The Survivor Thread

[GoGo Yubari]

Max also got a pretty good jab in during his AMA:

Q: What are your opinions on pre-game alliances? have you been asked to join any?

A: Kass calls all the time but I just let it go to voicemail. I gave Jim Rice a fake number.

Also, a great anecdote about Jenn.

EDIT: We're like five days into this. Voting for the female contestants takes me ten seconds. Voting for the dudes is still a minute to two minute-long "oh god I don't have enough votes yet? WHO DO I EVEN VOTE FOR" process.

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

Females: Ciera, Kass, T-Bird, Kelly Wiglesworth, Kimmi, Peih-Gee, Sabrina, Shirin, Abi & Tasha.

Males: Jeremy, Spencer, Shane, Stephen, Jeff, Joe, Vytas, Mike, Troyzan and Jim (he was really bad on RHAP so I want to see him lose again).

[GoGo Yubari]

he was really bad on RHAP so I want to see him lose again

This appears to explicitly be his strategy. Which, to be fair, is a more effective game plan than some of the other longshots have, but I'm still not voting for him.

The end of the Shirin RHAP episode is so great (though, really, all of it's great). I now need to hear footage of Rodney's impressions of the entire cast because his Max is surprisingly accurate.

[Mx. Canadian Destroyer]

He's so pompous about how good he is at the game, it's infuriating. I was sort of rooting for him after he got voted out last time but he actually just seems so awful. I want to see Shane Powers tell him what's up so badly.

Working my way through all the Rob C podcasts. Just finished Stephanie and she's more likeable than I remember her being. Kelly Wentworth was the same. Can't see either of them making it in though.

[GoGo Yubari]

I'm starting to warm on Wentworth. I might have to start throwing bubble votes her way, not that she'll get in either way. It's rough out there for the pre-jurors.

[RPS]

Jim Rice was awful his first time around. I probably would probably prefer to see him on versus Keith or Woo or somebody of that nature is because Jim Rice has zero shot of winning and I would soooooo love for him to lose badly. The guy didn't really understand how the game of Survivor worked in a Russell/Dan type way and is super cocky. He said that 5 out of 10 times he wins South Pacific. 5 out of 10 times! He didn't win the first time! I wasn't a big Jim fan the first time around, but I thought his post-show musings just show what a turd he is.

[GoGo Yubari]

Like, I don't even know who he thinks the South Pacific final 3 he could beat is. Cochran and Brandon, perhaps? Albert if Albert flipped?

He's about equal to Woo in my eyes. I actually like Woo a lot but I don't think you can possibly come back from the decision to vote Kass out. I was going to call it a Lillian Morris decision, but the truth was Lillian couldn't beat Jonny Fairplay either.

Though if Woo comes back, he can be the Bruce of a fantasy Casaya 2.0 tribe.

[GoGo Yubari]

Here's a collection of results for polls taken at Survivor communities (RHAP, /r/survivor, Survivor Sucks, whatever Derby is) re: who they've been voting for.

It, of course, discounts the casual vote but it's still interesting. You can basically break the tier lists like so:

1. Spencer, Abi-Maria, Kass, Tasha, Kelly Wiglesworth, T-Bird, Ciera, Shirin, Stephen, Joe, Jeremy, Jeff (make the cut in every single poll)

2. Shane, Peih-Gee, Vytas, Mike, Savage, Terry (make the cut in 3 out of 4)

3. Monica, Woo, Kimmi (make the cut in 2 out of 4)

4. Carolyn, Sabrina, Natalie, Kelley Wentworth, Brad, Jim, Keith (make the cut in 1 out of 4)

5. Stephanie, Mikayla, Max, Troyzan (don't make the cut in any)

With some exceptions (T-Bird and Jeff in tier 1, Keith in tier 4, maybe Troyzan with the no-hopers), it does basically line up with expectations.

[RPS]

Poor Troyzan! It was his island!

[GoGo Yubari]

That's the problem, they're filming in Cambodia for this one. Troyzan can't say his line!

[RPS]

So who are the odds on favorite to win? Of the men, I think Jeff Varner has the best shot of winning for the men, because he doesn't have a reputation, he isn't going to be deemed a huge physical threat and he has the social chops to make it far. Varner also has had the longest time to dwell and think about what he did wrong. For the women, I'm going to think that it is Peih-Gee or Ciera. I mean, it actually may be Tasha, but I feel like she'll have more of a killer reputation, whereas people may not remember that Peih-Gee correctly was telling everyone in China that Todd was going to win the game.

I think Spencer, Jeremy and Stephen are all going to be gone pre-merge. I think Kass, Abi and Shane will all make great television, but will not win.

[GoGo Yubari]

If I had to put money on a player right now, not knowing who the twenty will be, I'd go Vytas. I think he's a lock to make it in, I think he showed a lot of good gameplay in his first season, and most importantly it's a reasonably quiet game. He's in the sweet spot of not being someone who will make it in to be a big character and not to win (Kass, Shane, Keith if Keith makes it) and not being someone who can't help being a target due to reputation (Spencer, Fishbach, probably Tasha).

[RPS]

I think Vytas is a good shot. There are bigger physical and strategic threats over him, but he showed an ability to make alliances and push himself in the game when he last played. I wouldn't bet money on him, but I think given the right make-up of people he could do very well. Depends on if he learned his mistake last time of just getting too over confident.

I still think a female is going to win because people just assume a man is a bigger threat and there are way more 'threats' that are men than there is women. Who really knows until the game starts. I have great feelings this will be a fun season.

[GoGo Yubari]

Yeah, women typically do well in All-Star seasons. I can't pick one off the top of my head mostly because I think if a woman wins, it'll be one of the ones who are basically on the bubble, specifically Monica, Natalie (of course. Natalies always run deep), or T-Bird. Of the locks, I think Shirin and Tasha could find ideal scenarios but Kass, Abi, and Kelly I just can't see winning.

[GhostMachine]

My short list of people from Survivor that I never ever want to see again. And that means popping up elsewhere, not just being on the show again:

Kass and J'Tia from Cagayan

Brad Culpepper and Colton, from Blood vs. Water (won't have to worry about that with Colton, since they never bring back quitters)

John Rocker and Julie, from San Juan del Sur (Julie quit, too)

Dan, Rodney, Sierra and Will, from this season.

Keep in mind that I quit watching the show for a long time. I've only watched the very first season, a good portion of the second, and from Blood vs. Water on.

Edited May 20, 2015 by GhostMachine

[Horus]

It was actually implied in Blood Vs Water that Colton had quit in One World, exaggerating an illness he had come down with as a way to leave the game.

He was given the benefit of the doubt and brought back, only to outright quit.

You'll never have to worry about seeing Colton ever again on Survivor.

[GoGo Yubari]

Oh, before I go on radio silence Survivor-wise for the next six or seven hours, Jeff Probst said on Twitter that the reason why Greg Buis didn't make the final cut was because he had job commitments and had to pull out. So at least that one was something they didn't have control over!

[Your Mom]

What's a good old season to watch? We still have Prime for a couple weeks and they have 1 (seen it) 3 (cant remember if I have) and 9-27

[RPS]

Season 15, China, is probably the best season that would be available of those bunches. I would argue that it is probably the greatest Survivor season. 

I would think of that time period, the worthwhile seasons to check out before you can't watch them are: China (15), Panama (12), Nicaragua (21), Vanuatu (9), Tocantins (18), and Philippines (25). I would catch them in that order. If you needed another season, I would throw Fiji in there. A lot of people dislike it, but it is actually a pretty fun season under it all. 

A lot of people love Micronesia (16) and Heroes vs. Villains (20), but if you haven't seen the seasons with the returning players, it probably would not be as good. 

I would avoid seasons 13, 22, 24, and 25 like the plague, because they aren't that great. 

 

[GoGo Yubari]

Definitely watch China and Tocantins. Very much consider Panama; it is like Worlds Apart in that it's a season full of crazy people, but they're crazy in a much more fun way and the main characters are great. I think you might actually like Cook Islands (13), which RPS is advising against, but it does suffer from an awfully boring supporting cast that gets obscured by the fact that a couple of the most notable players have come from that season.

I love Micronesia and like HvV. I guess how it would fare for you if you skip certain seasons is a question, but I think you'd be okay, especially if you watched Panama and China before Micronesia and Tocantins before HvV. Blood vs. Water is season 27, right? That's another season that's heavy on returning players that I think you'd like if you haven't seen it before.

Avoid Fiji (14) like the plague. You would absolutely loathe that season.

Edited July 28, 2015 by GoGo Yubari