MLB 2023

[The Buscher]

A lineup with Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman will probably sleepwalk to 100 wins.  The regular season may as well be a 6-month Spring Training.  I feel similarly about the Braves as well.  Feels like you can already pencil those two teams in for the byes and call it a day.

So yeah, pressure will be on for the NLDS.

[Meacon Keaton]

I'm not penciling them in for 100 wins until I know who outside of Walker Buehler is starting games for them. 

But yeah, that lineup is stacked.

[The Buscher]

Well if reports are to be believed they're still very much in on Yamamoto and seem content to go wild with spending this offseason.  While Japanese stars over the year generally didn't like to be on MLB teams with one another due to hierarchical beliefs + wanting the sponsorship opportunities for that market, Yamamoto's said to be keen on the idea of being on a roster with another Japanese star since he loved his experience in the WBC.  In that sense you don't have a better selling point than Ohtani, plus he's setting up shop for his US visits in LA.  It's hard to look at their contracts and think they'll hand out yet another $300+ million one but after giving $700 million to one guy I don't know what to believe anymore.  If the Dodgers offer him similar money to the NY teams he may very well take it.

Speaking of Japanese aces, Roki Sasaki has asked to be posted as soon as possible.  His club is expected to deny it this year but there's a belief he has an out in his clause for next offseason similar to Ohtani.  If this happens, he'd come to MLB outside of the normal posting process and would be limited to the signing teams' IFA budget.  So a team that saved most of budget would probably only be able to give him like $7-8 million and it's more likely he'd be getting significantly less than that.  It'd also lock him into the usual 6-years of team control.

Kudos to him if he does it, would cost him a LOT of upfront cash but presumably he'd be happy to just spend his career in the big leagues.  Also if he lived up to the hype he'd still only be entering his age 29 season hitting free agency, same age Cole was.

[gunnar hendershow]

The Dodgers will be just fine when it comes to adding pitching.

 

[The Buscher]

That’s such blatant circumvention.  I mean kudos to the Dodgers for exploiting a loophole but if Steve Cohen deferred a contract like this it would’ve been banned within a week.

Forget the owners and union negotiating the CBA, the owners are gonna kill each other before 2027.

[gunnar hendershow]

Passan did have a really good breakdown of it a few days ago and basically made it sound like the deferred money could've been a lot less and the CBT number would've still been between 40 & 50 courtesy of things like high interest rates and present dollar value.

[Your Mom]

What the fuck? I'm not sure I understand it but that just seems wrong

[The Buscher]

It’s actually a really bad precedent for players because it can easily be weaponized against the next big free agent (presumably Soto).  “You’re not Ohtani, your CBT hit can’t be that high.”

Most players are not going to trade this amount of current money for future money.  Ohtani is likely the only guy who could ever agree to do this because he pulls in $50 million a year in endorsements.

[Your Mom]

 

[The Lusophone]

If it's structured this way, will that factor into the Dodgers cap for 2034 onwards?

 

[gunnar hendershow]

I'm not certain. The present value of a $700 million contract paid out over 20 years is calculated at $460 million, hence how they get to the CBT number of $46 million. That's what Passan was getting at a few days ago.  I'm not sure what would've happened if he was getting paid $70 million a season, if absent deferrals the CBT would've been at that instead of an AAV of present dollar value as it has been set.

What's weird is I have no idea what he does once the $68 million starts coming in - does he domicile in Florida or Delaware for 6 months and a day or something? Japanese taxes I think are even higher than US + CA. Maybe he just doesn't care. Usually the deferrals are so that retired players can move to a very tax advantaged situation.

[Maxx]

Dodgers getting their own Bobby Bonilla Day.

[gunnar hendershow]

Been reported this was all Ohtani and his reps idea, basically proposing a contract structure to all teams in order to keep the CBT amount as low possible so that the team would have as much flexibility as possible to make other moves to stay/be competitive.

I'm wondering how many teams balked at the super high deferred money, surely had to be at least one.

[Maxx]

The A’s were so put off they didn’t even talk to him!

[gunnar hendershow]

6 minutes ago, Maxx said:

The A’s were so put off they didn’t even talk to him!

"We were willing to offer him $600 million!" - other teams 

[Your Mom]

 

[Your Mom]

 

[The Buscher]

Dodgers on the verge of acquiring SP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from the Rays in exchange for SP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny DeLuca.

If the trade goes through it's pretty much your prototypical Rays move - trading two expensive guys nearing free agency for two guys with 5+ years of control.  Trade simulator labels that as a big win and overpay for LA, Pepiot would be a great get for Tampa.

[Your Mom]

😮 He must be twice as good as Ohtani!

[The Buscher]

General consensus from the media seems to still be that Yamamoto will be a Yankee.  Most do expect Cohen will make him the highest offer, possibly by a significant margin, but they seem to all believe he's enraptured by the Yankees' organizational prestige and that he's simply using the Mets to buy up the final Yankees price as much as possible.

I mean, if Cohen really does offer him the most and he says no there's not much you can do.  All you can really ask is to have an owner willing to make the spend for top talent.  Would be a gut punch though to just get another reminder that even players view the Mets as second rate, as that's not really a perception that money can overcome.

I will say that if the Mets DO get Yamamoto, expect pundits to all say it's way too many dollars/years to give to a guy who has never thrown a pitch here, that it reeks of desperation and that Cohen is ruining baseball.  But if he gets that same contract from the Yanks/Dodgers it'll be hailed as a great, bold move and healthy for baseball to see the top clubs going for it.