they paid Holliday way too much money, but compounding that for Pujols isn't the answer. They're not the type of team that will invest $50 million per on 2 guys. When the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies won't be in the bidding process, it's foolish to think you can get that kind of money.

I didn't say he's going to get the money or that I would necessarily give it to him if I was in that position. I don't even know if he is that money hungry but just look at the contracts that have been dished out around baseball. He has been underpaid throughout his career. I'm pretty sure I saw a list earlier that didn't even have him listed as one of the top 25 salary guys in the league. If Ryan Howard got $125 for 5 I can see where Pujols would think he's worth a lot more then that. Holliday did say this week that he would agree to defer part of his contract in order to help the Cardinals lock in Pujols. A-Rod's contract takes him up until his 42nd birthday does it not?

[naiwf]

That's true. But I just don't see them being willing to spend it, even on Pujols.

Another Mets related note, if K-Rod finishes 54 games next season his contract gets guaranteed for 2012 at $17.5 million. Thanks Omar! Therefore, expect to see him as a set-up man in certain situations and other guys pitching the 9th in meaningless games as the Mets look to buy him out at the end of the season.

EDIT: A-Rod plays for the Yankees right? Therefore they were in on the bidding which is the point I'm making. They won't be in it for Pujols. So he can either choose to play for the Cubs or Cards since every other high payroll team is out of the mix. Neither one of those teams should go anywhere near $300 million. Unless they decide to go Texas/A-Rod contract stupid there's no need to outbid the one other team by that much.

Upon further review it may just be 54 appearances total for K-Rod, but in either case the Mets won't use him as much which means they'll rely on other guys to do the heavy lifting to avoid paying him in 2012.

Edited February 14, 2011 by naiwf

[sahyder1]

I'm not sure he wants to play in New York but Albert Pujols, Yankees DH would seriously annoy me.

Edited February 14, 2011 by sahyder1

[naiwf]

They already have a few DH's on the team or in waiting - Posada/Montero, Jeter & A-Rod. If they didn't have Tex, I'd fully expect him to go to the Bronx. I would hope that MLB isn't so fucked up that the Yankees would ever acquire a $300 million player to split time with a $275 million player at DH.

[gunnar hendershow]

Nobody saved the space for Pujols because they all figured he was a Cardinal for life, the only team that filled the hole this year was Boston and they went considerably younger when adding a 1B. Yankees went all-in on Tex a few years back, Phillies have Howard and his absurd contract, I can't see the Angels going after him since they have Morales who while not on the same level doesn't necessitate a change at that position, Bernie Madoff screwed the Mets, and there's nobody else who has the budget to afford a guy who is clearly the best player in the game right now. The Cubs will have to overspend, but 10 year/$30 million is still a pipe dream for Pujols given the fact nobody outside of the NL Central is going to afford him. One thing working in his favor is the fact that the bidding war, like the ones that have happened between Boston and New York, is in the division. Teams will spend considerably more to keep a player away from a division rival as much as add him or keep him on their team.

The Cardinals have the money to spend and the fan backlash would be enormous if he went to Chicago and ended the curse there. Of course, if Pujols leaves and someone conveniently leaks a BALCO story or he tests positive for PEDs (it's not like his name hasn't been linked over the years, and his stats in this day and age are always going to fall under the questionable category) then the Cardinals can breathe a sigh of relief. Or, you know, if he goes to the Cubs and just gets injured since they are cursed.

Oh, and another reason he won't be a Yankee is because I've got a strange confidence about the incompetence of the Brothers Steinbrenner.

[naiwf]

I've been listening to the Fan today and it seems most Yankees fans are trying to figure out a way to get either Pujols or King Felix onto the team without trading Hughes, Joba, Montero or their killer B prospects. I've actually heard a few guys suggest moving Tex to 3rd and A-Rod to DH. *sigh*

There's also been a lot of lip service paid to Cheeseburger Cheeseburger working so hard to "slim down" to 295. There's nothing slim about being a biscuit shy of three bills.

[sahyder1]

I've been listening to the Fan today and it seems most Yankees fans are trying to figure out a way to get either Pujols or King Felix onto the team without trading Hughes, Joba, Montero or their killer B prospects. I've actually heard a few guys suggest moving Tex to 3rd and A-Rod to DH. *sigh*

There's also been a lot of lip service paid to Cheeseburger Cheeseburger working so hard to "slim down" to 295. There's nothing slim about being a biscuit shy of three bills.

I haven't listened to WFAN in couple of weeks so I don't know if Heyman's been on recently but this tweet from him was hilarious today.

not saying jobas fat, but he looks like he may have swallowed one of the clubhouse kids

Maybe that is where C.C's weight went? "Cheese Burger Cheese Burger" is one of my favorite Steve Somers created nicknames out there.

[SeanDMan]

Do the Nationals need a first basemen?

[HailtotheYo]

^ they've actually mentioned that up here as a "backdoor" team coming and signing him out of nowhere.

[gunnar hendershow]

Orioles will need a first baseman too. No way does he possibly come here though, he'd take less money to go elsewhere I'm sure.

[DMN in the House]

The Dodgers won't sign him. They won't/can't spend money, cuz, you know, divorce.