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Guest mr. potato head

Current state of EWB mafia:

*crickets* *crickets* *crickets

"Hey X, why did you say this? Seems dumb."

"It's not that dumb really."

*badger* *badger* *badger*

*crickets* *crickets* *crickets

"Well we might as well vote for X, it's not like there's anything else to go on."

X was town.

*crickets* *crickets* *crickets

"Hey Y, why did you say this? Seems dumb."

"It's not that dumb really."

*badger* *badger* *badger*

*crickets* *crickets* *crickets*

"Well we might as well vote for Y, it's not like there's anything else to go on."

Y was town.

*crickets* *crickets* *crickets

"Why's everybody so quiet?"

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I need to get the important parts of her education under way. Can anyone direct me to the game where -Matt- came up with the 51% theory :pervert:

I can't even remember what the theory was but I still stand behind that there was logic behind it.

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IIRC there were two guys you were suspicious of and maybe even there was a decent reason why they specifically could be mafia together (like one had defender the other.) You took the average chance of a player being mafia (say 1 in 4) and extrapolated to 1 in 2 (the chance that neither is mafia.) Why I think that's wrong is because you can apply those figures to any given pairing of players in the game, but you used them to imply something specific about the two players you accused. If we lynch one of those players and he's town, we might look at your stat and believe it gives a better chance of the second being scum. If we lynch the first player and he's scum, then (through the relationship you've tried to promote) we also believe the second player is scum.

Edited by -A-
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Guest mr. potato head

No attempt to apply maths to Mafia has ever worked, even when you take out power roles.

Except for deducing how many scum there are from the number of players.

Which only worked once.

In a seven-person game. :shifty:

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