Major League Baseball 2010

[Ananas]

You notice something there ? To illustrate your point about hitting you used OBP. Hitting is merely the ability to hit the ball safely. Boggs was ridiculously better at that than McGwire as illustrated by hits and batting average over the course of their careers. The ability to hit the ball and the ability to work the count and draw walks aren't the same. Hell, 150 of McGwire's walks were IBB. Take those out and his OPB drops to .374 ... which is a rather large drop off from Boggs' .415 ... but still that isn't hitting but much more than that.

...

That is exactly my point. Boggs is a better hitter, but McGwire's abilities lend him to be better suited to actually getting runs across the plate despite not hitting as well as Boggs. So ....

...

... then wouldn't the "ability to drive in runs" exist to a certain degree ?

On your first point, I'm not sure what you call the entire package of plate performance if it's not value as a hitter. With nobody on, a walk is 100% of the value of a single. With a runner on first, the value is almost identical. With runners in scoring position and no force play, with constitutes an overwhelming minority of any batter's plate appearances, there is a definite increase in value between a single and a walk, but again this constitutes a minority of plate appearances. I think any measure at all which fails to account for walks is a flawed one. Mark McGwire's career walk rate (excluding IBBs) is %17.2. Wade Boggs' is %13.1. To exclude walks in the discussion is to unfairly discount more than a quarter of the bases McGwire was able to obtain at the plate. That's a significant amount of value being discounted, and if its not considered value as a hitter I'd like to know what it is. By the way, Mark McGwire's IBB rate is roughly 2%. Boggs' is 1.8%. You can't discount McGwire's 150 IBBs without discounting Boggs' 180 IBBs.

On your second point, I think we're defining the same thing two different ways. I'm not trying to suggest that different players aren't better at driving in runs as an extension of their ability to hit for power. I'm saying that the ability to drive in runs given the opportunity and a high RBI count are not mutually exclusive. They're not - one is an extension of a skill set while the other is the confluence of skill and opportunity. I don't feel that a sabermetric perspective requires a complete ignorance to the idea that two players with equal overall offensive value can have varying ability to drive in runs. Baseball requires an assortment of skill sets. It's just that if you're trying to measure the skill set specially suited to driving in runs, which I think we've agreed is power, trying to gauge much with RBIs is wanting because of its assumption of equal opportunity.

[HailtotheYo]

On your first point, I'm not sure what you call the entire package of plate performance if it's not value as a hitter. With nobody on, a walk is 100% of the value of a single. With a runner on first, the value is almost identical. With runners in scoring position and no force play, with constitutes an overwhelming minority of any batter's plate appearances, there is a definite increase in value between a single and a walk, but again this constitutes a minority of plate appearances. I think any measure at all which fails to account for walks is a flawed one. Mark McGwire's career walk rate (excluding IBBs) is %17.2. Wade Boggs' is %13.1. To exclude walks in the discussion is to unfairly discount more than a quarter of the bases McGwire was able to obtain at the plate. That's a significant amount of value being discounted, and if its not considered value as a hitter I'd like to know what it is. By the way, Mark McGwire's IBB rate is roughly 2%. Boggs' is 1.8%. You can't discount McGwire's 150 IBBs without discounting Boggs' 180 IBBs.

I see now what part of the issue is.

You're putting "value as a hitter" and "ability to hit" as the same thing. It isn't. There's a reason that that the BA stat AND the OBP AND the OPS stats exist. I never said that Boggs' value as a hitter was better than McGwire's (and actually my points are quite the contrary). I said that Boggs was a better hitter, full stop. There is absolutely no question that Boggs was able to put the ball in play safely better than McGwire was (IE - Hit).

As for the walks value we disagree slightly. With nobody on, a walk is every bit as good as a single. That's where it stops though. The moment somebody is on, the walk has the minimal value of all ways of reaching base. A single will move the runner at minimum forward one base. There's the chance that the advancement is two bases, or the runner scores. A walk will do nothing but advance the runner one base, period. Having a force in play or not means nothing because we're talking about a single (or any other hit). That means there is no out made, the situation of force or not is irrelevent. We've already made the determination of the at bat by saying "single." The only time that a walk is ever as good as a single is with nobody on. Even then it's debatable. A walk doesn't put the ball in play. A single does. With the ball in play, anything can happen. With a walk the ball is essentially dead.

The ability to draw walks isn't even directly related to the hitter (I'm not saying that this ability doesn't exist however). A guy like McGwire gets pitched around. A guy like Boggs gets the majority of his walks because his eye at the plate is ridiculously good. Big difference. McGwire didn't have to have a good eye (although I think his eye at the plate was underrated, but different story).

Anyhooters, that's really a side bar because on the main point we aren't far off from each other.

It's just that if you're trying to measure the skill set specially suited to driving in runs, which I think we've agreed is power, trying to gauge much with RBIs is wanting because of its assumption of equal opportunity.

The ability does exist, however the measure of it isn't really quantified correctly.

I'd also like to say thanks for the discussion and for being a new age stat guy that, well, doesn't act like a new age stat guy (Y)

[naiwf]

If Tulo had put up decent numbers before September he might have won the MVP.

With what he's done so far today (3-3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 runs) he's 26-68 with 14 HR, 33 RBI and 23 runs in 16+ games. His splits are .382/.432/1.088. For comparison's sake, before September he had a total of 12 HR and 55 RBI.

[gunnar hendershow]

Tulo's had the best 2 weeks of any player I can remember. But let's not forget that Carlos Gonzalez is the best player on that team, and a major MVP candidate all of the sudden.

Oh, and like 2007 I have officially fastened my seatbelt for another ride on the Rox October Bandwagon.

Edited September 18, 2010 by damshow

[naiwf]

Tulo's had the best 2 weeks of any player I can remember. But let's not forget that Carlos Gonzalez is the best player on that team, and a major MVP candidate all of the sudden.

Oh, and like 2007 I have officially fastened my seatbelt for another ride on the Rox October Bandwagon.

CarGo may be the best player on that team, but without Tulo's Babe Ruth impression they'd be out of the race right now. If they make it to the postseason I would not be surprised to see Tulo's monster month take away just enough points to kill Gonzalez' shot at MVP.

[HailtotheYo]

Sooooo Tyler Colvin was stabbed in the heart with a Trident ...

ok no, but a broken bad did puncture his chest:

Story

[gunnar hendershow]

It's only a matter of time until a shattered bat does much worse to someone. I hope this is a wake-up call to the types of materials being used to make MLB bats.

[GhostMachine]

I'm just waiting for the crazies to suggest using metal bats instead.

[HailtotheYo]

I remember them toying around with it in the early 90's ... watched the A's take batting practice with them during a road trip to Texas .... uh yeah, Harlod Baines was clocking it like 600ft ...

[naiwf]

Steinbrenner's plaque is ridunculous. I'm assuming he had a small penis and that was his family's way of compensating

[gunnar hendershow]

Steinbrenner's plaque is ridunculous. I'm assuming he had a small penis and that was his family's way of compensating

George Steinbrenner is apparently more important than BABE RUTH. So, as a result, we have to revise the whole "Three Most Important People to American Culture" List now.

1) Elvis

2) George Steinbrenner

3) Babe Ruth

[Johnstone1987]

Ichiro hit #200 today to set/tie the mlb record 200 hits every year for the past 10

[JStarr]

Steinbrenner's plaque is ridunculous. I'm assuming he had a small penis and that was his family's way of compensating

George Steinbrenner is apparently more important than BABE RUTH. So, as a result, we have to revise the whole "Three Most Important People to American Culture" List now.

1) Elvis

2) George Steinbrenner

3) Babe Ruth

Steinbrenner's monument = 7 X 5, or 35 square feet.

The other plaques = 2 X 3, or 6 square feet.

If square footage is proportional to importance, Steinbrenner > Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, AND Miller Huggins combined, give or take a Whitey Ford or Thurman Munson to be named later.

I'm sure The Boss himself would agree.

[HailtotheYo]

I'm sure The Boss himself would agree.

I know they've bought everyone the last 40yrs, but uh ... I missed the news that Springsteen signed with the Yanks

[Lowerdeck]

The Yankees clinch a playoff spot and eliminate Boston at the same time.

Half my Facebook news feed is pretty much assholes gloating about it. Boston fans knew this day was coming a long time ago anyway.

[gunnar hendershow]

The Yankees clinch a playoff spot and eliminate Boston at the same time.

Half my Facebook news feed is pretty much assholes gloating about it. Boston fans knew this day was coming a long time ago anyway.

At least you aren't friends with Phillies fans AND Yankees fans. I'm basically gonna have to avoid Facebook for the 2nd straight October.

[zero]

Who cares about the Phillies or the Yankees? The Cincinnati Reds are going to the playoffs for the first time since 1995! Nineteen motherfucking ninety-five!

[gunnar hendershow]

Congratulations to the Reds and their fans. As an Oriole fan I'm always happy to see other teams end their long October droughts.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&page=starting9/100929

Here's Crasnick's 9 feel good stories from this season.

Also, Ken Burns' documentary on baseball has its 10th inning airing right now (Well part 1 was yesterday and part 2 is tonight). Anybody catching it? I'm going to pick up a DVD set of the whole thing once they add the 10th inning to it. After all, my favorite player of all-time Cal Ripken is a major focus.

Edited September 29, 2010 by damshow

[Damian WayLNKe]

I really enjoyed Part 1 last night. The narrator is the same one that did the special about comic books on the History Channel so that keeps throwing me off (especially when he would talk about the Yankees since a focus in the comic book special was New York and 9/11).

[Lowerdeck]

I got Part 1 on the DVR, Part 2 taping now. I'll probably watch it this weekend, or when I can keep control of the room with the DVR for four hours.

No, no Phillies fans that I know. But well, 55% of my friends are Boston fans who are like... "it's still baseball season?", 40% Yankees fans, a couple of those who like other teams wherever, and a handful of very very misguided souls (Mets fans)