The Barclays Premier League Thread 2013/14

[MJB]

Sad to see Nemanja go but it's not a surprise. He had too many injuries really but he was still one of the best in the world from 2007 to 2010. Two new CB's needed now, although I've got no idea who Moyes should target.

[Nerf]

Welp, there goes my 'all someone needs to do then is do the game a service and injure Suarez' point.

I mean, obviously it's a much smaller sample size, but our points ratio has actually been better when Suarez wasn't playing.

[The Lusophone]

Do you feel like you play through Suarez too much then? How's Sturridge done since Suarez has been back?

[Jimmy]

Okay, but realistically, all weird stats aside, United are 7 points behind Liverpool. 7 points is nothing. Spurs are 3 points behind Liverpool. I'll remind everyone that Spurs were about 10 points ahead of Arsenal last year, and they still beat us to 4th. I wouldn't write anyone off yet, there's too many variables. It only takes one team to go on an insane run, or a poor one, for everything to change. I think a lot of it is going to come out of the head to head games in the top 7.

[Nerf]

Do you feel like you play through Suarez too much then? How's Sturridge done since Suarez has been back?

Ten goals in eleven appearances since Suarez returned from suspension.

I think the main problem we have is that accommodating Suarez and Sturridge together sacrifices anything resembling a functional midfield. But yeah, we are certainly not as reliant on Suarez as people think we are. Obviously with a player of his quality, though, it's just the icing on the cake.

[brenchill]

How can you earn 1.68 points per game?

It's 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

[Colly]

Okay, but realistically, all weird stats aside, United are 7 points behind Liverpool. 7 points is nothing. Spurs are 3 points behind Liverpool. I'll remind everyone that Spurs were about 10 points ahead of Arsenal last year, and they still beat us to 4th. I wouldn't write anyone off yet, there's too many variables. It only takes one team to go on an insane run, or a poor one, for everything to change.

Indeed, 'assuming points per game ratios remain constant' just isn't a great way to assess a 38 game football season, mainly because the difference between the ratios are so small and the number of games is too. If Arsenal get something at Anfield tomorrow and Man Utd beat Fulham it's a 4 or 5 point gap, Spurs and Everton are caught, and the momentum starts to shift. I'm not saying they'll do it, but to suggest they're out of the race is daft.

How can you earn 1.68 points per game?

It's 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

:/

[brenchill]

:/

[Blue Rosler]

Sad to see Nemanja go but it's not a surprise. He had too many injuries really but he was still one of the best in the world from 2007 to 2010. Two new CB's needed now, although I've got no idea who Moyes should target.

Maybe better targeting an already established partnership. Otherwise he's risking his new two big-name CBs don't mesh well together.

[Nerf]

Okay, but realistically, all weird stats aside, United are 7 points behind Liverpool. 7 points is nothing. Spurs are 3 points behind Liverpool. I'll remind everyone that Spurs were about 10 points ahead of Arsenal last year, and they still beat us to 4th. I wouldn't write anyone off yet, there's too many variables. It only takes one team to go on an insane run, or a poor one, for everything to change.

Indeed, 'assuming points per game ratios remain constant' just isn't a great way to assess a 38 game football season, mainly because the difference between the ratios are so small and the number of games is too. If Arsenal get something at Anfield tomorrow and Man Utd beat Fulham it's a 4 or 5 point gap, Spurs and Everton are caught, and the momentum starts to shift. I'm not saying they'll do it, but to suggest they're out of the race is daft.

Oh, I'm not saying it's gospel or anything. The main thing I took away from those stats is that United need ten wins from fourteen just to reach 70 points.

[Blue Rosler]

Regardless of whether they get Champions League football, Man Utd will always be able to attract bigger name players than Liverpool. They've got the name value and can spend more on wages.

Maybe they'll also join the fun and pinch some of Liverpool's potential signings too.

[Nerf]

Regardless of whether they get Champions League football, Man Utd will always be able to attract bigger name players than Liverpool. They've got the name value and can spend more on wages.

Maybe they'll also join the fun and pinch some of Liverpool's potential signings too.

United are actually mostly reliant on CL money and sponsorships. A year out of the Champions League wouldn't do them any harm, but if they 'pull a Liverpool,' it'd be disastrous for them.

[Colly]

Okay, but realistically, all weird stats aside, United are 7 points behind Liverpool. 7 points is nothing. Spurs are 3 points behind Liverpool. I'll remind everyone that Spurs were about 10 points ahead of Arsenal last year, and they still beat us to 4th. I wouldn't write anyone off yet, there's too many variables. It only takes one team to go on an insane run, or a poor one, for everything to change.

Indeed, 'assuming points per game ratios remain constant' just isn't a great way to assess a 38 game football season, mainly because the difference between the ratios are so small and the number of games is too. If Arsenal get something at Anfield tomorrow and Man Utd beat Fulham it's a 4 or 5 point gap, Spurs and Everton are caught, and the momentum starts to shift. I'm not saying they'll do it, but to suggest they're out of the race is daft.

Oh, I'm not saying it's gospel or anything. The main thing I took away from those stats is that United need ten wins from fourteen just to reach 70 points.

And Spurs and Everton need 9 and Liverpool need 8. It's barely a stat, you might as well have just looked at the league table...

Newcastle need 11, let's go!

[brenchill]

I hope they do go down hill. They've won literally everything for my entire life. Give someone else a go.

[Jimmy]

Frank De Boer says he is interested in managing either Tottenham orLiverpool in the future as both clubs are his "cup of tea".

The Dutchman, currently in charge of Ajax, turned down an approach from Spurs following André Villas-Boas' sacking earlier this season as he was not prepared to leave Holland mid-way through the season.

However, De Boer has now admitted that he would be interested in coaching the club and he may come under consideration again should Tim Sherwood not be kept on long-term.

The Liverpool job sems less likely with Brendan Rodgers retaining strong support from the owners.

De Boer told the BBC World Football Show: "Those two clubs [Liverpool and Spurs] are clubs that I think in the future I could be a manager of. I think the history of the clubs and what you can do with the team is my cup of tea."

But the former Ajax, Barcelona and Rangers defender added: "I'm not really thinking about it because I'm very happy here at Ajax. I'm not in a hurry to leave because everybody is still happy with me.

"I step in my car with a big smile to go to the club. I don't think I'm finished here but there will come a time when I don't like it any more or the club doesn't like me anymore. Then we have to go both ways."

[METALMAN]

Over the last eight seasons, it's taken just over 70 points on average to clinch top four. Liverpool are currently averaging 1.96 points per game, which puts them on pace for 74 points. Everton are earning 1.88 points per game, which would be good for 71 points. Tottenham are on 1.83 points per game, on course for 70 points. United are earning 1.64 points per game, heading for a frankly disastrous 63 points. Of course, this all assumes that those three teams will maintain or better their form so far in the campaign, but even if they don't, United would need to win ten of their last fourteen games just to reach 70 points. Even that would only put them on par with Spurs and would require Liverpool and Everton to dip in form a lot. Liverpool would have to plummet all the way to 1.62 points per game to meet the 70 point criteria, and even then would have the advantage of goal differential.

No offence, but that's probably the most fucking boring thing ever posted on this forum. You could probably get a job writing for the Guardian's sport section.

[brenchill]

The average points thing is very silly, I must admit.

Like I said, it's 3 for a win and 1 for a draw. Stop over complicating the game.

[METALMAN]

The whole model just doesn't work. To carry out a reliable statistical analysis you need to root out everything but your dependent variable - that being the team. That's impossible. Each team has played different teams at different times. Teams have altered their squad in the transfer window, and they will play teams who have altered their squad in the transfer window. It's impossible to maintain any consistency, so it's a completely unreliable method to use. It doesn't tell you anything apart from what has happened already. It's useless.

Sam Allardyce and Steve McLaren are managers who rely upon statistics.

Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho rely upon their expertise in motivating and man management.

Compare their track records.

[Colly]

Boooooooooring.

Also, McLarens track record is good!

[MDK]

This is like reading Nytol