2011 MLB Season

[9 to 5]

Ken Griffey managed all that despite his grotesquey swollen jaw?

[Maxx]

It's like a party in my mouth, and everyone's invited!

[Ananas]

Brett Lawrie makes his Rogers Centre debut tonight. When you look at everyone at the top of the depth chart in Toronto right now with the exception of Hill who I'd say is more or less done in Toronto and Bautista who's obviously at his peak, this team is just pure upside right now. A lot of fun to watch, and we might even see Henderson Alvarez start Friday. This team has the feel of the 2007 Rays - just waiting to break out. And on top of all that they've been a decent team this year that might be in a bit of a playoff hunt if they had anything resembling a competent back end in the bullpen.

EDIT: Henderson Alvarez has been called up to start tomorrow. Dude has been clocked as high as 101mph in AA, and has had an all-star caliber season in the Eastern League. This is going to be a fun week.

[sahyder1]

Alvarez starting for the Jays tonight and Garrett Richards is starting for my Angels against the Yankees tonight. He was 12-2 with a 3 ERA in AA.

This Jose Bautista/Blue Jays sign stealing is getting a ridiculous. I guess since trying to tie him to PEDs didn't work for the baseball media now they will try this? A team stealing signals from 2B is one thing but I honestly don't buy that a guy from CF could relay signs that quickly to a hitter.

[Trey]

Did you see the numbers though? It really does look like something is going on there and if someone can get signals from second base then they can watch for a guy to either raise his arms or not. All the guy has to do is be on the phone with someone else with binoculars and raise his arms or not as soon as the sign comes in.

[sahyder1]

Did you see the numbers though? It really does look like something is going on there and if someone can get signals from second base then they can watch for a guy to either raise his arms or not. All the guy has to do is be on the phone with someone else with binoculars and raise his arms or not as soon as the sign comes in.

I haven't had the chance to take an in depth look at the home/away splits for all the Jays as of yet. All things being equal don't most guys hit better at home just being used to the batters eye more? I would assume they do. Plus their home/away records were pretty close last and are the same way this year. I'll have to look at it some more.

Edited August 10, 2011 by sahyder1

[Trey]

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/6837424/baseball-toronto-blue-jays-suspicion-again-stealing-signs-rogers-centre

If you don't have the time to read it, scroll down to the bolded headline Homer Haven and go from there. It shows that the Blue Jays splits are pretty big and while the Blue Jays enjoy a massive boost in home runs playing at their park (much like hitters have an advantage at Coors) their opponents don't get the same boost.

[gunnar hendershow]

Isn't there a similar factor at Fenway? Though that is more because they get hitters whose tendencies are built for the place.

[Ananas]

http://espn.go.com/e...s-rogers-centre

If you don't have the time to read it, scroll down to the bolded headline Homer Haven and go from there. It shows that the Blue Jays splits are pretty big and while the Blue Jays enjoy a massive boost in home runs playing at their park (much like hitters have an advantage at Coors) their opponents don't get the same boost.

See the thing is, when you cherry pick a few stats that make your argument for you and leave out all those that refute it you can make what looks like a pretty convincing case. But then in the world of baseball statistical analysis someone like Tom Tango comes along who realises why you're wrong and can refute it quite easily. Then you're left with 4 random relievers from the Chicago White Sox who lacked the balls to actually go on record or file a complaint with the MLB.

[Trey]

Of course you can always find stats to back up your arguments, but I'm guessing that the OPS against other teams is probably the easiest to discredit since the Jays had the fifth worst on-base percentage. The stat from the ESPN article that I like the most is quoted below, but it's also the one that makes me think there's some truth to it because if you're sitting fastball, I'd guess you're going to swing for the fences.

Now, by themselves, the above splits aren't conclusive, so to measure the effect of Rogers Centre more precisely, The Mag consulted with Wyers. He has developed a method that generates park factors by comparing a player's performance in any given park with his performance in all other parks, not just in road games for that player. This reduces statistical noise and offers a better estimate of how a park actually plays in a given season. Wyers found that for every ball that batters made contact with in 2010, Rogers added .011 home runs, up from a rate of just .002 from 2005 to 2009. That puts Rogers Centre in 2010 among the top 3 percent of home run ballparks since 1950.

But only the Blue Jays, and not their opponents, got a home run boost in Toronto. When the Jays were on the road in 2010, they hit home runs in 4 percent of plate appearances in which they made contact, compared with an AL average of 3.6 percent. At Rogers, their home run on contact rate soared to 5.4 percent, which is a home-field advantage seven times the magnitude teams typically enjoy.

Opposing batters, however, actually homered on contact at a below-average rate in Toronto. As a result, the power differential between home and visiting hitters at Rogers in 2010 was the third largest of any park in any season over the past 60 years (see chart).

[SeanDMan]

So basically Toronto can't do shit except hit homers.

[Ananas]

Of course you can always find stats to back up your arguments, but I'm guessing that the OPS against other teams is probably the easiest to discredit since the Jays had the fifth worst on-base percentage. The stat from the ESPN article that I like the most is quoted below, but it's also the one that makes me think there's some truth to it because if you're sitting fastball, I'd guess you're going to swing for the fences.

Now, by themselves, the above splits aren't conclusive, so to measure the effect of Rogers Centre more precisely, The Mag consulted with Wyers. He has developed a method that generates park factors by comparing a player's performance in any given park with his performance in all other parks, not just in road games for that player. This reduces statistical noise and offers a better estimate of how a park actually plays in a given season. Wyers found that for every ball that batters made contact with in 2010, Rogers added .011 home runs, up from a rate of just .002 from 2005 to 2009. That puts Rogers Centre in 2010 among the top 3 percent of home run ballparks since 1950.

But only the Blue Jays, and not their opponents, got a home run boost in Toronto. When the Jays were on the road in 2010, they hit home runs in 4 percent of plate appearances in which they made contact, compared with an AL average of 3.6 percent. At Rogers, their home run on contact rate soared to 5.4 percent, which is a home-field advantage seven times the magnitude teams typically enjoy.

Opposing batters, however, actually homered on contact at a below-average rate in Toronto. As a result, the power differential between home and visiting hitters at Rogers in 2010 was the third largest of any park in any season over the past 60 years (see chart).

You may like this quote, but it's ignorant on multiple levels. For one if you're stealing signs so you know what's coming, it should also affect your walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average on balls in play and on base percentage. Last season their strikeout rate home/away - 18.6/19.7, walk rate - 7.8/7.7, BABIP - .265/.274, OBP - .315/.309. So basically all you have on peripherals is a slight uptick on OBP based on more balls leaving the park. Are you seriously going to argue that a team that knows what's coming is still going to chase the same bad pitches, strike out slightly more and walk basically the same? And that when they make contact they'll presumably hit less line drives because they had a worse BABIP? Here's the kicker though - the team was ludicrously RH heavy last year and the Rogers Centre plays as a RH power hitter's paradise. So maybe, just maybe, the increase has to do with the fact that the team was tailor made for the park? And as for the opposition not going deep as much, could it have something to do with the extreme ground ball innings coming from GB pitchers like Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Shaun Marcum, meanwhile the Jays hit FBs at a much higher rate than any other team in the game? But no, let's stick with the simplistic cherry picked argument that serves as the new knock on Jose Bautista's MVP candidacy since the steroid allegations made almost as little sense. This article is exactly what's wrong with ESPN. Anyone can do highlight packages, so they have to become the story to generate attention.

EDIT: Just another number I found that makes this more of a stretch - at the Rogers Centre last year the Jays had extra base hits on 7.8 percent of balls put in play. On the road it went up to 8.4 percent. So essentially outside of the home runs which again, are part of the park factors, the Jays made WORSE contact.

[Meacon Keaton]

Not that I believe the Jays are stealing signs, but it could be possible to just steal and relay signals for fastballs. Hence the increase in home runs and not walks and what not. Obviously you'd probably see an increase in batting average, too. But if you have someone like Bautista just know a fastball is coming and have him sitting on it, he'll destroy it.

Like I said. I don't think they're stealing, but that could be why their walk ratio isn't altered too much. As for the even strikeout ratio, well, even if you know it's coming, sometimes you just can't catch up to a 92-97 mph fastball.

[Ananas]

Not that I believe the Jays are stealing signs, but it could be possible to just steal and relay signals for fastballs. Hence the increase in home runs and not walks and what not. Obviously you'd probably see an increase in batting average, too. But if you have someone like Bautista just know a fastball is coming and have him sitting on it, he'll destroy it.

Like I said. I don't think they're stealing, but that could be why their walk ratio isn't altered too much. As for the even strikeout ratio, well, even if you know it's coming, sometimes you just can't catch up to a 92-97 mph fastball.

Sometimes you can't, absolutely. Baseball's a game of failure. But for it to actually lead to a higher K%? And weaker contact outside of fly balls that got out of the park? Come on now. This article manufactures its own insulated bubble. And to be fair, the article specifically said that they had a sign for a breaking ball, a sign for a fastball. So if they knew a fastball was coming, they'd be able to judge ball/strike based on where it starts out. Ditto for the breaking pitch.

[Meacon Keaton]

I didn't even read the article, because I think the claim is bogus.

If the Jays were stealing signs, they either did it rarely or they sucked at it. There should be a much bigger difference in the strikeout and OBP ratios, at least.

[gunnar hendershow]

Furthermore if you were an opposing team wouldn't you regularly be mixing up your signs if you at least suspected the Jays were stealing signs?

[Toe]

If other teams truly believed this, they would have brought the issue to MLB.

[naiwf]

Carlos Zambrano appears to have retired after getting tossed from tonight's game. I feel for Cubs fans on this one.

[Ananas]

Carlos Zambrano appears to have retired after getting tossed from tonight's game. I feel for Cubs fans on this one.

I dunno, I think having that contract off the book might not be such a bad thing. Especially if they're trying to be players in the Pujols sweepstakes.

[naiwf]

I know it's probably not going to happen, but I think it would be hilarious if a previously .173 hitting Dan Uggla broke Joe D's hitting streak.