2017 MLB Thread

[thatshortguy]

1 minute ago, damshow said:

NL East is surprisingly deep. I flipped between Braves and Phils a lot for the last place team in that division.

The Phils are headed in the right direction, but I feel they're a year or two behind the Braves.  Their bullpen could be sneaky good, though I don't think there will be enough to get them anything other than long relief work.  I'm still not quite seeing what others are in Miami.  I'm more in line with what 'Deck predicted, though the ever-dying optimist in me hopes for a wild card berth.

[The Buscher]

It’s that time of the year again where I do my predictions for the upcoming season.  After a long winter, I can’t wait to see Major League Baseball being played in the sun again – and not fake Spring Training baseball, either.


Regular Season Standings

American League East

1.      Boston Red Sox
2.      New York Yankees (Wild Card 2)
3.      Baltimore Orioles
4.      Toronto Blue Jays
5.      Tampa Bay Rays

There are some good teams in this division, but I can’t really find a compelling reason to pick a team other than Boston to take it.  They’re just the most complete team of the bunch – and that’s including the possibility that David Price misses a large portion of the season.  Bringing in Chris Sale was such a huge move for them, doubtless he’ll be on the shortlist of Cy Young candidates.  I don’t think David Ortiz’ retirement is going to hurt them all that much – and to be honest, a small part of me still thinks he’ll decide to come back in July or August for the stretch run.

While the Yankees may be targeting the 2018 free agent class for their next huge spending spree bonanza, I think full seasons of Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird can make them a sneaky Wild Card team – and I could see Gleyber Torres coming up midseason to give them a huge boost.

Future Yankee Manny Machado will continue to be the heart and soul of the Orioles and he’ll keep them afloat.  The Jays are likely to miss Edwin Encarnacion.  And the Rays feel destined for the cellar, fitting seeing as their ugly stadium resembles one.

 

American League Central

1.      Cleveland Indians
2.      Detroit Tigers
3.      Kansas City Royals
4.      Chicago White Sox
5.      Minnesota Twins

I’m not sure how you can’t go with Cleveland here.  They already had a stacked roster that won the division in convincing fashion and very nearly won the World Series.  Now they’ve added Edwin Encarnacion to the mix and their lineup could now be even better than it was before.  Their rotation is one of the best in all of baseball, and they’ve still got a crazy good 1-2 punch in the back end of the bullpen.  It would not be the least bit surprising to me to see them win this division in a landslide again and possibly have the best record in the American League.

The Tigers I think will threaten for Wild Card contention behind their lineup of good (albeit aging) hitters and a solid rotation.  I have Jordan Zimmermann pegged as somebody who could very well have a good bounce back season after his first year in Detroit was a flop.

The Royals could be halfway decent, but they aren’t likely to have the money to lock up Lorenzo Cain which will likely see him get dealt elsewhere.  The White Sox and Twins are both clearly going through rebuilds, so I can’t see either of them being factors this year.

 

American League West

1.      Houston Astros
2.      Texas Rangers (Wild Card 1)
3.      Seattle Mariners
4.      Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5.      Oakland Athletics

Over the years the AL West seems to have given me more trouble in my predictions than any other division.  Houston underachieved last year but I feel that they’re primed for better luck this year.  Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are the most exciting infield in baseball, George Springer is a nice power bat, and they made a few shrewd veteran additions to their lineup in Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, and Brian McCann.  The rotation gives me pause, but I’m expecting a rebound year from Dallas Keuchel and I like the assortment of arms that they have in the bullpen.

The Rangers are another team with a lot to like, two studs at the top of the rotation in Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish and a really good bullpen to supplement that.  Jonathan Lucroy behind the dish for a full year is going to be key to getting them to October for a third straight year.

I imagine the Mariners will be competitive, especially if Felix Hernandez is back to his normal self.  The Angels will continue to squander the best efforts of the best player in baseball Mike Trout.  I keep forgetting the Oakland A’s exist.

 

National League East

1.      Washington Nationals
2.      New York Mets (Wild Card 2)
3.      Atlanta Braves
4.      Miami Marlins
5.      Philadelphia Phillies

The Nationals come into 2017 with the reigning Cy Young Award winner and the MVP runner-up, which is a scary start for any team.  Even if Daniel Murphy comes back down to Earth, that will likely be offset by a much better season from future Yankee Bryce Harper.  Trea Turner will be right up there amongst the top shortstops in the league, and Adam Eaton was a very nice upgrade for them.  While I do have questions about their bullpen, I don’t think there is a more well-rounded team in the division and that spells well for their chances to win the division again.

The Mets have a lot of talent but you just never know how many of the pitchers are going to get hurt.  And their offense is entirely based on the long ball, so I’m expecting long bouts of low scoring.  I’ll forecast them to squeeze their way into the Wild Card, but it’ll be close.

I’m thinking the Braves will be halfway decent and play some inspired baseball in their first year in the new ballpark.  The Marlins are still reeling from the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez.  The Phillies are still a year or two away in their rebuilding effort.

 

National League Central

1.      Chicago Cubs
2.      St. Louis Cardinals (Wild Card 1)
3.      Pittsburgh Pirates
4.      Milwaukee Brewers
5.      Cincinnati Reds

There is no touching the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs in this division.  I have another playoff team coming out of the Central and yet I still don’t think this race will be close at all simply because Chicago is on another level.  The sheer amount of depth on this team across the board is just absurd, they’re packed to the gills with exciting young players and they have one of the best rotations in all of baseball.  The sky is the limit for this team.  I’ll go as far as to say that they’ll threaten the single season wins record.

I’ve seen a lot of Cardinals fans seem to write this year off as a loss because the Cubs are going to be amazing, but I could easily see a playoff run coming from this bunch.  The rotation is questionable but I do like their bullpen and Dexter Fowler was a great signing.

The Pirates shouldn’t be pushovers, especially if Andrew McCutchen rounds back to form.  The Brewers feel like they could be sneakily decent early on before reality hits them.  The Reds aren’t even trying to look like they’re going to be competitive.

 

National League West

1.      Los Angeles Dodgers
2.      San Francisco Giants
3.      Colorado Rockies
4.      Arizona Diamondbacks
5.      San Diego Padres

And with the Dodgers selection, that’s now five of six repeat division winners being predicted.  But Los Angeles always seems to get it done.  Clayton Kershaw will continue to be the best pitcher in baseball and Kenley Jansen will have close games on lockdown.  Corey Seager will anchor what should be a quality lineup and Justin Turner will continue to amaze me with how much he changed his career trajectory.  Perhaps above all else, the Dodgers still have the prospects and the unlimited financial resources to make in-season additions as needed.

Aside from signing Mark Melancon, the Giants did basically nothing this offseason.  But after retaining all of their key players it’s not like they were in need of a huge overhaul or anything.  I see no reason to expect them not being a competitive group this year.

The Rockies may be the surprise team of the year, and I could see them flirting with a Wild Card spot.  The D-Backs ought to be better than last year with AJ Pollock in the fold all year.  The Padres might be the worst team in all of baseball.

 

Awards

American League

MVP:  Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Cy Young:  Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Rookie of the Year:  Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
Comeback Player of the Year:  Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Manager of the Year:  Joe Girardi, New York Yankees

It’s a testament to how bad I think the Angels will be that I’m predicting two award winners yet still have them finishing fourth.  But Trout is a cut above everybody else and last year showed the voters are willing to overlook team performance if the guy truly was the best player in the league.  And Richards is nasty when healthy.  Not too many are forecasting a Yankees playoff berth so I think pulling it off would give Girardi serious consideration for Manager of the Year.  I think it’s a toss-up between Benintendi and Yoan Mocada for Rookie of the Year.  And take your pick with Cy Young, there are so many good choices even on the same roster.  I’ll guess the ace of the Indians staff takes home his second Cy.

 

National League

MVP:  Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Cy Young:  Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rookie of the Year:  Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Comeback Player of the Year:  Matt Harvey, New York Mets
Manager of the Year:  Bud Black, Colorado Rockies

Kershaw might not be the most imaginative choice, but it’s the right one.  The guy is one of the best pitchers I’ve ever seen and nearly won the Cy Young last year despite missing a bunch of time.  Harper is capable of carrying the Nationals on his back if he’s back to his 2015 form, and if he’s that good he will be MVP caliber.  If the Rockies are as big of a surprise as I think they are, Black will be a prime Manager of the Year candidate.  The Diamondbacks are going to seriously regret trading away Swanson.  I tabbed future Yankee Matt Harvey for the Comeback Player of the Year over Kyle Schwarber mainly because Schwarber already had a highly publicized comeback with his remarkable World Series performance.

 

Playoffs

Wild Card Games

Yankees over Rangers
Cardinals over Mets

Picking one game is nothing short of a crapshoot.  Assuming each team was able to line up their starter, you’d be looking at Masahiro Tanaka vs. Cole Hamels and Carlos Martinez vs. Noah Syndergaard.  I actually think the teams I’ve predicted to lose have the pitching edge in those particular matchups, but that’s thing about baseball.  You just don’t know what will happen in October, especially when it’s one game for all the marbles.

 

Division Series

Red Sox over Yankees
Astros over Indians
Cubs over Cardinals
Nationals over Dodgers

MLB would be striking gold if they were to get Boston/New York and Chicago/St. Louis matchups in the same postseason.  Anything can happen in a short series but I’d have to wager against the Wild Card teams in both of those matchups due to the sheer difference in talent.  I do see the Nationals getting some semblance of revenge on the Dodgers from a year ago and they finally get the monkeys off of their backs in terms of being unable to advance out of the first round.  And the real upset of the first round would be the reigning American League champions getting bounced out by Houston.

 

Championship Series

Red Sox over Astros
Cubs over Nationals

Both of these series would have their own layer of intrigue.  Just look at how many young position players would be in this final four – Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Harper, Turner, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Altuve, Correa, Springer, and the list goes on.  And that doesn’t get into the potential pitching battles with Sale, Price, Keuchel, McCullers, Lester, Arrieta, Scherzer, and Strasburg among others.  This would just be a really good time to be a baseball fan.  Hopefully both of these series would go the distance because that’s when the sport is at its very best.  In the end however, I have Boston and Chicago taking their respective pennants.

 

World Series

Cubs over Red Sox

This predicted World Series clash is the very definition of “taking the chalk”, and Fox executives would surely be high-fiving each other at their corporate headquarters the second this matchup were to get confirmed.  The fan interest around the country would be through the roof and, more importantly, there would be a very high probability of getting some incredible baseball out of it.  Last year we saw what kind of magic is possible when two closely matched teams meet up in the World Series, and we’d be in for the same treat this year.  For such a young team, the Cubs would be the least likely to cave in such a huge spot as they have the experience edge from a year ago.  When the dust settles, I see the Cubs being the first repeat champions in nearly two decades.  Anthony Rizzo does serious damage against his original team to take home the MVP Award, and the Cubs win back-to-back titles after many thought they’d never win one.

[Lowerdeck]

5 hours ago, thatshortguy said:

The Phils are headed in the right direction, but I feel they're a year or two behind the Braves.  Their bullpen could be sneaky good, though I don't think there will be enough to get them anything other than long relief work.  I'm still not quite seeing what others are in Miami.  I'm more in line with what 'Deck predicted, though the ever-dying optimist in me hopes for a wild card berth.

 

Jose Fernandez's death alone probably cost the Marlins 10 games this year.  I also see Stanton getting dealt at some point, not sure if it'll be this year though.

[gunnar hendershow]

First pitch of the season is a ball.

[Meacon Keaton]

The Yanks are on and it once again means something. What a glorious day.

[Meacon Keaton]

Yanks lost, but I can't be mad when I'm watching Greinke vs. Bumgarner. 

[The Buscher]

I have the day off tomorrow and was dead set on going to my first Mets opener since 2008 but now I'm getting cold feet. There's some decent deals on StubHub but obviously everything is still doubled or more because it's Opening Day.

Bigger problem as a fan from CT is getting there. Normally I drive in to games and it takes a little north of an hour, but with Opening Day you know it'll be a zoo going in especially since I want to arrive early. And at the end of the game you're going out with everybody into the heart of rush hour. Other option would be train + subway which at least saves the traffic stress but that will take at least 2 hours, probably longer. Either way I choose will probably ring me up about $40 (tolls + Citi parking or train + subway round trip)

Then you add in food and drinks and stuff and yeah...it'd be an expensive and long day for game 1 of 162. As much I want to be there sleeping in and watching from the comfort of my own home and being able to hear Gary, Keith, and Ron sounds pretty tempting.

[Lowerdeck]

3 hours ago, Busch Hernandez said:

I have the day off tomorrow and was dead set on going to my first Mets opener since 2008 but now I'm getting cold feet. There's some decent deals on StubHub but obviously everything is still doubled or more because it's Opening Day.

Bigger problem as a fan from CT is getting there. Normally I drive in to games and it takes a little north of an hour, but with Opening Day you know it'll be a zoo going in especially since I want to arrive early. And at the end of the game you're going out with everybody into the heart of rush hour. Other option would be train + subway which at least saves the traffic stress but that will take at least 2 hours, probably longer. Either way I choose will probably ring me up about $40 (tolls + Citi parking or train + subway round trip)

Then you add in food and drinks and stuff and yeah...it'd be an expensive and long day for game 1 of 162. As much I want to be there sleeping in and watching from the comfort of my own home and being able to hear Gary, Keith, and Ron sounds pretty tempting.

 

Would you pick up the train from Southeast or head further down the line?

[The Buscher]

14 minutes ago, Lowerdeck said:

 

Would you pick up the train from Southeast or head further down the line?

Southeast most likely as I'd need to be driven to the station, wouldn't make them go further than they have to.

On a weekend or something I'll normally go out of Katonah but during the week there is basically zero chance of getting a metered parking spot there or anywhere else unless you go stupidly early.

[Maxx]

While I will remain a Red Sox fan first and foremost (though I am an admittedly late adopter...2004 on) the Rangers have officially moved into side girl territory.  You get exposed to the team so much living down here, its hard not to start rooting for them.  Been catching a bunch of interviews with the team on sports radio down here, and Jeff Bannister seems like just such a good man.  Gonna take the gf's dad to a game later this month.

[Meacon Keaton]

As someone that's lived in the Philly area for over ten years, I can say without a doubt it's incredibly easy to still hate the local teams, if the hatred is pure and true. But I guess if you never really hated the Rangers then it's easier to adopt them.

[The Buscher]

Watching the Mets roster get introduced along the first base line on Opening Day will never not give me chills.

[Your Mom]

Looks like Mets just got a run. Replay works!

[Your Mom]

Braves are dicks they need to pull this pitcher

[The Buscher]

With today's win, the Mets are now 36-20 all time on Opening Day.  Pretty remarkable considering they started their franchise with a 0-8 Opening Day record.

My personal favorite moment of the day, Michael Conforto getting skipped during intros:

http://m.mlb.com/nym/video/topic/47150560/v1254827483/atlnym-conforto-skipped-during-introductions

[gunnar hendershow]

Zach Britton has finally found his way into the game!

[The Buscher]

The Padres have the most fucked up roster construction I've ever seen.

No true backup outfielders.
Four catchers.
Three Rule 5 Draft picks, including two who have never played above Rookie ball.

They're as much of a slam dunk 100 loss team as I've ever seen.

[gunnar hendershow]

Also a C/OF/RP hybrid who got shellacked today against the Dodgers.

The Reds also have a pretty bad roster, in what universe is Scott Feldman and Opening Day starter?

[The Buscher]

Man, it's empty at the White Sox home opener

I know it was rained out yesterday so a bunch of people probably couldn't take a second day off - but damn

[RoHitman Reigns]

VF is officially selling Majestic to Under Armour and Fanatics. Today a press conference was held at my job where we had the governor, someone high up in Fanatics there and also the commissioner. They are going to keep the warehouse in Easton and keep everything coming out of there just eventually the logos gonna change for who makes it.