Survivor: Cagayan (Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty) **SPOILERS**

[GoGo Yubari]

Yeah, the jury has to be silent until final tribal council, when they get to ask the final three questions.

[Pleatherface]

which often times are "My question is you suck."

[DYSI]

Oh man this season has been crazy. I think people are doing blindsides just to say that they did a blindside, not thinking how it'll play out with the bitter jurors in the end. I mean, how does Tony benefit from flipping over and getting rid of LJ and losing Jefra, Kass, Trish, and now presumably LJ and the cop chick's votes now that she doesn't know what to believe after he lied about this job... again. Woo still has a good chance to win and I hope he gets a good run and stays far away from Tony and his overthinking of the game.

[Your Mom]

which often times are "My question is you suck."

I remember the one lady who hoped the guy got devoured by buzzards or something like that.

[Pleatherface]

Cop Lady was going to destroy Tony either way, she clearly invests a lot of emotion and faith into her identity as a cop, and expects others to do the same. Tony swore to her on his badge, and then behaved in a way that made her feel like it was bullshit. I don't think she was going to forgive that.

Tony is thinking of Post Russell Hantz Survivor. He's playing to his immediate threats and at the moment paranoia. He knows the game to a degree, and knows how to be charming and likeable, and can manipulate with the best of them, but he doesn't understand the benefit of being patient and keeping a cool head, as shown by his confrontation of Spencer and Jeremiah. Demanding essentially that they say they're sorry for voting him.

But in fairness to Tony, his end game final 3 wouldn't include LJ or Woo, I mean who would volunteer to sit next to either of them?

He had to cut LJ loose sooner or later, and while a lot of people like to say that you don't flip this early! What they're really saying, is you should wait until you don't have the opportunity to flip, unless it directly benefits me to allow you to do so.

His best bet now is pulling in Trish and Kass as his final 3. Because Trish gets maybe two votes, without clear spite, Kass gets none.

He's kept Woo close, and made him think that taking out LJ was a move that saved his ass, when it comes time to burn him, Tony wont be the only one to bare the responsibility, because he'll be a threat, and Woo is a laid back dude that can probably appreciate that.

Technically he played it correctly, and still has the numbers on paper if you don't account for Chaos Kass and idol shenanigans.

His biggest obvious mistake is giving Spencer time, but if he waited he may not have had the chance to split the votes.

Edited April 19, 2014 by Pleatherface

[Alex.]

I thought Tony orchestrated the blindside beautifully. As someone who is going for Spencer, I loved it. Watching that core six explode was great. I cannot stand Kass, if anyone turned too early in this game, it was her.

[Pleatherface]

I love that Spencer only gets to be the bad guy he came into this game wanting to be, in his votes and confessionals.

Tony needing to let the audience and everyone playing know that he wasn't really scared that his name was going on to come up, and I KNEW you guys were going to suck, and oh this idol I was about to play, is a total fake, lawl, just makes my head hurt with it's transparency.

[Alex.]

sad to see now spencers alliance may go down one by one.

woo for the win i guess

[Your Mom]

Depressing turn of events. I will hate it if Tony wins. I think Woo would be the only one I wouldn't hate and I still don't like his so much over the whole stealing the clue and throwing Spencer's pants in the river thing

[XMS]

This. fucking. season, though.

[GoGo Yubari]

Oh nooooooo. Poor Jefra. This is so sad for her.

[Your Mom]

Still rooting for Spencer but Tony having like ALL the idols doesn't make that look good. I don't feel bad for Jefra really. Like Spencer said she had her chance but didn't want to go for it

[Pleatherface]

The sad bit is, her mom continues the Hantz tradition of playing the game better than someone actually playing the game.

[RPS]

This is an interesting final 6. Usually I've narrowed it down to 2, maybe 3 people who could win. At this point, anybody but can Kass could theoretically pull this off. The three tribe dynamic and erratic game play of Tony has really made it tough to predict. I'd probably say my order of most to least likely to win (given their position, game play and edit) would be Tasha, followed closely by Trish. From there, I'd say Woo and Spencer are on equal levels. Tony has a distant chance to win the game. And Kass has no hope. I think Tasha and Trish have pretty good odds of winning because they are savvy socially, there are bigger threats looming and their edit has been good. Their best case scenario is a spot with Tony/Kass in a final three. Woo and Spencer have large targets on their back and any smart player is going to take them out at 6 and 5. Both would have strong claims to winning the game, but I don't think they'll make it to the end. Tony is in a tough spot, but I think if he goes with Kass and Woo, he's got a shot.

My prediction is Woo out next, Spencer out after, Tony goes when he's got no idols, and we get a Kass/Trish/Tasha final 3. I've heard rumors of a final 2 - if Tasha wins final immunity, she wins. If she doesn't, Kass and Trish take each other and Trish wins.

[Pleatherface]

Bigger threats than Tash? I don't think so. She can beat anyone standing in the game. She doesn't need an idealized final three, because she's a top tier player and only Spencer really has any shot of shutting down her argument and taking credit for her moves.

If someone on that Island believes for a second there's a bigger threat than Tash? they're dumb.

If I'm Tony and Tash isn't out by 6? I'm carrying Woo to 4 on a stretcher just on the off chance there's a martial arts challenge and he can beat her.

Woo is a nice enough guy, but everybody Tony blind sided? He couldn't have touched without Woo. Tony can weaponize that, and Woo can't. He wins or does well in front of a FTC only due to personal animosity.

Tony even has a shot with Spencer if all hell breaks loose, and it comes down to a final four where he or tash has to go.

Because Tony can quite honestly argue that Spencer tried to play my game, and failed. I played around him, and he was a pawn. He's only here, because everyone else was a bigger threat.

Which is an argument that I can't imagine Spencer seeing coming, or dealing with gracefully.

Of course that situation wont happen if anyone's smart..

But Tash should be gone the second she doesn't win immunity.

[Blehschmidt]

I don't really have anything important to add, but please god not Trish......

[RPS]

I completely agree that Tasha is a bigger threat than Spencer. But there is a tendency to view male counterparts of alliances as the bigger threat in the alliance. Happened to Denise in Phillpines, Sophie in South Pacific, Natalie in Samoa, etc. I think Spencer would likely lose to Tasha, but I don't necessarily know if the people playing the game (mainly, Tony) would agree with that.

[Alex.]

My dislike for Kass is so high - she really will have zero votes and for that she will make it to the end. Woo really disappointed me. I think Tony will win as long as Spencer is not sitting next to him at the final tribal council.

[Your Mom]

Cowardly move by Woo and Kass. You had a chance guys

[Pleatherface]

Kass explained her move rather well in her confessionals, and really summed up her entire game.

She wants to be the one that decides how things go. She wants to have the big moves and play the exciting game.

She's a fringe at best member of the alliance, but she's the one that blows up because Tony turns on Jefra? Nonsense. It's jealousy. The same reason she originally flipped.

She didn't feel special.

Tonight was the only chance to send Tony home before final 4, and that shot rested solely on getting him to play his after the votes idol and burn the other one to save trish and send someone home.

Either way it was a busted plan, because Tony was more than willing to hang onto his idol and let Trish dangle if they had split the votes.

Tony makes final four now, and probably wins. There's no way around it unless someone hits him with a rock.