The January Transfer Window - 2018

[Nerf]

Just now, Matt said:

So transfers have gone mad then? Unless you think market inflation at 450% compared to actual inflation at 150% over the same period is normal.

I'm still not quite sure why you're conflating general economic inflation with niche, consumer-driven market inflation. Unless you think that all prices rise at an identical rate relative to economic booms with no room for variables, but that isn't true. The joke about Freddos getting more expensive is actually fairly similar to the transfer market - at the current rate of inflation you specified, they should have only gone up to 15p, but in actuality they now cost 25p. You see that isn't consistent with "actual inflation," right?

Transfers haven't "gone mad" any more than they went mad with Trevor Francis - you can guarantee people heard about a player selling for a million and had a similar gut instinct reaction of "what the fuck?" even back then. The giveaway is how we seem to have this exact same conversation every year and yet never seem to learn from it. I suspect a lot of it is to do with anchoring. We're primed by relatively low transfer fees of years gone by which makes it harder to stomach the natural and completely foreseeable price rises year on year. Notice how nobody talks about Pogba's fee anymore? Because it wasn't as insane as we thought it was, as it turns out it was just United--to their credit--being ahead of the market curve.

Transfer fees aren't relative to economic inflation, but rather the growing sum of money coming into the game through TV deals and the like. The actual calculation to determine whether things have truly "gone mad" is to see how Premier League spending has gone up in relation to how their revenue has increased. Football inflation (both transfer spending and revenue) has actually increased at a rate more like ten times higher than normal economic inflation.

Paul Tomkins has written a lot about this concept if you're actually interested in learning about it. It's quite fascinating.

[MDK]

2 minutes ago, Nerf said:

Transfers haven't "gone mad"

They have and you know it. But footballers are like a piece of art; they are worth exactly what someone will pay for them. 

[Matt]

I understand why transfer fees have increased rapidly, that doesn't stop it being silly. 

[Adam]

I honestly think they should scrap transfer fees now, it's all very silly. How you remedy the situation I don't know, but it has gotten way out of hand.

You can't deny Nerf that the transfer market has gone through the roof quite rapidly in the last year. Instead of steady, incremental rises in fees as before, we've seen a couple of huge moves totally distort the market and now everyone is quite literally paying for it. PSG more than doubled the world record fee for Neymar and this is what it's lead to.

[Szumi]

As a Liverpool fan, transfers have certainly gone mad. Is that stopping me from being thrilled that we signed VVD? Absolutely fucking not. 

We paid huge money to get someone Klopp thinks can be the leader of the back line, fits his system, and is a quality center back. Crazy fee or not, if he comes in and helps make things better, that fee is nothing in the long run, especially to the crazy money clubs bring in now.

This fee only becomes an issue if VVD flops. That being said, he isn't the lone answer to the defensive woes of Liverpool. While I think Henderson gets way too much unjust stick from supporters, he's not a holding midfielder. Until the back line gets a proven talent in front of them to shield them, we will still concede too many goals. Having a keeper that the back line can't trust doesn't help either. VVD is hopefully just the first step here.

[Adam]

I should add actually that, Neymar aside, the one thing that has absolutely made a sudden and marked difference in the level of transfer fees increasing is that big fat TV deal handed to the Premier League that allowed even the small clubs to start spending £20-30mil on individual players.

[Szumi]

Not sure how trusted it is, but Bild is reporting that we're going to sign Goretzka as well. Really hope that happens.

[Hobo]

Agreed.

VVD's fee is probably the result of a number of things. The increased amount of money from TV deals, the fact there is a dearth of decent centre backs and the fact Southampton got pissed off at Liverpool in the summer.

Premier league clubs are going to pay premiums for players. Especially between premier league clubs. Clubs can say no because they've got money. Players can wait out transfers. 

Clubs are breaking their transfer records all over the place. A number of the worlds biggest transfers have been by Chinese clubs. 

It's only going to keep happening. Until the bubble bursts.

[MDK]

27 minutes ago, Adam said:

I honestly think they should scrap transfer fees now, it's all very silly. How you remedy the situation I don't know, but it has gotten way out of hand.

You can't deny Nerf that the transfer market has gone through the roof quite rapidly in the last year. Instead of steady, incremental rises in fees as before, we've seen a couple of huge moves totally distort the market and now everyone is quite literally paying for it. PSG more than doubled the world record fee for Neymar and this is what it's lead to.

This is why I love Orient. I don't have to worry about stupid transfer fee's, our Brand Image in Asia or whatever, stupid pointless plastic pre-season cups and constant merry go round of managers.

Well, maybe not the last one.

No soul in football these days.

[The Lusophone]

9 minutes ago, It's Pronounced Zoom-E said:

Not sure how trusted it is, but Bild is reporting that we're going to sign Goretzka as well. Really hope that happens.

How many centre mids do you need? >_>

[DavidMarrio]

Not gonna lie. Couldn't give a fuck about transfer fees in general as long as the club can afford it and it's not putting the financial stability of the club at risk. 

Historically we tend to make more money than we spend. Past few seasons we've sold Suarez for 70/80mil, sold Benteke for 30mil, sold Sterling and Torres for 50mil. I mean even before this season despite the likes of Chelsea, City and United spending 40mil + a lot our record signing was Andy fucking Carroll on a panic buy.  

End of the day it's not my money. I'm just made up we've got a good centre half who our manager wants. 

3 minutes ago, MadJack said:

How many centre mids do you need? >_>

Have you seen how bang average are centre mids are. 

[therockbox]

32 minutes ago, Hobo said:

It's only going to keep happening. Until the bubble bursts.

Can't come soon enough.

[MDK]

Eden Hazard has apparently rejected a contract and is trying to phone Real Madrid but their fax machine is broken or something.

Probably bollocks but I cant wait to find out about the ludicrous amount of money he will go for. 

[Gazz]

54 minutes ago, MDK said:

This is why I love Orient. I don't have to worry about stupid transfer fee's, our Brand Image in Asia or whatever, stupid pointless plastic pre-season cups and constant merry go round of managers.

Well, maybe not the last one.

No soul in football these days.

Dude, Orient are fucking massive in Bhutan.

[MDK]

Just now, GaChristmaszz said:

Dude, Orient are fucking massive in Bhutan.

So is my cock but it isn't making either of us any dosh. 

[Gazz]

You're obviously just not marketing it right.

[MDK]

BIG IN JAPAN (if you use metric)

[Hobo]

2 hours ago, MadJack said:

How many centre mids do you need? >_>

ALL OF THEM

 

 

[Adam]

3 hours ago, MDK said:

This is why I love Orient. I don't have to worry about stupid transfer fee's, our Brand Image in Asia or whatever, stupid pointless plastic pre-season cups and constant merry go round of managers.

Well, maybe not the last one.

No soul in football these days.

Funny you mention that, as I was going to agree fully with your post but then remembered that Rovers are planning a pre-season tour to Thailand due to our kit makers being FBT.

I guess we are pretty big league compared to the Orient nowadays though

[Colly]

6 hours ago, Lineklaus said:

It is a good thing for them I suppose that they didn't let this one slip too.

I don't get it.