MLB 2023

[Krabby]

1 minute ago, Busch Wyatt said:

Earlier this week Passan said something to the effect that probably very little will be known about Ohtani until he makes his decision.  Yesterday other reports surfaced that his camp has made it clear to teams that he does not want his free agency visits to be leaked, and will hold it against teams if info gets out.  He basically wants the whole process to be as quiet and with as little attention as possible.

In a world where the sports media try to get every story as soon as possible - it's wild to think that the biggest free agent signing of all time, a landscape-altering player who will get the largest contract in history, will just randomly have his decision posted on Twitter one day without anyone even knowing who is in the bidding.

Especially considering that "The Decision" was not that long ago really and it's not like Sports Media has taken any steps back whatsoever

[The Buscher]

The media stuff is probably the most direct reason I can give to Mets fans who still are pining at the idea of signing him why it's very unlikely to happen. 

It's not the money - I don't necessarily believe the rumors that the Mets will deliberately scale back payroll.  I don't think they'll have the same level of "win now" approach to free agency as they did the last two years but they're obviously gonna be interested in any top players who can help them long-term and Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto etc all certainly qualify.  There's little doubt in my mind that Cohen will plop down the most lucrative offer of any team if he really wants him.

And despite the shit year last year I think there's plenty of baseball-related stuff they can successfully pitch to Ohtani.  A solid core of stars, some exciting young prospects on the team now and a bunch more in the farm from their trade deadline selloff.  Ohtani's said to be a big believer in metrics and the new pitching lab + Stearns and Mendoza being analytically-inclined would help.  And, of course, an owner willing to spend.

But the one thing the Mets can't guarantee Ohtani is that they can shield him from the media.  It's literally impossible in this market.  Even in LA you can kinda get away with it and the Angels made it possible for him.  In New York though, keeping a guy away from the media means every slump you're gonna have arrogant reporters and loudmouth sports talk radio hosts screaming about a lack of accountability.  The media here thrives on blowing everything out of proportion and turning everything into a circus.

There's plenty of other orgs that can give Ohtani the largest contract ever, set him up with as good of a chance of winning next year if not more, and allow him to mostly hang in the background.  If he came to either NY team it would be legitimately stunning.

[gunnar hendershow]

For the collectors

https://www.topps.com/cards-collectibles/topps-now/shohei-ohtani-2023-mlb-topps-now-reg-card-os19.html

[Your Mom]

I love that he looks kind of ashamed of what he's done in the picture  

[The Buscher]

With acknowledgement that a lot of the Ohtani sweepstake is shrouded in mystery, Passan who is normally as reliable as it gets has said that the Red Sox, Rangers, and Mets have dropped out of the bidding and that the only known suitors left are the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, and Angels.

I've long expected it to be the Dodgers but man, if he just stays with the Angels after all of this just to go back and continuing to waste his career with Trout it would be such a wet fart.

[Meacon Keaton]

I said earlier this year that I expected him to stay with the Angels. They can afford him, he's comfortable there, it makes sense. 

[Maxx]

He could remain just about as comfortable by switching to the Dodgers, and then have the added benefit of actually being able to compete for a championship.

[Meacon Keaton]

He's just never struck me as a LA or NY kind of personality. I know, the LA/Anaheim/California Angels, but everyone knows they're nowhere close to the big stage as the Dodgers. If he's as quiet and reserved as people say he is, playing for a team you've been with and know isn't that farfetched of a possibility.

[gunnar hendershow]

Yeah, playing in Orange County is much different than playing in Dodger Stadium with boatloads of famous people at every game.

[GhostMachine]

As long as he doesn't go to the Braves or Yankees I'm fine. He's one of my favorite players, but if he goes to either, I hope he has a BA around .200, and an ERA around 7.80. (If he goes to the Giants, though, I hope those are his stats vs. the Dodgers.)

 

[Your Mom]

He should come to Chicago. I promise I won't bother him!

[The Buscher]

Ohtani's purported quietness and media aversion is as big a reason as any why I never expected him on the Mets.  The fact that they just had one of the most disappointing seasons in league history this year didn't help but at least there was an easy pitch to make that this is an owner who isn't afraid to go for it.

If there's any part of Ohtani that actually was interested in playing in New York, I can't rule out that "the Mets focusing on other players" is more like Cohen's just told his camp he's not interested in a bidding war and to give him a call once he's whittled down his final offers, since he can easily outbid anyone's final number if he really wanted to.  But Ohtani's getting over half a billion anywhere he goes and it makes sense he'd want to go somewhere he's more likely to be comfortable.

Besides, much as I'd jump for joy for signing Ohtani I can acknowledge it doesn't make much sense given the current state of the club.  They badly need starting pitching more than anything else.  He'd be a $45-50 million DH next season and whilst you'd hope he can be a two-way player again in 2024 nobody actually knows.  Obviously it's not my money and I want to have fun watching baseball so if you could get him, go for it.  But this team still wouldn't be a contender with this staff and adding that kind of contract means they'll never be under the CBT ever again, and every team is gonna want to reset eventually especially if the next CBA tries to make the draft penalties even harsher.

Yamamoto should be and seemingly is their main focus, problem is a dozen or so teams also have him as their top target and at this point the guy might get close to $300 million without ever throwing a pitch in the big leagues.  If Ohtani goes back to the Angels, the Dodgers will move heaven and earth to get Yamamoto.

[The Buscher]

Jim Leyland is the first member of the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame

[Toe]

I don't really believe any of the stories linking Ohtani or Soto to the Blue Jays. I'm guessing it's just their respective agents using the Jays to help their negotiations.

It is fun to put them both into the Jays line-up in MLB The Show...

[The Buscher]

One thing that feels clear is that if Ohtani doesn't decide his destination the Winter Meetings will be boring.  Usually this is where tons of juicy rumors get going and/or you start seeing the big names fly off the board when they're meeting with teams directly.  But beat writers from pretty much every market are commenting that this is the quietest first day of the meetings they can remember.

It's not unusual for one or two free agents to hold up the market but Ohtani is taking it to new levels, both because of his desire for his free agency to be private + the fact he's gonna command well over half a billion and, presumably, some of these teams are willing to spend big money and will pivot if they lose out on him.  There is zero reason for any major FA to have anything more than preliminary discussions with teams until Ohtani's out.

[Gabriel]

Estimates on Ohtani's value to the Jays have him pulling in between 20 and 30 million in revenue for the team, so even if you pay the dude $50 million a year, you can approach it as if you're on the hook for only $20 or $30 million for the player.

For that reason alone, I believe one-hundred percent that the ownership group is more than happy to sign off on whatever contract it takes to bring Ohtani north of the border if he chooses to sign with the Jays.

I don't think that we are the number one destination of choice, by any means, but I do believe that Toronto is very much in play here beyond just kicking the tires.

The Soto rumors, I believe have two prongs. First one is that I believe San Diego leaked Toronto's involvement in talks in an effort to try and force the hand of the Yankees and get the package they wanted from New York. I don't know if that's going to work, but it's something to try for sure. The second prong to that one, I feel is that Atkins will only pull the trigger on a Soto deal if it doesn't subtract a key player from the 2024 season (other than Manoah) AND if they get Ohtani.

Yes, you're then looking at an additional $30+ million for one year of Soto... but what better way to convince Ohtani that you're serious about contending than to go out and acquire a guy with that kind of generational bat?

Acquiring Soto also doesn't HAVE to be a rental. He is almost certain to test the free agent waters next year, but I'd wager that they would be having discussions with the player about what it might take to lock him up if they deal for him. Even if they can't lock him up before the end of the year, if the team wins the World Series or even goes on a serious run, it increases the likelihood of two things: Soto's interest in staying, and Rogers interest in further opening the pocket books. If Ohtani's valuation to the revenue is so high, then Soto's could be up there as well, especially if he keeps performing the way he has.

I don't think Rogers is concerned about spending the money if they feel like it will be a good investment. Merchandise, new fans and post-season success will help off-set a lot of those costs. So, it's not like we're all living in a dream world here with these two linked to Toronto.

All that said, I'm prepared for Ohtani to land somewhere else and Soto to end up in the Bronx anyways. It's just exciting to know that we might actually have a chance to get talents like those two.

If Ohtani gets signed, expect one of Bichette or Vlad to be inked to a long-term deal, with the other being traded for high-end prospects at some point before they hit free agency. Me personally, I'm signing Bo and holding onto Vladdy for as long as I can before I need to pull the trigger on a deal... whether or not we get Ohtani or Soto.

[Meacon Keaton]

Soto is a Scott Boras client. He will not sign any extension without testing free agency.

[The Buscher]

Not every Boras client refuses to sign an extension.  Stephen Strasburg, Jose Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, Jered Weaver, Lance McCullers, Carlos Gomez, JD Martinez, and Elvis Andrus are among the Boras clients who agreed to extensions and that’s just at a quick Google search, several of them signed right before their walk year.  Boras might advise his guys to go to free agency but that doesn’t mean they have to.

With that said it feels tough to imagine a guy getting traded to a brand new city and then signing a life-changing extension unless he really has had a preferred destination all along.  Well, that and whatever team would have to drop half a billion dollars in front of him.

[Meacon Keaton]

I should have added that he's a Boras client and he already declined a 14-year, $440 million deal. I don't think you turn that down and then not test free agency. 

[The Buscher]

I think it was actually pretty sensible why he turned down that deal.  He still had three years until free agency including two more arbitration years where he figured to get huge numbers (got $23 million last year and might hit $30 million this year) and Boras is a smart enough guy to assess future markets and see that, if Soto kept up his levels of production, he'd still be able to match that same contract a few years later if not get more.  And he very likely will get more at this rate.  Plus he's so young it's likely he'll negotiate an opt-out 4 or 5 years into it.

On top of all of that though, the Nats were obviously gonna be terrible in 2022 and in dire need of a rebuild whether Soto was there or not.  It was clear they weren't gonna be a contender for his final three years there so in that respect I can also see why he didn't want to tie his career there.

Yes, most guys will test free agency.  But, if he landed somewhere he was happy with and the team dropped an offer in front of him that Boras deems similar to what he would've gotten in next year's forecast, maybe he goes for it.

Obviously a complicated situation for this year though.  Teams don't like to trade top prospects for rentals anymore unless they truly are one big piece away from winning it all.  I sense if the Padres' financial situation is as bad as being reported Soto will end up being traded for something that 28 other teams say "that's it?"