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NFL 2022


Lineker

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Awards are given out tonight but I think just about all the main ones (MVP, OPOTY, DPOTY, OROTY, DROTY) feel like foregone conclusions.  Coach of the Year is the only one I'm not sure of as there are legitimate cases to be made for all of the three nominees (Daboll, Pederson, Shanahan) and I don't know what will win the voters will value more between elevating an expected-to-be-shit team to the playoffs or navigating a season with a third string QB.

Hall of Fame will be announced too.  I think Joe Thomas definitely goes in first ballot.  8 All Pros in 11 years, played like 10,000 snaps in a row all for the woeful Browns.  Darrelle Revis also seems like a possible first timer.  The bar seems especially high for voters putting defensive guys in first year, but Revis is someone where his lower stats actually support his greatness.  His 29 INTs put him at only 233rd all time....and it's that low because teams just stopped throwing to him entirely.  To play against prime Revis was like having your top WR be inactive.

As for the other three Modern Era guys, I'll take a stab at DeMarcus Ware, Zach Thomas, and Torry Holt but that's really just total guesswork.  Invariably all of the finalists are deserving and they only put in 5 of the 15, so there's no real wrong answer and unfortunately there will always be a huge backlog.

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I'm surprised Ronde went in actually.  I mean he's obviously deserving but very often when they put someone in first ballot, they don't enshrine any other modern candidates from that same position.  With Revis going in I figured Ronde's spot would go to Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, as that WR logjam just never seems to get any better.

Devin Hester's omission is definitely causing the most gripes online.  Making it as a finalist twice already is a sign that he's got a good base of support among the voters, and everyone can acknowledge he's the best of all time at his position.  The struggles will always be getting over that final hurdle when voters have to decide if 20 touchdowns in like 650 return attempts is worth giving one of five Hall of Fame spots to over guys who were playing thousands of career snaps.

By no means am I trying to minimize what he did, I'd love to see him make it.  But that's always gonna be an argument in that final debate the voters have with each other.  He'll certainly go in someday, and there's no way he's gonna be waiting as long as Ray Guy.  But I think it's gonna be a while, probably once a lot of the older voters phase out of the process.

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22 hours ago, Justin Buschlander said:

I'm surprised Ronde went in actually.  I mean he's obviously deserving but very often when they put someone in first ballot, they don't enshrine any other modern candidates from that same position.  With Revis going in I figured Ronde's spot would go to Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne, as that WR logjam just never seems to get any better.

Devin Hester's omission is definitely causing the most gripes online.  Making it as a finalist twice already is a sign that he's got a good base of support among the voters, and everyone can acknowledge he's the best of all time at his position.  The struggles will always be getting over that final hurdle when voters have to decide if 20 touchdowns in like 650 return attempts is worth giving one of five Hall of Fame spots to over guys who were playing thousands of career snaps.

By no means am I trying to minimize what he did, I'd love to see him make it.  But that's always gonna be an argument in that final debate the voters have with each other.  He'll certainly go in someday, and there's no way he's gonna be waiting as long as Ray Guy.  But I think it's gonna be a while, probably once a lot of the older voters phase out of the process.

I'm surprised Ronde Barber got in, too.

The thinking on Devin Hester is probably that people think of him more as a return specialist than an actual WR, which is  because he has 4 more return TDs than receiving ones. I can't actually argue against that or justify him going in over the former players who were picked. 

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He's the best of all time at his position, which is why he was rightly a finalist.  But returners have an even more uphill climb than a kicker would because kickers have an impact in nearly every game, whereas even the best returner of all time scored on 3% of his returns.  I do think he's going to go in eventually but it's really hard to know how long he'll wait because there's no precedent.

Vinatieri will be the third pure kicker to go to the Hall, possibly as soon as 2025.  Tucker will definitely go in first ballot whenever he's eligible.  I don't know if Ray Guy will be joined with another punter anytime soon.  Shane Lechler's the only other guy with a real case as he statistically he was even better than Guy was, and on the NFL's 100th Anniversary team.  But he wasn't even a semi-finalist.  He'll likely go the way of the Senior Committee just like Guy did.

The lone specialist position that will never get into the HOF is long snapper.  You can't conclusively name who the best long snapper of all time is, because the job is rooted in anonymity.  You only ever hear a snapper's name when they make a horrible mistake.

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Long snapper should almost be a longevity induction. If a guy was a long snapper for 15+ years and every special teams unit he was on was good (i.e. not many blocks, snaps in target, etc) I think there's a strong case. But we're just beginning to approach special teams as "its own position" that should be graded on its own scale, so it'll take awhile for anyone to get in.

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5 minutes ago, Justin Buschlander said:

I always love these videos every year.  They started doing these things at home during COVID but I think it's way better this way.  Always seemed cruel when they'd fly all the finalists in just to keep most of them waiting in a hotel for a knock that never came.

Agree. Especially since the very large C. David Baker no longer delivers the knocks.

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1 hour ago, damhausen said:

Long snapper should almost be a longevity induction. If a guy was a long snapper for 15+ years and every special teams unit he was on was good (i.e. not many blocks, snaps in target, etc) I think there's a strong case. But we're just beginning to approach special teams as "its own position" that should be graded on its own scale, so it'll take awhile for anyone to get in.

I agree that Don Muhlbach should be a Hall of fame.

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2 hours ago, damhausen said:

Long snapper should almost be a longevity induction. If a guy was a long snapper for 15+ years and every special teams unit he was on was good (i.e. not many blocks, snaps in target, etc) I think there's a strong case. But we're just beginning to approach special teams as "its own position" that should be graded on its own scale, so it'll take awhile for anyone to get in.

Jon Dorenbos is the only long snapper I can actually name. And I only know of him for two reasons: Performing as a magician on America's Got Talent (He was damn good), and how his career ended: Diagnosed with a heart problem after being traded to the Saints, and it requiring surgery.

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