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Sky Bet EFL 2019/20


Adam

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The English Football League will next week tell clubs in Leagues One and Two there is no chance of playing any more games this season and ask them to vote on a method to decide promotion and relegation.

EFL chairman Rick Parry told MPs on the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee on Wednesday morning that a resolution to the season in the third and fourth tiers was only a matter of days away and it now seems a decision could come as early as Monday or Tuesday.

The Athletic understands the EFL board has already received several proposals from clubs, with the current favourite being a points-per-game (PPG) model weighted to reflect how many games the teams have played home and away.

The rationale for this idea is a non-weighted PPG calculation does not take into account the fact that some teams have four home games left, while others have six.

This season across the Football League, the home team has won 46 per cent of the time, with away teams winning only 26 per cent of the games. Over the last six EFL seasons, the average PPG at home is 1.55, compared to 1.19 away.

Under this method, which has been used to decide the tables in English grassroots club rugby union, each club’s PPG would be worked out for their home and away fixtures, then multiplied by 22 for League One, which had 23 clubs this season because of Bury’s demise last summer, and 23 for League Two and then added together to reach a total for the season.

The Athletic understands that a League One club has prepared a detailed explanation of this method, with a full set of final tables, and emailed it to the EFL board.

With the EFL admitting there is no chance of staging its traditional end-of-season play-offs in Leagues One and Two, the top three sides in the League One will be promoted to the Championship, with three going down to League Two, while four come up from League Two and only one goes down, to restore the EFL to its full quota of 72 teams.

The weighted PPG method does not change the top three in League One at all, meaning Coventry City would be crowned champions, with Rotherham United and Oxford United joining them in the Championship next season. The current bottom three — Tranmere Rovers, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers — would still be the bottom three, although Bolton would climb one spot, leaving Southend in last place.

In League Two, Swindon Town would leapfrog Crewe Alexandra into first place, with Plymouth Argyle staying in third but Cheltenham Town climbing over Exeter City to claim the final promotion spot. Stevenage would remain in last place, despite the seven-point deduction Macclesfield Town received on Thursday for failing to fulfil a fixture or pay their players on time.

The Athletic has spoken to two other EFL clubs who said they were aware of this proposal and several others who said they were not, but every club approached said they knew of at least half a dozen different ideas that were circulating around the league. These include using the current tables to settle the finishing positions, a non-weighted PPG model and an idea to only count the first half of the season, which would be the first 22 games in League One and 23 games in League Two.

Some clubs have discussed using more complicated statistical models that factor in how hard each club’s run-in was before the season was suspended in March. There is considerable opposition to these models, though, with one club dismissing them as “hypothetical and unfair”.

The prospect of declaring the season “null and void” appears to have receded, as most clubs acknowledge this would be very unfair on the teams that have got themselves into the promotion place. It would also come with financial and legal risks.

However, any club faced with relegation is almost certainly going to object to being demoted on the basis of PPG, weighted or otherwise. This has led to some clubs suggesting either two or three clubs are promoted this season, with none relegated. Five teams would then be relegated from the divisions above next season, in order to reset them.

But this idea will face strong opposition from the English game’s bosses as it will lead to fixture congestion next season, complicate the distribution of central income and break the terms of the tripartite agreement the EFL, FA and Premier League signed when the top flight broke away from the EFL in 1992.

As things stand, however, both the Premier League and Championship are determined to finish this season’s fixtures in neutral stadiums behind closed doors, which would mean all these issues would be settled on the pitch in the top two divisions.

 

 

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I really wish they'd just go for a one-off 22 team Premier League, award the title to Liverpool, European places as is, promote all the automatics and relegate nobody.

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Weighted PPG or what @TCO describes are the two best methods, to me.

I'm not sure why the "no relegation" method creates any fixture congestion? It adds four extra rounds of Premier League games and that's it as far as I'm aware, hardly the end of the world. But I think PPG is a fair enough method of sorting things, and if we are being honest most of the sides who would be relegated in L1/2 by that method were almost certainly going down anyway.

I am grateful my team is in a league position that means they won't be differently affected by whatever they choose, mind.

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I would be all for them still doing a Playoff for the teams who would finish in those spots. One off matches since they're at neutral grounds. Fuck it, I want to see playoffs!

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19 hours ago, Adam said:

Weighted PPG or what @TCO describes are the two best methods, to me.

I'm not sure why the "no relegation" method creates any fixture congestion? It adds four extra rounds of Premier League games and that's it as far as I'm aware, hardly the end of the world. But I think PPG is a fair enough method of sorting things, and if we are being honest most of the sides who would be relegated in L1/2 by that method were almost certainly going down anyway.

I am grateful my team is in a league position that means they won't be differently affected by whatever they choose, mind.

The only thing that may crop up some issues is Non-League have pretty much voided the season haven't they? So if you've got a team getting relegated from League 2 then doesn't this cause issues of the number of teams in League 2 / National League seen as though it looks like no one will be getting promoted into League 2? 

I agree though with yourself and @TCO in that they are the most logical conclusions. The owners who are conviently wanting the league to be voided is because of the situation their club faces such as Karen Brady's West Ham or fans of teams looking at it more from a "HA BANTER" perspective. 

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44 minutes ago, DavidMarrio said:

The only thing that may crop up some issues is Non-League have pretty much voided the season haven't they? So if you've got a team getting relegated from League 2 then doesn't this cause issues of the number of teams in League 2 / National League seen as though it looks like no one will be getting promoted into League 2? 

I agree though with yourself and @TCO in that they are the most logical conclusions. The owners who are conviently wanting the league to be voided is because of the situation their club faces such as Karen Brady's West Ham or fans of teams looking at it more from a "HA BANTER" perspective. 

That'd make it easier if anything really as it caps the temporary changes at League 2.

You just have a 21 instead of a 24 team League 2. Increased relegation spots starting with 5 from the PL but keep the normal promotion spots for 20/21 season to balance the numbers back. Everything from League 2 down remains the same as it is. Is

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The only problem with all that of course is if the season can't start in August you're suddenly trying to cram an extended top flight season in before an international tournament, but then that cramming is likely to happen regardless. In a perfect world we'd know when games could resume properly and account for it (i.e. we might only have time for finishing this season before the Euros), but that's impossible sadly.

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Obviously seeing this through the eyes of a Fulham fan, but what happens to playoff teams? Being in 3rd, my hope would be they'd promote the top 3 unsurprisingly, though I doubt things will be as simple as that.

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14 minutes ago, Baddar said:

I haven't read much about it but something along the lines of 2 up, 0 down, making it a 22 team PL rings a bell, so that'd mean Fulham miss out in that case.

This is where it becomes a bit bullshit because if you decide that the positioning of a team in promotion places warrants a promotion, then the same should happen for relegation places, necessitating a 3 up, 3 down system. The picking and choosing element is one that I'm not a fan of at all, not just because Fulham will miss out but because it doesn't apply the rules in a manner that is uniform.

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5 hours ago, DavidMarrio said:

The only thing that may crop up some issues is Non-League have pretty much voided the season haven't they? So if you've got a team getting relegated from League 2 then doesn't this cause issues of the number of teams in League 2 / National League seen as though it looks like no one will be getting promoted into League 2? 

I agree though with yourself and @TCO in that they are the most logical conclusions. The owners who are conviently wanting the league to be voided is because of the situation their club faces such as Karen Brady's West Ham or fans of teams looking at it more from a "HA BANTER" perspective. 

The top level of the National League have not yet decided their solution, owing to seeing what the EFL do. The season has (wrongly in my view) been voided from Level 7 down, which is below the National North/South.

If they relegate Stevenage on PPG, I presume that means they will promote the top two from the National League. Barrow deserve it, but it was tight for 2nd behind them so someone is going to feel aggrieved.

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I think there's still an appeal going on further down isn't there, unsurprisingly there's a hell of a lot of almost promoted teams not best pleased about the season being annulled.

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1 hour ago, Adam said:

If they relegate Stevenage on PPG, I presume that means they will promote the top two from the National League. Barrow deserve it, but it was tight for 2nd behind them so someone is going to feel aggrieved.

Tell me about it.

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33 minutes ago, Colly said:

I think there's still an appeal going on further down isn't there, unsurprisingly there's a hell of a lot of almost promoted teams not best pleased about the season being annulled.

I may have missed it but I don't think so. The FA Council ratified the decision to void although South Shields were one club threatening legal action.

I hope they have a change of heart on it because if they do PPG in the professional leagues there is no reason not to do it at Non-League as well.

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There's definitely still rumblings, couple of hundred clubs wrote to the FA, and the below is quite interesting given what's likely to happen in the top two leagues. 

Stockton Town were my local shaftees, they're not best pleased.

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Clubs in the Championship are aiming for 25 May as a possible date to return to training, after the government published guidance for a tentative first step back based on sessions with physical distancing between players.

At a meeting on Wednesday Championship clubs reaffirmed that they do want to finish the 2019-20 season if possible and will now discuss with players a prospective return on that date.

Following a board meeting also held on Wednesday, clubs in League One and League Two will discuss their options on Friday, with a majority view said to be moving towards a decision not to try to complete the season. The practical and safety hurdles for training again and looking to play matches behind closed doors are not balanced in those lower divisions by a major financial benefit from playing.

Players’ contracts that are scheduled to conclude at the end of a season generally do so on 30 June so clubs will face further costs of paying out‑of‑contract players if they resume and extend the season beyond that date.

If the season is cancelled, consideration would be given to how final places will be determined, with the most likely format being a points-per-game average allocated for the outstanding matches. The idea of still holding a round of play-off matches to determine final promotion places is likely also to be discussed.

The EFL chairman, Rick Parry, told the Commons select committee for digital, culture, media and sport last week that the league is collectively facing a potential £200m deficit caused by football’s suspension because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Championship clubs, who receive the bulk of the EFL’s TV deal and Premier League “solidarity” payments, still have some financial incentive to try to finish the season, and clubs with a chance of promotion remain keen.

The guidance for training published by the DCMS is aimed at allowing elite and professional sportspeople to “initially carry out individual performance training at an official elite training venue” provided they keep two metres apart from each other.

In a statement, the EFL said: “Current attention is clearly on the immediate next steps, but the long-term impact on the League and its clubs remains as stark as previously outlined, and solutions are still required to fill the financial hole left by the crisis. The consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic will not be rectified simply by a return to play behind closed doors.

“In addition, the EFL is mindful of the pressing need for clarity in a number of areas, including the practicalities and timeframes of clubs being able to facilitate a return to training. To address this, clubs have today been issued with the latest draft of the EFL’s ‘Return to Training Protocols’, so that they can prepare appropriately.

“However, until all outstanding matters are concluded, including finalising a comprehensive testing programme on matchdays and non-matchdays, the EFL board has informed its clubs that a return to training should not take place until 25 May at the earliest.”

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