2017 MLB Thread

[The Buscher]

The Twins are such a great story.  I don't like their chances in the WC game given that the Yankees just smacked them around the other week, but to go from losing 103 games to getting a postseason spot in one year is pretty remarkable.

Fangraphs had them at a 4.8% chance to make the playoffs before the start of the season.  The Brewers are the only team still in the hunt with worse preseason odds (1.1%).  You also had the Rockies at 9.6%, D-Backs at 9.7%, and Yankees at 14.1%.

Conversely, the Blue Jays started at 54.3%, the Mets at 58.2%, and the biggest of disappointments, the Giants at 64.2%.

It just goes to show that you just never know with a baseball season.

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

Only race left is Brewers and Rockies. Could be a fun weekend. The Rockies are up against the Dodgers, which will be tough, while the Brewers have the Cardinals, who could easily play spoiler. 

[Lowerdeck]

22 hours ago, Meacon said:

Our pay roll is $223 million. Yours is $222 million. 'Bout that gap...

I thought we were only around 195M.  But that doesn't take into account the albatross contracts of Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo.

[Meacon Keaton]

Of our $223 million, $21 million is money we're paying to A-Rod, $5.5 million to Brian McCann (in Houston), and $4.5 million to awful Tyler Clippard. So if you take that into account we're at $192 million. 

You all are still paying $17 million to Pablo Sandoval (ouch), $3 million to sixteen year old Daniel Flores, about $1 million each to Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and some other guys here or there. 

But if you take away all the retained contracts, and you consider just the 25-man and the disabled list contracts, it's Dodgers at $202 million, Yankees at $175 million, and Red Sox at $166 million. 

Meanwhile the Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla over $1 million a year and Brett Saberhagen $250,000 a year (I didn't even know about that one until I looked it up  ) 

[The Buscher]

Yeah, Bonilla is the contract deferral that gets brought up the most but there are loads of them around baseball.

I don't even think Bonilla's is the worst of the lot.  The Braves are still paying Bruce Sutter who last played for them in 1988.

[Meacon Keaton]

Saberhagen is such a random one though. He pitched for you guys for like three years. The hell was the point of deferring his contract?

[The Buscher]

I'd have to imagine it was something where Saberhagen requested it himself.  I give props to these dudes in the 80s and 90s thinking ahead to their post-playing days.

[The Buscher]

Matt Harvey finishes up the year with a 6.70 ERA, the worst single-season ERA in team history for anybody who made at least 15 starts.  I think the thoracic outlet syndrome has completely derailed his career.

I really don't know why the Mets would even bother bringing him back for his final year of team control.  Because the arbitration process is how it is, everyone gets a raise no matter how poorly they perform - so they're likely gonna have to pay him $7 million or so, which is a steep price for a dude who hasn't shown that he can pitch anymore.  Personally I'd just non-tender him and let him play somewhere else for league minimum.  Failing that, I'd put him in the bullpen to see if he can get a second wind in his career that way.

In any event the Mets definitely need to sign a veteran starter this winter, even if it's a pretty weak market.  I actually love the idea of bringing in a guy like Sabathia but if a moderately priced one year deal is all it takes, I can't imagine he wouldn't just stick with the Yankees.

[JPanare89]

6 hours ago, Buschy Heenan said:

Matt Harvey finishes up the year with a 6.70 ERA, the worst single-season ERA in team history for anybody who made at least 15 starts.  I think the thoracic outlet syndrome has completely derailed his career.

I really don't know why the Mets would even bother bringing him back for his final year of team control.  Because the arbitration process is how it is, everyone gets a raise no matter how poorly they perform - so they're likely gonna have to pay him $7 million or so, which is a steep price for a dude who hasn't shown that he can pitch anymore.  Personally I'd just non-tender him and let him play somewhere else for league minimum.  Failing that, I'd put him in the bullpen to see if he can get a second wind in his career that way.

In any event the Mets definitely need to sign a veteran starter this winter, even if it's a pretty weak market.  I actually love the idea of bringing in a guy like Sabathia but if a moderately priced one year deal is all it takes, I can't imagine he wouldn't just stick with the Yankees.

I think you got to give him his arbitration money and hope for the best because that could lead to two potential positive things:  Harvey has a bounce back year in his final year of his contract...which could either help the Mets in a playoff push or return assets in a trade.

The Mets were devastated by injuries, but the team is not that far off.  A core of Cespedes, Conforto, Rosario...with a rotation that beings with Syndegaard and DeGrom...there is no reason to give up on next season as well.  Not doom and gloom.

[The Buscher]

12 hours ago, JPanare89 said:

The Mets were devastated by injuries, but the team is not that far off.  A core of Cespedes, Conforto, Rosario...with a rotation that beings with Syndegaard and DeGrom...there is no reason to give up on next season as well.  Not doom and gloom.

Unless the Nats get a Mets-esque number of injuries, I can't see any scenario where the Mets can take them down next year.  I really can't.  Last year the Mets had basically the same roster and nowhere near as many injuries and they still got smoked by the Nats, only making the Wild Card thanks to a ridiculous September.  Both rosters will be nearly identical next year too, and I don't see how the Mets are suddenly gonna turn into a nearly 100 win club like the Nats are.  Even this year I expected maybe 90 wins, which as it turns out wouldn't have been anywhere close to enough to threaten Washington.

I'll concede that a Mets team that stays fully healthy can stay in the Wild Card hunt and make it interesting - which is a far, FAR better situation than this year where they felt dead by May.  But even the team staying healthy is a massive if on its own given the fairly ridiculous amount of key players they've lost annually since 2009.  And yet they're doing nothing at all to change the medical or conditioning staffs, content to think the injuries are all a fluke (again).

But expecting to compete with the Nats next year would be delusional.  The best thing that could happen would be Harper and Murphy leaving after next year.  Harper I think there's a good chance he'll take his talents elsewhere.  Murph however will probably sign a lucrative contract to stay in DC and torment the Mets the remainder of his career.

As for Harvey, I've made my feelings on him pretty clear the past few years.  He's never really struck me as anything more than a selfish player who bought into his own hype based on one really great season (2013).  It's been wall to wall drama with him since then.  I was willing to ignore his off-the-field shit when he was pitching well, but he was terrible last year and just had one of the worst seasons in team history this year.  I've seen nothing to think he's ever going to be an effective starting pitcher again.  If he's back next year, it should be as a reliever and frankly, Harvey would be well served to embrace that role because it could be the only way to salvage his career.

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

Should be a pretty tame day tomorrow. Everything is set.

Yankees will host the Twins, Diamondbacks will host the Rockies. Winners will face Cleveland and the Dodgers, respectively, with Red Sox/Astros and Cubs/Nats as the other match-ups.

Looking forward to the playoffs, but the last week hasn't been as exciting as I was hoping. 

My Predictions

Yanks over Twins.
Diamondbacks over Rockies.

Cleveland over Yankees.
Astros over Red Sox.
Nats over Cubs.
Dodgers over Dbacks.

Cleveland over Astros.
Dodgers over Nationals.

Dodgers over Cleveland. 

[GhostMachine]

My predictions:

Yankees over Twins (unfortunately)

Diamondbacks over Rockies

Indians over Yankees (fortunately!)

Red Sox over Astros

Nationals over Cubs

Dodgers over Diamondbacks

Indians over Red Sox (unfortunately)

Dodgers over Nationals

Dodgers over Indians

 

[Lowerdeck]

Yanks over Twins

D'Backs over Rockies

 

Indians over Yanks
Astros over Red Sox

 

Dodgers over D'Backs

Cubs over Nats

Astros over Indians

Cubs over Dodgers

 

Astros over Cubs

[JPanare89]

Here are my predictions...

 

Twins over Yankees

Diamondbacks over Rockies

 

Twins over Indians

Red Sox over Astros

Diamondbacks over Dodgers

Cubs over Nationals

 

Red Sox over Twins

Diamondbacks over Cubs

 

Red Sox over Diamondbacks

 

-My logic is two-fold...playoff baseball requires no logic in your prediction, as there is no rhyme or reason why any team seemingly wins.  Additionally, Boston wins every championship nowadays so why not another one here (and as a Yankee fan maybe this will jinx them)?  I actually can win a decent amount of money if the Sox win because every year before the season I take the odds and put 50 bucks on the Red Sox to win the World Series and the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.  That way my misery is rewarded.  Granted, that being said, I'd rather give up all the money I will win if the Red Sox win the World Series just to watch them lose.

 

 

[gunnar hendershow]

The final weekend had its batch of fun with Romine playing all 9 positions, including coming into the game as a pitcher in a save situation which has never happened in the AL before or something like that (a position player begins pitching in a save situation). 

Pablo Sandoval had a walk-off today that played the Giants out of the top pick in the draft. So the Tigers pick first.

And of possible enormous significance, Scherzer got hurt on Saturday with a hamstring strain.

Anyway, predictions!

AL

Yankees over Twins

Indians over Yankees

Astros over Red Sox

Indians over Astros

NL

D'Backs over Rockies

D'Backs over Dodgers

Nationals over Cubs

Nationals over D'Backs

World Series

Indians over Nationals

[Meacon Keaton]

I'm actually quite nervous for tomorrow. I know we're a better team than the Twins, but in a one-game series, none of that matters. One mistake can end your season. Stupid, bullshit two wildcard system.

[The Buscher]

I've seen a Little League type idea proposed where the Wild Card round could possibly be two games.  The home team just needs to win one game to advance while the road team would need to win two.  I kinda love that idea.  Adds real incentive to want to get the top seed, doesn't totally screw over the team with the better record, and scheduling isn't the logistical nightmare that a three game series would be.

[Meacon Keaton]

Just had a dream that I woke up and we were losing 7-1.  This one game playoff is doing me in.

[The Buscher]

Yankees over Twins
Diamondbacks over Rockies

Dodgers over Diamondbacks
Nationals over Cubs
Yankees over Indians
Red Sox over Astros

Nationals over Dodgers
Yankees over Red Sox

Nationals over Yankees
(MVP:  Daniel Murphy)

God hates the Mets

[gunnar hendershow]

19 hours ago, Buschy Heenan said:

I've seen a Little League type idea proposed where the Wild Card round could possibly be two games.  The home team just needs to win one game to advance while the road team would need to win two.  I kinda love that idea.  Adds real incentive to want to get the top seed, doesn't totally screw over the team with the better record, and scheduling isn't the logistical nightmare that a three game series would be.

They can make a three game series work, but there'd be no rest day after game 3. I don't particularly have a problem with that from a competitive standpoint, but I'm sure the players wouldn't be overly enthused at the idea. It also precludes the ability to have game 163s should they be necessary, unless everything gets squeezed together with game 163 on Monday, wild card Tues-Thurs, Divisional Round Fri-Wed, LCS Fri-Sat, WS Mon-Tues.