NCAA Football 2014 Thread

[DFF]

Okay, so, for someone with relatively little knowledge on the tournament side of college football... why is it so complicated with how the teams get to the playoffs? What's stopping them simply using win-loss records etc?

[HailtotheYo]

Okay, so, for someone with relatively little knowledge on the tournament side of college football... why is it so complicated with how the teams get to the playoffs? What's stopping them simply using win-loss records etc?

Idiocy .... plain and simple.

There is merit to the "strength" of a team ... unfortunately many involved (and the media) use archaic thought processes and decade old myths to formulate the "strength" of certain teams/conferences.

On that flip side though, with 4 slots going simply by win loss record ... who gets in ? FSU is in as the only undefeated. Now you've got Bama/Oregon/TCU/Baylor/Ohio State all with 1 loss .... that's 5 teams for 3 slots. Maths don't work. Even more so, every single one of those teams can win this weekend. Then what ?

The problem is that for whatever reason, Division 1 football thinks it is different than any other division/sport that is played here. It's stupid. D3, D2, FCS football all use a playoff that includes all conference champions and then teams deemed worthy to fill out the bracket. Ditto for every single other collegiate sport. But D1 somehow is in this bubble where the rules and thoughts of everything else simply don't apply.

Honestly ... there is ZERO reason we can't have a 14 or 16 team playoff that includes every conference champion (10 teams) ... that still leaves PLENTY of room for that SEC, Big 12, PAC, Big 10, ACC number 2 that has 1 loss ... or the 1 loss "other" conference team that only lost to the conference champion. Point is, with every conference champion in, and then another 4 or 6 teams on top you've included everyone that should have a shot at the national title.

Mike Riley ... I'm torn on my opinion of this hire. I LOVE him as a coach but I'm just not sure that he didn't miss his shot at a big program. Yes, he did wonders with OrgST and Erickson did benefit from his recruiting. There's a trend though ... and even with the 'other' issues surrounding why it is hard to win there, he's being caught and passed as a coach. I certainly don't think it's a stupid hire and I certainly feel he deserves the chance at a big school. Just thinking it's 5 years too late.

[Plubby]

Not all win-loss records are created equal. The talent is so diversified that Boise State's 10-2 record is less impressive than Michigan State's 10-2 because Michigan State has had to play against harder teams.

Compare the NFL, where the worst team is so much closer to the best team than it is in College. so two teams with the same records are usually approximately comparable, and if one team is 12-4 then it is clearly better than an 8-8 team because you play against just over the half of the other teams in the league in the NFL. Compared to college playing less than 10% of the other teams in a season, so two (again) 10-2 records are not indicative of how much better you are than the rest of the competition.

[HailtotheYo]

Not all win-loss records are created equal. The talent is so diversified that Boise State's 10-2 record is less impressive than Michigan State's 10-2 because Michigan State has had to play against harder teams.

Compare the NFL, where the worst team is so much closer to the best team than it is in College. so two teams with the same records are usually approximately comparable, and if one team is 12-4 then it is clearly better than an 8-8 team because you play against just over the half of the other teams in the league in the NFL. Compared to college playing less than 10% of the other teams in a season, so two (again) 10-2 records are not indicative of how much better you are than the rest of the competition.

Which we can apply the inverse two as well. Just because you're 10-2 in the SEC East .... doesn't mean you're better than being 10-2 in the Big 12 or Pac 12 or ACC.

Hell, we've seen that being 10+ wins in the power 5/6 doesn't mean you're any better than a 10+ win team from any conference. If you're a 10 win team, it doesn't matter who you've played .... you're good, period. The point of the playoffs (and crowning a national champion) is to see who the "best" of the "good" teams are.

[Mofoticon]

The problem with a bigger playoff format is that it dilutes the regular season. There is no better regular season in any sport than College Football's as it is essentially a playoff in itself. If you make it a 16 team playoff then you significantly weaken the games that matter right now. For example, tonights game between Arizona and Oregon could be for a playoff spot....if it was a 16 team playoff, this game would mean very little because both are already in. Same goes for Bama-Missouri, and FSU wouldn't need a win tomorrow to make it in. It's just not a good idea in my mind to expand the playoff beyond 4 teams because I love the College Football regular season and I do not want to see a big playoff format making that obsolete. I know the idea of deciding it on the field in a playoff is intriguing in theory, but the regular season already does that.

[HailtotheYo]

D3, D2, FCS, NAIA, and HS all laugh at that argument. So does the NFL. There is NONE ... absolutely zero talk of any of those having a weak, diluted, or meaningless regular season. NONE.

If the format were 16, Arizona and Mizzou would still need to win to get in. They've lost twice already ... a third would knock them out. GT would get in if they won tomorrow as opposed to still not getting in if they do as it stands now.

Remember, conference champs get in. That's 10 of the 14/16 spots .... so we're only talking about another 4 or 6 teams. This season it would look like (using highest ranked team from conf title match ups as champs):

UCF/Memphis (they didn't play so the conference would have to figure it out)

FSU

Baylor (they beat TCU)

Ohio State

Marshall

Northern Illinois

Boise St

Oregon

Alabama

ULL (Georgia Southern is ineligible for post season)

That leaves these teams all in contention depending on results of this weekend:

TCU (one loss)

KState (playing Baylor for a shot at a share of the Big12 title though they lost to TCU)

Mizzou (playing Bama for the SEC title)

MissST (two losses)

Arizona (playing Oregon for the PAC title)

Bowling Green (playing NI for the MAC title)

Fresno State (playing Boise St for the MWC title)

ColoradoST (two losses)

Louisiana Tech (playing Marshall for the CUSA title)

Wisconsin (paying OhST for the Big10 title)

MichiganST (two losses)

Georgia Tech (playing FSU for the ACC title)

How in the world does that weaken anything ? You have MORE of EVERYTHING. More teams with a shot, more intrigue, games that matter beyond the 1%, more teams in more conferences involved longer into the season ... etc etc. How is this weaker ?

[DMN in the House]

16 is too many. 8 is perfect.

Champions of the power 5, best champion of the rest, two at large with extra weight to any remaining conference champion.

[gunnar hendershow]

16 is too many. 8 is perfect.

Champions of the power 5, best champion of the rest, two at large with extra weight to any remaining conference champion.

Yeah the 8 team playoff really is perfect. You don't force these guys to play 17-18 games a year that way, you guarantee either an amazing Mountain West or CUSA team doesn't get the shaft, and you compensate for the issue where an 11-1 team is left out of the conference title game because of an archaic tiebreaker. Or if an undefeated gets upset in the conference title game, yet everyone naturally agrees they're one of the best 8 in the country, they still get their shot. The only major problem that can come up with that is a really great Notre Dame or BYU team being weighted as less because they don't play a full conference slate.

[DMN in the House]

A really great Notre Dame team would never get left out, their schedule would see them through.

BYU, admittedly, probably not so much.

[gunnar hendershow]

Arizona must have not made the trip up to Santa Clara, they probably accidentally drove to Candlestick and are confused and wondering where the hell the game is supposed to be.

[HailtotheYo]

While 8 is probably what'll end up as the final format for a good long while .... it absolutely still isn't enough.

16 moves the "argument" down to the #12-16 teams and who should round out the bracket ... but ensures that all of the "right" teams are in. It accounts for ND and BYU having fantastic seasons, Boise St - Cincinnati - Marhsall having fantastic seasons, and two or three Power 5 teams that have 1 loss.

8 teams still leaves too much debate and honestly, would leave out at minimum 1 team that absolutely should have a chance. Hell just look at this season:

Baylor

TCU

FSU

Ohio ST

Alabama

Oregon

Marshall

Boise ST

Georgia Tech

Wisconsin

Mizzou

Michigan State

Miss State

[DMN in the House]

Half those don't belong in at this point, and there are some that wouldn't belong in regardless.

An eight team playoff, as I proposed it, would, assuming the teams likely to win, end up with;

Florida State (ACC Champion)

Baylor (Big XII Champion)

Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion (due to tOSU being on their third QB))

Alabama (SEC Champion)

Oregon (PAC-12 Champion)

Boise State (Mountain West Chap Champion/highest ranked non power five champion)

TCU (at large)

Marshall (at large)

No one outside of that group legitimately deserves a shot at the championship, unless you want to argue for Memphis, Georgia Southern, or the MAC Champion. Pretty much every other team has been eliminated on the field (including TCU, but that was a very close, arguably controversial, road loss to the conference champion).

The top sixteen in the committee poll at this point includes UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss. None of them deserve a shot.

Eight is perfect. You're unlikely to leave out a one loss team (unless multiple champions out of the American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain and Sun Belt, or Notre Dame/BYU all finish with one loss), and if you lose two games, historically, you're not national championship caliber anyway. There have only been 2 consensus national champions with more than one loss side 1936;

(I'm including only the AP champion from 1936-50, the 'consensus national champion' from 1950-BCS, and the BCS champion after that. Otherwise this becomes madness)

1960 Minnesota 8-2 (although they share the 'consensus' title with a 10-0-1 Ole Miss team)

2007 LSU 12-2

I wasn't alive for 1960 but I think we can all agree that 2007 was an unusual year, and LSU would have made a group of eight as SEC champion.

Eight is perfect, anything else dilutes the playoff pool.

[Silva]

59-0 over the #2 defense in the nation. If Ohio State doesn't jump Florida State, there's a real problem with this selection committee.

[The Buscher]

It's between TCU and OSU. TCU getting dropped in favor of OSU in what would amount to little more than the committee deciding to punish the Big 12 for declaring co-champions. It would make them look like idiots for putting TCU at 3 only to bump them to 5 after a 55-3 win, but they can't drop FSU after putting up the only undefeated season in the power 5 conferences. I don't care that they struggled against bad teams...you can't take them out.

I'm glad I'm not on that committee.

[HailtotheYo]

Historically .... 8 slots won't cover the amount of undefeated/1-loss teams + other conference champions. Just last season there were 10 teams heading into the bowl season with 1-loss or being undefeated PLUS a few more conference champions. 2012 there were 6 such teams + other conference champions. 2011 there were 6 + other conference champions. 2010 there were 9 + other conference champions. 2009 there were 6 + other conference champions.

8 isn't enough room. It just isn't. This whole Power 5 bullshit thinking has tainted things.

If OSU jumps FSU (and FSU doesn't get in) I"ll personally petition for the fucking BCS back.

[Maxx]

Nah, TCU is going to get dropped out, because they aren't allowed to get a fair shot at a national title.

[Mofoticon]

OSU is going to jump TCU (Baylor is too probably) and I think we will see OSU vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl as the 3 vs the 2 (classic Pac 12 vs Big Ten matchup) and Bama vs FSU in the Sugar Bowl as the 1 vs the 4 (short travel distance for both). It puts the 4 best teams in place and assures that the fans will be there for the games.

[Szumi]

Yepp, Ohio State jumped TCU and Baylor.

Florida State meets Oregon, and Alabama plays the Buckeyes.

[Mofoticon]

Didn't work out like I figured but OSU getting in was the obvious choice. Their resume was better and demolishing a good Wisconsin team put them over the edge. Can't wait for Saban vs Meyer!

[Maxx]

Um...lets go Ducks?