2011 NCAA College Basketball Season

[phatman]

Yeah i'd put Texas in over mississipi st. ... I also think that UNC will beat Duke and get the auto bid out of the ACC...

[gunnar hendershow]

Well by those numbers then Cincinnati should be the team left out in the dark. But I picked Miss St over Texas because I kinda have missed their collapse the past 2 weeks. Texas should take that spot. Seriously, until the past few days you'd have been crazy to say the Bulldogs weren't going dancing but they've lost 5 in a row and are quickly putting themselves on the outside looking in.

[JStarr]

So if all those teams above were in, that would give 64. But, there's still some multi-bid mid-majors.

West Coast has to get Gonzaga in, and BYU is a solid bet as well.

VCU could make a case from the Colonial.

Conference USA could get Southern Miss in.

Missouri Valley definitely has Creighton in.

Colorado State's record isn't sexy, but their RPI and SOS numbers are strong. If they get in, the committee can never use the "RPI is only one of our tools" excuse, because that team has very little else going for it. 6-8 against the Top 100, 2-5 against the Top 50 with UNLV tomorrow night. Bad losses at Boise State and Stanford.

Think I'd rather see South Dakota State get in from the Summit than some team like UConn. They've been back and forth with Oral Roberts all season, but they've just got too many ugly losses. Three outside the Top 100, and two to North and South Dakota, who are both in the 270-290 range. Not helpful. Oral Roberts may have a better at-large chance, but even then, it's not promising.

If those top 5 get in and UConn gets left aside, that's a full 68. Like damshow said, there's just kind of a blah bubble this year. Teams I'd like to see in, like Miami and Northwestern and Xavier, are probably the most likely to get left out.

[Blitz]

#1 seeds? Kentucky, Kansas, Duke or UNC, Syracuse?

[JStarr]

#1 seeds? Kentucky, Kansas, Duke or UNC, Syracuse?

If Michigan State had beaten Indiana tonight, they'd have the one earmarked for Duke/UNC. Since they didn't, their failure.

Missouri could steal one if they win the Big 12 tourney.

[gunnar hendershow]

Feel like I went over this earlier, but yeah Mizzou still has an outside shot as does Marquette. If Missouri wins the Big 12 tournament then they get Kansas' spot. If Marquette wins the Big East tournament and there's a big upset winner in either the both the Big Ten and either the Big 12 or ACC they might squeak in. Kentucky and Syracuse are locks.

[Blitz]

Well Marquette just lost their shot at a #1 seed.

ESPN Insider has the current number ones as Kentucky, Michigan State, Syracuse and Kansas.

2 seeds are North Carolina, Missouri, Duke and Ohio State.

3 seeds are Baylor, Georgetown, Michigan and Marquette.

4 seeds are Louisville, Florida, Indiana, Wisconsin.

[gunnar hendershow]

Marquette dropped to a 3 or 4 depending on their performance in the conference tournament (2 is a longshot without winning the whole thing). Cincy likely just punched a ticket to a play-in game, or whatever they're called now.

Lunardi is usually pretty right about the actual teams but always has the low seeds screwed up, but that's so arbitrary I'm convinced the selection committee picks numbers out of a hat for 15 teams every year.

[JStarr]

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[Blitz]

Witcha State just lost, meaning there will be two teams from the MVC in the tourney.

[Meacon Keaton]

Duke's so pathetically soft on the inside. All they can do is shoot three's. You'd think a traditional powerhouse would have someone better underneath than the sissy ass Plumlee brothers.

[Meacon Keaton]

There's nothing more pleasing than all the preppy Duke turds going silent.

[JStarr]

Witcha State just lost, meaning there will be two teams from the MVC in the tourney.

Creighton getting left out anyway would be a bit of a travishamockery. If Creighton had lost to Evansville (which would have made my wife's day, since UE is her alma mater), they'd be looking at three bids and some bubble team would be hanging themselves.

[gunnar hendershow]

Yeah Creighton belongs in the tournament anyway. Wichita State dropped to a 6 or 7 seed maybe with this loss. Depends, of course, on what happens in the major conference tournaments. If Illinois State beats Creighton then that means they get 3 teams, so a lot of those last four in teams like Texas, Mississippi State, and Northwestern will be watching that conference final intently. Had it been Wichita State vs Creighton the game would have had barely any tournament ramifications except maybe moving a team up or down a seed.

UNC crushing Duke was nice to see, especially on senior day at Cameron. They definitely have a weak inside, but in college I've never thought having size in the middle was necessary to win the title. Were they to play best of 5 or best 7 series then it absolutely would matter, but in a one-and-done playoff with so many different styles of play it has as good a chance to be an Achilles heel for Duke as it has a chance to not even be talked about during the tournament.

[JStarr]

UNC crushing Duke was nice to see, especially on senior day at Cameron. They definitely have a weak inside, but in college I've never thought having size in the middle was necessary to win the title. Were they to play best of 5 or best 7 series then it absolutely would matter, but in a one-and-done playoff with so many different styles of play it has as good a chance to be an Achilles heel for Duke as it has a chance to not even be talked about during the tournament.

There were a couple of years at the start of the 2000's where centers certainly were optional.

Michigan State had Morris Peterson as their second-leading rebounder in 2000. Andre Hutson and A.J. Granger were their main big men.

Syracuse in '03 had Hakim Warrick as the only option down low, but Melo was so All-Everything that it didn't matter.

We could say that UNC in '09 didn't have a "true center," because Ed Davis and Tyler Hansbrough were their options. Still, who was stopping those two inside?

Other than those, the rest of the NCAA champions had Carlos Boozer, Chris Wilcox/Lonny Baxter, Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Joakim Noah/Al Horford, Cole Aldrich/Darrell Arthur, Brian Zoubek (certainly had size, if not much else), and Alex Oriakhi.

The Plumlees can handle most of the big guys they're going to see in the first couple of rounds, although if Lunardi's current projection is right and they face Iowa State in the second round, Royce White could go nuts.

If they get to the Sweet 16 and run into a Baylor (big if that they make it that far right now) or Ohio State, or even a Missouri with dynamic guards who can penetrate, it's a shaky matchup for sure.

[Blitz]

Awesome game between U-Conn and West Virginia. Too bad whoever wins is gonna get killed by Syracuse.

[Damian WayLNKe]

Well, WVU didn't get any favors from the refs at the end there.

[Blitz]

What are the chances U-Conn can win the game against Syracuse tomorrow? If they can win a fourteenth straight, I'm picking them to win the Big East tourney again.

[The Buscher]

UConn very nearly beat Syracuse a week and a half ago. I'd be surprised if it's not a close game.

[gunnar hendershow]

UCONN doesn't put forth any effort until March. I wouldn't be surprised if they won.