2021 MLB Season / 21-22 Offseason Thread

[gunnar hendershow]

That opt-out after year 2 feels like a hedge against any big CBA changes.

[The Buscher]

The Mets have made an offer to Billy Eppler to be their GM. Eppler was the GM of the Angels from 2015-20. He's now deciding whether to take the offer or stay with the WME Agency he just joined two months ago.

So either he becomes the latest candidate to publicly leave the Mets at the alter. Or the Mets finally make a hire but it's a guy who built a terrible farm and a big league team with a severely unbalanced payroll and horrendous pitching depth that wasted the career of the best player of his generation.

Lovely.

[The Buscher]

Jose Berrios agrees to an extension with the Blue Jays. 7 years, $131 million.

[The Buscher]

Angels sign Noah Syndergaard. 1 year, $21 million.

Wow. After throwing 2 innings in the last 2 years, everyone assumed he'd just take the $18.4 million QO. Can't blame him for making the move if the Angels were willing to take an even bigger diceroll. Thanks for the comp pick.

That said, the Mets even more than before absolutely cannot afford to lose Stroman. Pay the man.

[The Buscher]

Verlander back to the Astros, per his brother 

[MalaCloudy Black]

Shohei Ohtani rightfully the AL MVP.

[gunnar hendershow]

This is for some of our New York metro folks 

 

[The Buscher]

Seiya Suzuki is being posted by the Hiroshima Carp today.  There is a 30 day window to sign him, which will be paused and resumed during the eventual lockout.

27 years old, belted 38 home runs last year while playing great defense in right field.

Would love to see the Mets get him, especially after Cohen and Eppler both very openly said money is not an issue this offseason.  As it is, FanGraphs was projecting a contract around 4 years, $40 million which definitely feels lower than what he's actually going to get paid.  Although it's not known if he prefers a certain destination, I'd probably assume they'd have to pay an extra premium to get him to the east coast.

[The Buscher]

One of the more fascinating ballots in recent history because you have Bonds and Clemens in their final years but both need a 10% gain in their last year and there's not enough evidence that enough of the anti-PED voters will be out of the process.  I think they will be left for the Veterans Committee down the road.

You've also got the final year of Schilling, who is a known asshole, but many people who refused to vote for him for years due to his repugnant comments eventually came around and voted for him last time.  He finished 3% away last time, which trends pretty well toward him going in, especially since voters know it's the last year they can vote for him.

You have the debut appearance of A-Rod who, if he had the same numbers but no PED suspensions, would be in consideration for the best player of all time.  But because he was caught at a time a policy was in place, that kills his reputation even among the new school voters.  I suspect that puts him in Manny Ramirez territory where he's just never going to get close.

The other intriguing first-timer is Ortiz, who also has PED concerns but not at the same level of a lot of other guys.  Monster offensive numbers, a key cog in three championship teams, and a super affable personality the media seem to love.  I'd put solid odds on him going in.

Suppose my official prediction would be a Boston-heavy weekend that sees Ortiz and Schilling go in together.

[gunnar hendershow]

Won't go in on his first ballot but Jimmy Rollins has a very compelling HOF case.

[gunnar hendershow]

Rays and Wander Franco are finalizing a 10 yr/$200 million extension.

I got bored and started running math and basically if, when he hit free agency after his arb years, got a contract paying $40 million per year he'd have lost out on total earnings. Otherwise he's guaranteeing himself more money now for the first decade of his career. And he'll be 31 when he's a free agent so if he has an amazing start to his career and reaches all his potential he can get a true megadeal.

[Gabriel]

1 hour ago, damshow said:

Rays and Wander Franco are finalizing a 10 yr/$200 million extension.

I got bored and started running math and basically if, when he hit free agency after his arb years, got a contract paying $40 million per year he'd have lost out on total earnings. Otherwise he's guaranteeing himself more money now for the first decade of his career. And he'll be 31 when he's a free agent so if he has an amazing start to his career and reaches all his potential he can get a true megadeal.

The Rays are gambling here, but it's a smart gamble. Maybe Franco fizzles and they've got $20 million on the books per year... but if he stays consistent and is one of their top players, that $20 million per is going to look like a steal.

Should they run into financial issues later on, guaranteed years of Franco at that rate will fetch a huge return.

This is smart, aggressive and exciting management.

[Maxx]

Of the first year guys, I think Lincecum is the only one who has a real shot.  Only knock is longevity, but two Cy Youngs, three world series and multiple no hitters offset that pretty well.

[gunnar hendershow]

So, Steven Matz signed a good deal (4 years/$44 million) with the Cards. Cohen then proceeded to show his whole ass on Twitter after finding out about the contract.

 

[The Buscher]

Personally, I didn't want Matz back at all so I don't care that they missed out on him.  If anything, I'm alarmed that they might've considered giving him that contract at all.

From the sounds of things, the Mets were told by Matz' agent that he would give the Mets one last chance to match any offer.  It didn't happen.  I get the frustration...shitty that the agent didn't keep his word, but it's not like owners have ever reneged on agreements either.

If I want to take a hopeful approach...if Cohen feels this mad over missing out on Matz of all people, I hope he tells Billy Eppler he's got a blank checkbook to get a few more pitchers far better than Matz.

If I want to take the negative outlook...the optics of going public with this are really bad.  Despite playing in NY, the Mets have never been the destination of choice for anybody, they've always had to overpay to draw anybody in.  Stuff like this just makes them look like more of a sinking ship everyone will stay away from.

[gunnar hendershow]

What I read is Matz, not his agent, decided to take the St Louis deal. And I guess the agent didn't call Cohen to say so. Idk. It's not like the Mets lost out on a bonafide ace in his prime, they lost out on a guy who is probably a 3 starter on a competitor.

Optically I think it's terrible. It would give anyone pause seeing that if it came down to 2 equal deals from NY and another team. That said I do think Cohen is about to start outbidding teams in frustration, since he has the money. 

[The Buscher]

Frankly the Mets' only hope of contending at all in 2022 and 2023 is blowing the luxury tax out of the water, preferably on short term but very high AAV deals.  I mean they're saddled with the terrible Cano money those years anyway, why not?  By 2024 their top prospects should all be here and ready which would be the logical reset point.

Cohen has since said he has no issues with Matz at all and wishes him well, his frustration is entirely with the agent.  Supposedly the agent told him to his face that he'd get a chance to counter offer but then not only did that not happen, he never got any sort of a courtesy follow up.  "Hey, my client has made up his mind and has his heart set on St. Louis, there will be no opportunity to counter"...instead Cohen only found out about the signing at the same time everybody else did.

But yeah, the Mets always need to go the extra mile in negotiations.  Even back to the Omar Minaya days.  The 4th year for Pedro Martinez, the 7th year for Beltran...they had to do these things or else they weren't going to sign them.  A player who sees the allure of NY would undoubtedly take a little less to go to the Yankees over the Mets.

[Gabriel]

I am a little bummed to see Matz not returning to the Jays, but there are upgrades to be had, so it is what it is.

I don't think he delivers for the Cardinals. I think Matz' success with the Jays was heavily reliant on the coaching staff, much like Robbie Ray.

That's one of those things that really makes me proud as a Jays fan... is that the team not only has a great eye at finding reclamation projects with high ceilings... but they've also got the staff there to nurture those guys and give them the opportunity to show that they are better.

Pitchers who come through Toronto, who aren't bonafide superstars, and experience success only to leave... they tend to not perform so well outside the confines of the Jays. I think that's a huge testament to the coaching, and I feel like a lot of guys are going to see that as a desirable reason to play in Toronto in the coming years.

So, let the market overpay guys.... be aggressive on superstar pursuits... and then use those tools I talked about to find those value deals that Toronto is so very good at finding.

[The Buscher]

Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler doing some Black Friday shopping today as they signed the following players all within a few hours of each other:

Starling Marte:  4 years, $78 million
Mark Canha:  2 years, $26.5 million
Eduardo Escobar:  2 years, $20 million

[GhostMachine]

On 23/11/2021 at 17:31, Maxx said:

Of the first year guys, I think Lincecum is the only one who has a real shot.  Only knock is longevity, but two Cy Youngs, three world series and multiple no hitters offset that pretty well.

If Lincecum isn't a first or second year ballot inductee, I will be surprised.

A-Rod would be a first year lock if not for his PED issues. But I still see him getting in before Bonds or Clemens. 

If you go on skill and talent and ignore the other things, Schilling definitely belongs in. Were he not an asshole, he'd have been a  second ballot inductee at worst.

As for the Matz situation, can anyone really blame him for not giving the Mets a chance to match? They might very well be better off without him in the long run.