Survivor: Caramoan **SPOILERS**

[The Quasi Juice]

Forgot to comment on the last episode; it was fuckin' fantastic. Like Cochran said when he voted, this is why I've loved Survivor for so long. Never have we seen such a scramble at tribal council, just amazing stuff. I'll say a few things.

On Rob's podcast Sophie made some interesting points. Whilst she obviously thought the TC was great television, she feels Malcolm should have kept the other idol to himself. Giving the idol to Eddie forced the alliance to vote out one of their own but at the end of the day the Three Amigos still won't have the numbers. So what Malcolm now has done is drag Eddie to the next vote, perhaps granting him a few extra days on the island but unless he goes on an amazing immunity run he goes out with 6 left or so. Now he has kept around one of his biggest immunity opponents in the game in Eddie, lowering his chances at an immunity run.

Another thing that's worth thinking about is; why did Malcolm say they were going to vote for Philip? I think the two best options the Three Amigos had was; 1) not say who they were voting for at all, thus causing complete mayhem and perhaps leading to Andrea being voted out (Philip, Brenda and Dawn clearly were up for it), or 2) pinpointing either Andrea or Cochran as their target because they are clearly in control of the alliance and huge threats to win. Why Philip? To gain sympathy with the other alliance? "Oh wow Malcolm is such a noble guy, he voted out the annoying black guy, let's keep him around!". Malcolm knows Philip isn't actually in control. He's as much a threat in challenges as Andrea and Erik. He's fuckin' annoying so you'll always beat him in the end. As RockPaperScissors mentioned, taking out Philip makes everyone reassess their strategy but meh, I think the bad outway the good on this vote. Taking out Andrea or Cochran would have put a real dent in their alliance.

Reynold has found two idols, has been a beast in challenges, is a nice guy to everyone, yet somehow Eddie has a better shot at winning than him. Reynold has been played so much it's crazy. This episode again he got played because suddenly Malcolm had 2 idols so he must have been loving it but at the same time thinking 'why the fuck did I give my idol away last TC then?". It's hilarious.

How come Brenda has had so few confessionals all season yet she's still in the game doing really well and no reason to think she's gone anytime soon either? So weird. On Rob's podcast Philip said he felt at that point Brenda was perhaps the biggest threat to win because of how nice she was to everyone and good in challenges despite being injured.

[RPS]

Meh. I see where Sophie is coming from, but I think it reeks of over simplifying the game. The reason you blitz at tribal as opposed to prepare before is because, honestly, using it for leverage before isn't going to change anything. They go and say something, Dawn is just going to go back and tell her alliance. They've tried to hatch plans before and it failed because the Stealth alliance isn't going to turn on their own yet. So if Malcolm, Reynold and Eddie did approach people like Erik or Sherry, it would give Stealth time to come up with a counter plan, re: convince them that they are voting with them, when they aren't and try to blindside them with an idol. They were going to have to use their idols regardless. Honestly, people are making it out to be a huge mistake, but had Malcolm told them, tried to make a plan and he ends up getting blindsided... it would be called the dumbest move possible.

Blitzing at tribal is a good plan if there is a bunch of independent players. Phillip managed to stay cool and level-headed and it flushed the two idols out, but he went home. Honestly, he was the right guy to target because Phillip would be the guy to say "ok, let's switch out votes to Sherry" to stick around, but he didn't.

Focusing on Andrea is a terrible move. A) She lost her biggest ally, Phillip and B) she has connections with Eddie. Potential vote going forward for Team Malcolm. Not a guaranteed vote, but a potential one. Voting off Cochran and Dawn doesn't do much, because they'd probably still stick with Phillip and Andrea, because they have zero attachment to Malcolm, Reynold or Eddie and both already seen Phillip as their F3 goat. Taking out Phillip potentially frees up votes from Andrea, maybe Sherry because she was particularly close to Phillip and Erik is playing his loner game all by himself, but no matter who you took out he was a free vote. In addition, Cochran and Dawn, who probably had F3 plans involving Phillip, need to shuffle their plans. The only other scenario where you might free up another vote is taking out Dawn and now Brenda may be a free vote.

[The Quasi Juice]

Telling the SRU alliance beforehand about the plan would have sucked indeed, that would have been plain dumb because like you said they would have come up with a clever plan. I'm still not convinced Philip was the right way to go, nor do I think there's even a small chance Andrea will side with Eddie but time will tell. I can't wait 'till the next episode and hopefully we won't get 3 predictable episodes in a row now.

[Blehschmidt]

Brenda has gotten more air time in the first 20 minutes of this episode than she has all season. I have a bad feeling about this.

[The Quasi Juice]

Yeah I thought Brenda was going home because she suddenly got a lot of air time. It might be because she's going to start playing a much bigger role in the game now or simply because her suffering made a good story. Another good episode even though Malcolm went home Now that Malcolm is gone I'd try and take charge of the game if I was Sherri or Erik. Surely they realize now they are fucked if they go up against Cochran or Andrea.

Andrea is so fucking cute.

Edited April 25, 2013 by The Quasi Juice

[RPS]

Loved the Brenda focus. Was interesting to see her so beat up over Philip going and that she needs to readjust her plans. Gives insight into maybe what she was thinking for F3 (aka, sitting by Phillip). He definitely was the goat of his alliance and I presume everybody was taking him to the end. So interesting to see what everybody's new plans are. I think all that is certain is that Dawn and Cochran plan on bringing each other and Eddie and Reynold are bringing each other. Everything else is yet to be set.

Sherri thinking she runs the show is delusions of grandeur.

Cochran had the right idea here. The whole split votes thing is a bad move when the alliance you are targeting is 1 vote away from screwing up your plans. You basically are stuck between the option of having a 50/50 shot of guessing who has the idol (which nobody did) OR splitting the vote and hoping that somebody doesn't screw up your plans and flip. I'd probably go with 50/50.

Malcolm had a good run. People are saying he played way worse this time around, but it was a different ball game. Philippines was a walk in the park compared to this. He never had the light shun on him because of the circumstance of the game. In Caramoan, he was going out at this point in the game no matter if he made the moves or not. He is physical, charismatic and personable and has a good brain for the strategy who was on the outs with a bunch of misfits. No chance he was going anywhere near the final 3. I have no doubt he'll come back again to play and he'll definitely improve.

[The Quasi Juice]

Apparently double eviction episode tonight lads. You know what that means right?

[DYSI]

Too much Julie Chen.

[Blehschmidt]

That was a fun episode tonight. Really wasn't sure how either vote would turn out. Things should get interesting from here.

Do we have 1 or 2 episodes left before the finale?

[The Quasi Juice]

I had a strong feeling either Eddie or Reynold was going to survive this episode, but most likely Eddie obviously 'cause Reynold would have needed to win both immunities (which I don't think he would have, Erik was a beast in the second one). Does Eddie even try? He used his money in a stupid way at the auction. When they had the opportunity to buy an advantage in the challenge fucking COCHRAN won the bid. Like Eddie didn't even throw 200 or something out there, it was ridiculous. Had he bought the advantage he 100% would have won.This time he was the FIRST to step down for food, what the fuck? Then second challenge he didn't seem in much of a hurry either. You could argue stepping down first challenge was okay because clearly they were gunning for Reynold but it's still a huge risk because what if Reynold wins? Then Eddie is out. He doesn't scramble at camp at all. Reynold would have at least tried to stir the pot a bit. He's lucky his "don't do anything, let others do the thinking" strategy has somewhat worked so far but he's not winning this thing. He might survive another vote or two though. I wonder how he'd do in the final 3 anyway. Cochran seems to think he'd lose to Eddie but I highly doubt it. Eddie is liked but the jury knows he's been a pawn the entire game.

Andrea should have never mentioned Dawn to Cochran, that was her death knell. Cochran seemed to be on board with a Brenda blindside because granted, she's a huge threat. The moment she targeted Dawn he was like heeell naah, that's my girl Just like in Redemption Island Andrea got too ambitious with her plans.

The way Brenda has been edited might go down in Survivor history as the weirdest edit ever. She was a wallflower 2/3rd of the season and now she's getting confessionals left and right, she's being highlighted in challenges, people are targeting her and she's actually talking strategy finally. It leads me to believe she's not winning this game but she'll get damn close. Brenda is as much of a threat as Andrea was, if not more 'cause she's so well liked. Cochran is winning this thing though.

Oh and Sherri is still around by the way.......yeah.....

Edited May 2, 2013 by The Quasi Juice

[RPS]

Dawn is an emotional wreck. Nobody respects her game play. The last few seasons have seen people in similar situations as somebody who is playing both sides continually get burnt at the end. Dawn's in the same boat. Dawn's best move next week is to take out Cochran. She won't and either Cochran, Eddie, or Brenda will win. I think any chance of Sherri, Dawn, or Erik winning the game at this point are slim to none.

Brenda being hyped up as a threat is either legitimate or misdirection because she is going next week. I'd love a Brenda win, but she's been downplayed since day 1. I think she is out next week.

[The Quasi Juice]

Yeah like I said, Brenda's edit has been so strange she's definitely not winning this bitch. Have a feeling next week will be Eddie anyway but I hope not. Why do you think Erik's chances are so low though? Sure he hasn't made big moves but who really visibly has? I'd say he has as much a chance as Eddie to win, if not more. I don't want to count out Dawn either because we see her crying and being a wreck, but most of those emotional outbursts were confessionals. If she plays up the mom card, children back at home bla bla she might get votes.

[RPS]

I'm counting jury votes, really. I'd say that Sherry, Dawn and Erik, through their dealings with Malcolm, Michael and Reynold, have most likely lost their jury votes. Albert and Lisa learned in past seasons - you can't string along people in the game, give them false hope, and not follow through. Erik screwed up their ability to take hold of the game several times. So that's three votes out of 8 down the drain for Erik. And Phillip was not at all fond of Erik either, so that is another jury vote gone for him. Erik just won't be respected by a jury if he makes it to the end. As Malcolm said, Erik's strategy involved asking Andrea to put at a picture of who he was voting out. He won't win. At all.

I think that Eddie, Brenda and Cochran each have a good shot at winning for different reasons. Eddie is playing a Fabio type game, completely clueless, but he is likeable, charismatic and he's got a great story. Like Denise before him, he can really claim to have had his back against the wall the entire season and that he survived. Brenda has been loyal the whole game, has yet to burn anybody, is well spoken and is doing great in challenges. The fact she is planning on taking out Cochran speaks volumes - she knows who the threats are in the game and is lining up her targets. Cochran is playing a really calculated and well-thought out game. He had the ideal final 3 of Phillip/Dawn and now he just has to find his other goat and he'll win.

[GoGo Yubari]

Yeah, next week Brenda's going, because she trusts Dawn. Pretty sure final three is now Dawn, Cochran, Sherri. Cochran will win decisively.

It could be Erik in final three too and it wouldn't change anything. Fascinatingly, both Erik and Brenda seem to be playing fairly quiet games but in post-boot interviews but Corinne are praising Brenda and are totally dismissive of Erik.

[The Quasi Juice]

It would be best for entertainment if Cochran gets voted off next week because right now he looks like the set winner, but I doubt it. Dude has this game on lock.

[GoGo Yubari]

It's an interesting position right now because I think everyone's optimal final three at this point should be them, Erik and Sherri, with Erik's best possible move being taking Dawn and hoping that her instability and the fact that it's because of her that half of the jury is where they are is enough of a hindrance can be seen as less desirable than his very open "the best strategy is no strategy" game (and, of course, if he were able to make a big move at the end that could sway people).

I guess the real problem at F6/F5 now is that Cochran should go, but Brenda and Eddie (through no ability of his own) could also both win depending on circumstances and they're presumable immunity threats, but on the other hand depending on what the challenge is Cochran could win too. I think the probable smart order if you're Dawn or Erik (nothing Sherri does matters) is voting out Brenda first, Eddie second, and hoping that final immunity is endurance because then Cochran will go the way of Rob C./Fairplay. Cochran's position is ridiculously perfect right now, especially because this scenario assumes that Dawn plays with her head and not her heart and that is obviously not a given.

Brenda deserves credit for her game now that it's become clear what it is, though. She and Cochran are the two who really learned big from their season. Cochran makes a lot of smart small moves where last time he made a stupid big move, and Brenda was last time blatant and obvious about strategy and made herself Queen Bee and this time has stayed off to the side and played what appears to be a really good social game without actually needing to make a big move until next week.

[XMS]

Got a question: Has a reward for winning Individual Immunity ever been a clue to the hidden immunity? I figured the "information about the game" was going to be that a second elimination would come up sooner than expected. It seems like the producers were aiming for either Reynold or Eddie to win and then the clue was to keep the other safe during the next Tribal Council.

[RPS]

I don't think they were aiming for Reynold or Eddie to win. There was no chance they were going to win that challenge.

I saw this Secret Scene and thought others would enjoy:

Yikes, Dawn.

[The Quasi Juice]

Aww Andrea <3 But yeah Dawn is crazy, uber paranoid. Does this mean Dawn has the idol?

[RPS]

Nah, I think she gave it back. There is no way they wouldn't include that in the actual episode if Dawn kept the idol. It was before the tribal with Reynold that Dawn was loaned the idol.

I never really liked Dawn the first time she played and watching her a second time, I like her even less. In a lot of ways, I think she is a lot like Coach or Lisa W. They are intelligent people who can put the individual pieces of the game together - the social bit, the strategy bit, the survival bit. But they just have personality quirks that make it very difficult for them to win - Coach has no self awareness, Lisa W. was far too concerned with how she was going to be perceived by the public and Dawn is just too insecure. The flaw of each of them was that they had an ally that pulled the same moves, but who don't have those negative traits. Sophie was completely aware of everything going on, Denise couldn't give two shits about how America was going to perceive her and Cochran. this season, is the furthest thing from insecure.